October 18 probable election date – John Key

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Five months today we'll be going to the polls - at least if the whispers in the corridors of power are to be believed.

Several political sources, including National Party deputy leader Bill English, say they have heard October 18 will be Labour's chosen general election date.

Prime Minister Helen Clark is overseas and her office did not return Herald on Sunday calls yesterday.

But National leader John Key said October 18 was "a logical date". November 15 was the last date the election could be held, but waiting that long would make Labour look desperate, he said.

Political science professor Nigel Roberts, of Victoria University, said he had heard October 18 bandied about but warned that the Government might want voters to believe that. "If I were Helen Clark my attitude would be to keep them guessing."

Commentator Bill Ralston said the election would have to be kept away from the Beijing Olympics, between August 8 and August 24.

October has not been a popular month for elections but Ralston said Labour governments usually plumped for warmer election days after midwinter.

By October 18, the country should be well into spring, with daylight saving restarting on September 28.

Schools would have finished the first week of term 4 and people would be positive about the Labour Day weekend starting on Saturday, October 25.

THE PREVIOUS FIVE

Past five election dates:

* September 17, 2005

* July 27, 2002

* November 27, 1999

* October 12, 1996

* November 6, 1993