Monday, 18 August 2008

One News/Colmar Brunton Poll: August 2008

ONE NEWS: National is on track to win gold in this year's election despite recent unwelcome headlines.

Prime Minister Helen Clark has picked up support but is still trailing in National leader John Key's wake.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was caught up in the saga over receiving secret donations from wealthy businessmen.

And secret tapes hinted at leadership divisions and a secret agenda in the National Party.

But despite the drama, it doesn't seem to have hurt the party. National still has the support of more than half of all voters.

Labour has closed the gap a little, now on 37%. But Labour's gain is the Greens' loss. They are polling just 3.5%. The Maori Party sits just above 3%, New Zealand First is in deep trouble on 2.6% and United Future and the Act Party barely registered.

Parliament would change dramatically on these results. National would have 66 seats, Labour 48, and assuming they hold their electorates, the Maori Party picks up four and United Future, Act and the Progressives one each. But without electorate seats and polling under 5%, both New Zealand First and the Greens are out of parliament.

Clark was grieving this weekend after losing her guide and friend in a remote mountain hut, but the political battle grinds on.

Key is in front as preferred Prime Minister on 36%, Clark is tracking up and only just behind on 33%. Peters has lost ground and is down on 3%.

The New Zealand First leader is well off the pace and on these poll numbers it would be time to hang up his hat.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

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