Bob’s departure is Winston’s opportunity – Colin Espiner

STUFF.CO.NZ: This article is from Colin Espiner's On the House blog. The graceful departure of Bob "the Builder" Clarkson from Tauranga provides his nemesis Winston Peters with a golden opportunity to re-take the seat, should he so choose.

Clarkson's announcement today that he won't stand again after all - I think he's changed his mind about three times now - is the right decision, both for National and for the people of Tauranga. It's been clear for a long time now that Clarkson's heart has not been in Parliament, which is not a place that suits everyone.

Like many other one-term MPs who thought they'd be able to "take a message to Wellington" and shake the place up a little, Bob Clarkson has discovered that it just doesn't work like that.

Clarkson, like Mark Blumsky who's also retiring, or Pam Corkery (remember her?) found that while they might be big shots in their own social circle or in local body politics, national politics is a whole different ball game. Just because Clarkson is reputably richer than John Key didn't stop him being a lowly back-bencher whose main function was lobby fodder and to taunt Winston Peters at every opportunity.

Clarkson, a very likeable guy, was nonetheless completely out of his depth in Wellington. Last year he said he thought politics was "more suited to bookworm types" by which I think he meant he thought he wasn't bright enough. Certainly Clarkson is no academic, but you don't have to have a degree in astrophysics to be any good at politics.

What you do have to have, though, is street smarts and an ability to understand what the public is thinking and feeling, plus at least some abilities as a public speaker.

Clarkson was woeful on all these counts. He's probably best known for his outburst against Muslims, which he said should "go back to Islam" and that those who wore burqas could be "crooks hiding guns". He also attempted to run "Good Jokers Unite" evenings in an Upper Hutt pub which were a dismal flop.

Bob Clarkson is in many respects a relic of a bygone political age. He probably would have fitted in better 30 years ago, when there weren't so many Shelias in Parliament and blokes still played pool and smoked outside the Debating Chamber.

Speaking of relics, though, his departure does provide Peters with the opportunity to extend his own political use-by date. While he has not made any firm commitments one way or the other, the loss of Tauranga by 700 votes in 2005 hurt badly and I don't think he would have contested the seat again this time if Clarkson had stayed. Peters had closed his Tauranga office and opened one in Auckland. Talk was that he might find an electorate where National would be accommodating, in much the same way as it is not pushing Rodney Hide terribly hard in Epsom.

But will Peters be able to resist another shot at Tauranga now? I think he'll have a crack. He'd rather go out on his own terms I think, and that would be by stepping down rather than being tipped out. Also he has a better chance there than in any of the Auckland seats. Given NZ First has almost no show of winning 5 per cent in the election, it's the party's best hope of remaining in Parliament.

It will be interesting to see who National chooses to replace Clarkson. Will it choose a relatively low-profile candidate in the belief that giving Peters an easy run could create the prospect of a new coalition partner? That would be a dangerous move. There's no guarantee Peters would support National even though he claims he will talk first to the largest party after the election.

Peters has bad blood with National and a mercurial temper. I don't think Key wants to deal with him unless he has absolutely no choice.

Picking a dull candidate would also send the wrong message. National needs more high-calibre people, particularly if it wants to be in government. Key is going to need some fresh blood, because some of the MPs who followed Clarkson into Parliament in 2005 have been frankly disappointing.

It also needs more women. Never over-represented in National at the best of times, the party is looking increasingly estrogen-lite. I know there is some concern within the party over this, particularly since most of the candidate selections so far have been overwhelmingly aging men.

Whoever decided it was a bright idea to replace the departing Dunedin North list MP Katherine Rich with a white, middle-aged man needs their head read.

This could go some way to being rectified if Amy Adams wins selection in Selwyn, or if National pulls more women into high list placings. But Tauranga would be a good place to start.