Fairfax Media Poll: August 2008

STUFF.CO.NZ: Labour has just weeks to turn around a likely election rout before Prime Minister Helen Clark names the day she goes to the polls.

Today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll has National shrugging off one of its worst weeks under John Key to maintain a seemingly unassailable lead - up three percentage points to 54 per cent support, compared with Labour, which is steady on 35. The rise is even more marked for Mr Key. His popularity as preferred prime minister is up four points to 43, with Miss Clark on 31.

The result is a blow to Labour's hopes that a mini recovery in last month's poll signalled the start of a fightback before an election date must be named.

Equally alarmingly for the Government, the lift in National's support comes despite unguarded comments by National MPs to a cocktail party saboteur who leaked recordings of deputy leader Bill English's suggestion that state-owned Kiwibank might be sold "eventually".

His apparent undermining of Mr Key sparked Labour warnings that National had a hidden agenda. But voters appear to have taken those warnings with a grain of salt, and marked the affair down as loose talk, rather than a signal of sinister intentions.

The poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the cocktail party controversy, over the seven days till Tuesday.

That will buoy National as it prepares to unveil its party list tomorrow.

But that may be checked by the finding that its promise to outspend Labour on tax cuts is looking less credible to voters, now it has also pledged to retain Working for Families and other Labour policies.

Just 35 per cent of voters questioned for today's poll thought National would still be able to afford bigger tax cuts than those outlined by Labour - compared with 48 per cent who thought not.

The poll showed, meanwhile, that voters are somewhat less gloomy about their economic prospects than four months ago, with 45 per cent believing their financial situation would improve in the next 12 months, compared with 30 per cent who thought it would get worse.

In April, the figures were 42 per cent and 39 per cent respectively.

Miss Clark must name an election date by mid-October - but that is assuming an election on the last possible date, November 15.

It would also assume a shorter-than-usual campaign - and Labour has more to gain from a longer, rather than shorter, run on the campaign trail.

So the pressure will be on for Miss Clark to name a date by mid-September - just weeks from now.

But in a sign of just how unstoppable National's lead looks, today's poll comes as it prepares to break with tradition and announce a record 73 candidates for its list - compared with its usual 65.

On current polling, that would leave it short of MPs. In recent years, Labour has also moved to a longer list.

Sitting MPs are expected to be ranked in the top 50 on National's list but new-comer Steven Joyce, a former campaign manager, is expected to vault ahead of some into a higher ranking. Another might be Maungakiekie candidate Sam Lotu-liga.

Former All Black Michael Jones is understood to have been courted but eventually decided against running.

The poll surveyed 1102 voters and has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent. The party vote results excluded 11 per cent of voters who answered "don't know".