National loses absolute majority in latest 3 News Poll: August 2008

3 NEWS: Labour is on the move. The latest 3 News poll shows that less than three months out from the election, their support is heading upwards.

And once you add the Greens and the Maori Party into the mix, a Labour-led coalition is not out of the running just yet.

National is still in control though.

Helen Clark's smile has been all over her dial this week; her experience and strength on the international stage is rarely questioned.

Perhaps she knows the man who wants her job won't be getting it without a fight, and perhaps a fright.

The secret tapes saga does not appear to have been fatal for National. It remains steady on 48 percent.

But Labour has crept up to 37 percent, the closest it has been all winter.

Crucially, Labour's potential coalition partner the Greens are on six percent, down one.

Winston Peters' New Zealand First is suffering from the fallout over who funds his party, dropping one point to three percent, below the crucial MMP threshold to make it back into Parliament without an electorate seat.

Act is up one point to two percent, a level of support that would see Roger Douglas return to Parliament.

The Maori Party is on two percent, United Future one percent.

Take these results into Parliament and John Key's National can almost govern alone with 60 seats. It would need Act's three seats to get it across the line.

The poll results show how tight it really is under MMP: in opposition, Labour would have 46 seats, the Greens seven, Maori four, Jim Anderton's Progressives one and United Future also with one.

That adds up to 59 seats, proof National can not afford a bad campaign, and that Winston Peters' antics are not popular.

On these results, Peters is out of Parliament. Only a fool writes him off, but has his horse bolted?

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes, John Key is up two to 34 percent, and Helen Clark moves up three to 31 percent - further proof she is not dead yet.

But Peters is on the slide, down to four percent.

More people now think Clark is performing well, up six points to 63 percent, and fewer people think she is doing a bad job.

For Key, the trend is good too. He is up amongst those who think he is rollicking along, and fewer people think he is doing a bad job .

So while this is still Key's and National's election to lose, Clark is heading in the right direction, and as far as recent polls go, she will consider this 11-point gap close.

And for Key, it's not sleepless nights yet, but it's not exactly sleep-easy.

The poll of 1000 voters was taken between August 14 and August 20, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.