Future of MMP in doubt if National wins election

SUNDAY STAR TIMES: National is set to offer voters the chance to ditch MMP.

Leader John Key says his party's election platform is likely to include a two-stage MMP referendum.

Critics say a referendum would deliver what the business elite wanted, but Key said voters wanted to think about MMP and have the chance to reassess the voting system.

National's move comes as the latest Fairfax Media political poll puts the party on track for a landslide election win, with a 27-point advantage over Labour. The poll, which gives National 56% support and Labour just 29%, would make Key prime minister and hand his party a 13-seat majority.

MMP was introduced in 1996 after a two-stage referendum and more than a decade of debate.

Key said the first referendum would be at the 2011 election and would ask voters: "Are you satisfied with MMP as a system or would you prefer a change?" If there was a majority for change, the second referendum would offer a run-off between different voting systems.

The date for the second referendum had not yet been decided.

Key said he personally favoured some proportionality in the voting system.

"I personally would be surprised if we went back to first past the post."

Key said it had been National's policy in 2005 to offer referendums on MMP, and this would simply be a continuation of that policy. Asked for his personal view on the system, he said "some proportionality makes sense, it's a question of under what conditions and how volatile the outcomes can be".

But NZ First leader Winston Peters said he believed Key was putting forward the policy because it was what a "small proportion of the business elite" who were backing the party wanted.

They had funded the 1990s' fight against MMP, they had backed Roger Douglas, Ruth Richardson and Don Brash, and now they were backing Key.

"They have never left off. For them it's a very sound investment. They are like rust that never sleeps. They've got no belief in the democratic process and any device that can remove public opinion from the decision-making process, they are keen on."

Peters said NZ First would not say at this stage whether it would accept a referendum on MMP as part of any post-election coalition negotiations with National.

Greens co-leader Russel Norman said National seemed to want to return to "the good old days, when with a minority of the votes they can control the parliament".

The switch to MMP has seen coalition and minority governments become the norm, and has strengthened the hand of small parties. Women, Maori and minorities are more strongly represented in parliament.

Cross-party negotiation is now part of the daily work of government, but critics say it has been at the cost of strong, decisive decision-making.

Long-term MMP opponent Graeme Hunt said he had been working with businessman Peter Shirtcliffe and others in support of a referendum. He said they had lobbied National and had heard National's decision to back a referendum was due to be announced.

"I'd like to think we have had some influence," Hunt said. "A few of us have been lobbying for a referendum. I'm really thrilled, but I would like to see the timetable advanced. I would like to see it mid-term of the new government"

Shirtcliffe fronted a well-funded campaign against MMP in the lead-up to the 1993 referendum on the electoral system. Hunt would not say who else was involved in the campaign, but said they would be looking to form a broad-based group to advocate a change to MMP.

A UMR Insight Poll commissioned by a group including Hunt, Shirtcliffe and "a couple of private donors" in August last year found two-thirds of New Zealanders wanted a referendum on the future of MMP.

The poll also found that MMP was the most popular voting system, with 42% support, compared to 39% for first past the post.

Hunt said many New Zealanders didn't want to go back to first past the post, but would be happy with a more diluted form of proportionality which would still see a role for small parties.

 

SYSTEMS COMPARED

MMP: Each party's share of the seats in parliament closely matches the party's share of the party vote. Just under half of parliament's 122 MPs are party list MPs. Coalition or minority government and deal-making is the norm, and small parties are represented.

First past the post: All the seats in parliament are directly elected through constituencies. The voting system tends to produce two big, main parties. Majority government and strong government is the norm and smaller parties tend to be squeezed out.