NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National has reopened a wide lead over Labour in the Herald DigiPoll survey, increasing pressure on the Government to produce a strong Budget to change its fortunes.
Labour is keen to avoid expectations running away on it on May 22, but a lot is riding on what it comes up with.
All eyes will be on the tax cuts - and any other surprises the Government might have up its sleeve - to help people struggling with high food, petrol and mortgage costs.
Of the voters polled in the DigiPoll survey, 22.1 per cent rated tax cuts as the issue most likely to influence their vote at this year's election.
That made tax cuts the most influential issue.
Further evidence that people's wallets may decide the election came from the economy's 18.5 per cent rating, making it the second most important issue.
Among Labour voters, tax cuts were also the most influential issue.
However, hospital waiting lists were a close second emphasising the delicate balance Finance Minister Michael Cullen must strike in his ninth Budget between cutting taxes and providing public services.
Dr Cullen was giving nothing away yesterday when asked about what might be done to alleviate the financial pressures households are feeling.
He said no decision had been made yet on the timing and size of tax cuts.
"That decision will be taken when I get the final updated forecast, which is tomorrow [Tuesday] evening," he said.
It is not known how the Government will offer the "timely" relief Helen Clark has spoken of this week, because tax cuts may not come into effect until April 1 next year.
National could govern alone with its 52.1 per cent support in the poll, which also gives John Key his highest rating as preferred Prime Minister of 48 per cent.
Prime Minister Helen Clark gained 45.3 per cent support.
Four weeks ago, Labour had narrowed the gap to 10 points.
But that has blown back out to 14.9 points after a month during which the Prime Minister trumpeted the Chinese free trade agreement, but also had to contend with unwanted distractions from Labour's election year congress.
National has gained 2.2 percentage points in the poll. Labour is down 2.1 points, on 37.2 per cent support.
The Greens will be heartened by their 5.2 per cent poll rating, which makes them the only minor party above the 5 per cent threshold.
New Zealand First failed to get a boost from a month of heavy publicity about free trade, state asset and immigration, and remains on 1.5 per cent.
The Budget is also likely to approve spending on improving broadband internet, something the Government was planning before National last week announced its surprise $1.5 billion plan.
Labour's move - which is likely to involve Government investment in a different form to National's, as well as financial help for a new transtasman cable - is part of a wider attempt to show the party still has the long-term vision needed to lead the country.
But National's deputy leader and finance spokesman, Bill English, last night said voters would be cynical about any attempt to "throw cash" around in the Budget.
"After eight years of lost opportunities, it's going to be hard for Labour to get the public's attention," he said.
The poll of 769 respondents was conducted between April 5 and 26, and has a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. The results are from decided voters only. Undecided voters totalled 6.3 per cent of those polled.
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