Tanzcos wants the Greens to move away from Labour

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Green Party MP, Nandor Tanzcos, says it is time for the Green Party to step out from under the Labour Party's umbrella.

In a speech to the party's conference in Auckland on Friday night, he told party faithful supporting the Labour Party at the last election was a mistake.

Mr Tanzcos says the Greens should have continued their talks with the Maori Party. The idea has been raised of the two parties working more closely this year.

The party believes it is in a stronger position going into this years general election than ever before.

The co-leader, Russel Norman, says political positioning in terms of post-election negotiations will be discussed on Saturday, and the decision released on Sunday.

He says it will probably decide more of a process than outcome.

Russel Norman says the Green Party hopes to get more than 10% of the party vote this election.

Tanzcos criticises Ward

Mr Tanzcos has also criticised the former Green MP Mike Ward for not stepping aside to make way for co-leader Russel Norman to become an MP before the election.

Mr Ward, who has a higher placing than Mr Norman on the party's list, is not at the conference.

Mr Tanzcos says any list MP retiring at the election should give up their seat to let "fresh blood" into the party.

Helen Clark says Maori should decide on seats future

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Prime Minister says the future of the Maori seats is a matter for Maori.

Helen Clark says the Labour Party has a consistent approach to the Maori seats and a significant number of Maori opt for the Maori roll.

"The Labour Party's view is that that should be a choice for Maori."

A new report by University of Canterbury professor of law Philip Joseph contends Maori no longer need the Maori seats to achieve proportional representation in Parliament.

He says Maori now have a 19% representation in Parliament, above the national population of 14%.

Mr Joseph also says the seats are outdated and have kept Maori issues out of mainstream political debate.

Referendum needed - United Future

The United Future Party on Friday called for a referendum on the future of the seats.

The party's leader, Peter Dunne, says New Zealand needs an electoral system that represents all New Zealanders equally.

Mr Dunne says Maori have improved their representation under MMP to such an extent that it supports a recommendation by a Royal Commission in 1985 that MMP should lead to the abolition of the Maori seats.

The seats were created in the 1860s as a temporary measure to ensure Maori without land title could vote.

There are now seven seats, based on the number of voters on the Maori roll.

Mallard claims National involved in asset sale talks

DOMINION POST: The National Party is angrily denying accusations that leader John Key has had secret talks with Australian financiers about state-owned assets - and says his accuser, Trevor Mallard, is not believable.

Mr Mallard, Labour's 10th-ranked Cabinet minister, accused Mr Key yesterday of secret talks about plans to sell the assets of State Owned Enterprises and lease them back.

He suggested this was a way for National to get around its promise not to sell any SOEs.

Mr Mallard was behind the "American bagman" allegations that dogged former National leader Don Brash at the last election.

A National Party spokesman said yesterday that Mr Mallard's accusations were "bullshit" and it was "not happening".

He said National was still waiting for Mr Mallard to prove his American bagman accusations.

Is Benson-Pope considering an Independent future?

NZPA: Labour MP David Benson-Pope says he remains loyal to the party, despite rumours he is preparing for a tilt at the Dunedin South seat as an independent.

Mr Benson-Pope currently holds the seat, but lost the right to stand as Labour's candidate at the election after he lost a tight selection battle following his forced exit from Cabinet.

The third-term MP has previously indicated he will not stand as an independent, but the Otago Daily Times reported today he had been telling people that under MMP they could vote for Labour with their party vote, but give their candidate vote to anyone they chose.

Mr Benson-Pope, who did not immediately return calls to NZPA today, told the newspaper: "My loyalty to the party is beyond question and I don't intend to change that. I understand what loyalty means."

Mr Benson-Pope is understood to have strong support in some branches of the electorate, but electorate committee chairman Richard Good told the newspaper public support was 100 per cent behind the new candidate Clare Curran.

NZ Herald Digi-Poll – May 2008

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Labour's tax-cutting Budget has had no immediate impact on its poll rating in today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, the first major poll that includes a large post-Budget sample.

The economy has moved into top spot as the issue most likely to influence voters in this year's election, just nudging out tax cuts, which is the second most important issue.

Labour has moved down one point to 36.2 per cent but National has also moved down fractionally, by 0.6 to 51.5.

The gap between the two main parties has barely budged from last month's poll: 15.3 points, compared with 14.9 last month. National would still be able to govern alone.

National leader John Key continues to poll just ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, 44.6 per cent to 42.3 per cent.

If anyone received a lift from the Budget, it was New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who claimed significant gains for the elderly.

His personal ratings as preferred prime minister more than doubled to 6.7 per cent.

But that boost has not been replicated in support for his party (1.9 per cent, up 0.4 points).

On those figures, unless Mr Peters won Tauranga or another electorate, NZ First would not make it back into Parliament.

The poll of decided voters was taken over three weeks in May. Two-thirds of respondents were polled before the Budget and almost one-third (418 people) after it. The margin of error on the post-Budget sample is bigger than the pre-Budget sample.

The support levels for the parties changed slightly in the samples taken before and after the Budget. Labour was on 36.5 per cent before the Budget, and 35.3 per cent after it.

National was on 51.7 per cent before the Budget and 51.2 after it.

On the basis of this poll the Greens would comfortably get over the 5 per cent threshold and return to Parliament with eight MPs, two more than now.

The poll's pre- and post-Budget movements were more pronounced for Helen Clark and Winston Peters in the choice of preferred prime minister.

Helen Clark dropped 3.6 points and Winston Peters jumped 4.3 points in the post-Budget sample.

Overall, compared to last month's poll, Mr Peters is up 3.5 points, Mr Key is down 3.4 and Helen Clark is down 3.

Economic news dominated the headlines in May with the price of petrol passing $2 a litre and a lot of coverage on interest rates and stress on household budgets.

The Government announced a delay in including liquid fuels in the emissions trading scheme,which National announced it would not support.

The head of the Immigration Service, Mary Anne Thompson, resigned in disgrace. And Finance Minister Michael Cullen set out plans for $10.6 billion in tax cuts over three years.

Translated to seats in the House, National would get 63 and could govern alone.

When respondents were asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote at the election, 26.7 per cent said the economy, 22.5 per cent said tax cuts and 11.7 per cent said hospital waiting lists.

Mr Key said last night that the economic issues the country was facing were weighing directly on the polls. "On the back of that, the Budget doesn't appear to be having any major impact because the dominant factor is the economic malaise that is washing over the country."

Helen Clark could not be contacted.

* The poll of 1279 respondents was taken between May 5 and May 28 and the margin of error on the total sample is 2.7 per cent. The margin of error on the 418 polled after the Budget is 4.6 per cent. The percentage of undecided respondents was 13.8 per cent.

Another of National’s infamous U-Turns – this time on Kiwi Saver

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party's industrial relations spokesperson, Kate Wilkinson, has backtracked on her suggestion that the party would scrap compulsory employer contributions to KiwiSaver.

The Government had seized on the comments as proof that National would undermine the scheme.

However, on Tuesday Ms Wilkinson put out a statement saying the employer contributions would be retained.

Earlier in the day, when asked about compulsory employer contributions at an employment relations forum, Ms Wilkinson told delegates that National did not believe in compulsion.

But she now says her comments were wrong and do not reflect party policy.

Youth are political footballs, say youth leaders

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Some youth leaders fear young people are becoming scapegoats for political arguments in the lead up to the election.

In January, the National party leader John Key suggested army-style training for young offenders who commit serious crimes.

The Labour party then promised to keep students in some form of compulsory education until the age of 18.

But Sarah Helm from the organisation, Aotearoa Adolescent Health and Development, says young people aren't the only ones committing crimes.

She says nobody is advocating army style training for other age groups.

 

You can hear more on this issue on Insight, available from Radio New Zealand by clicking here.

Kiwi Party the latest global warming sceptic

ONE NEWS: The Kiwi Party is the latest to declare its hand on Emissions Trading, describing the government's scheme as a joke and calling for it to be scrapped.

Leader Larry Baldock feels the proposed scheme would put the economy under the stress of increased regulation and says that would be a stupid move, when there is no evidence to prove global warming. He says he is yet to see proof the Earth's average temperature has increased since 1998.

Baldock says if the government really wanted to make a difference, it should plant more trees and properly insulate people's homes.

Moreover, he claims it has been clear for some time that the Kyoto Protocol is full of inconsistencies and anomalies.

Baldock's line will be unlikely to find favour with the two major parties, which have publicly acknowledged that global warming is a reality and that precautions should be taken, but his Emissions Trading scheme scepticism has been echoed by National.

But Baldock insists that after eight years, Labour has done very little for the environment at all.

He feels the idea New Zealand should lead the way in saving the planet is a fairly lofty one.

Support for MMP mixed

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Kiwis are split in their support for MMP, according to a new online survey, and 53 per cent supported a referendum on the voting system's future.

The ShapeNZ survey quizzed 2872 respondents, weighted to reflect the population, after budget announcements. Forty per cent agreed with MMP (mixed member proportional representation), while 42 per cent opposed it and 18 per cent were undecided.

More people thought MMP hadn't worked well to date (46 per cent) than those who were satisfied with its performance (39 per cent).

Support for MMP was strongest in Labour and Green voters. People who voted for National in 2005 were almost twice as likely to find fault with MMP than Labour supporters.

Budget ’08: The budget in brief

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Finance Minister Michael Cullen delivered his ninth Budget in Parliament on Thursday, announcing a $10.6 billion package of tax cuts over four years, to start from October 2008.

Dr Cullen presented his Budget with the Government languishing in the polls and facing the prospect of a heavy defeat in the election later this year.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says this year's Budget was drawn up against a backdrop of a slowing international economy.

Miss Clark says that last occurred in 1998 under a National government, which cut superannuation, sold Contact Energy and under-invested in health and education.

She says the Budget balances the need for tax relief and the need to maintain investment in critical public services such as health, education and housing.

The National Party says tax cuts announced are "too little, too late."

 

Personal tax cuts

Apart from a new low tax rate, there are no changes to other rates, with cuts being delivered through income threshold adjustments.

From 1 October, earnings up to $14,000 will be taxed at the new rate of 12.5%.

The next band of earnings up to $40,000 will be taxed at 21%, moving the threshold up from $38,000.

The threshold for the 33% tax rate will move from $60,000 to $70,000.

Earnings over $70,000 will be taxed at 39%.

From 1 October this year, all thresholds rise and move up again in 2010 and 2011. People will get an average of $12 to $28 a week extra, rising to between $21 and $55 a week in 2011.

Dr Cullen says he is confident the tax cut package will not add to inflationary pressures. He says recent disappointing employment figures, and declining retail and housing figures are signs inflation is cooling.

Dr Cullen says the Treasury predicts with the tax cut package, the Consumer Price Index will be back within 1% to 3% over the forecast period.

He says the tax cuts will enable the Government to keep debt at around 20% of gross domestic product.

 

Working for Families payments boosted

The Government has also brought forward increases to Working for Families payments to adjust for inflation, worth $1.1 billion over four years.

The Family Tax Credit will increase, which will benefit all eligible families.

The family income threshold for Working For Families will also be increased. For any income over $35,000 a year, there will be a $7-a-week increase to the tax credit.

Under the changes, a one wage family on $45,000 a year with two young children will get an extra $30.83 a week from this October, rising to $62.82 in 2011.

 

Health and education

In health, the Government has committed extra, ongoing, annual funding of $500 million a year to cover the pressures of population growth and rising costs faced by District Health Boards.

DHBs will also receive $170 million over four years for better regional and national collaboration.

In education, $215.5 million has been committed to reducing class sizes for five-year-olds, providing one teacher to 15 new entrants. There is also $63.6 million to lower early childhood education fees.

In tertiary education, students will be able to borrow an extra $5 a week for living costs, and more students will be able to get allowances.

 

Other major annoucements

Police will receive an extra $180 million in operational funding, and $9.5 million for more police staff, as part of Labour's support agreement with NZ First.

In communications, $325 million will go towards the fast roll-out of broadband, targetting businesses, schools, universities and extending into rural areas.

 

Budget details: http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/special.

The Govt’s $36m plan to revitalise shipping

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Government has promised $36 million over four years to try to double the level of coastal shipping by 2040.

Transport Minister Annette King announced the Government's Sea Change policy on Tuesday to increase the use of ships for freight around New Zealand from 15% to 20% by 2020, and 30% by 2040.

Ms King promised $6 million next year, with a further $10 million each year up until 2012.

Ms King says plans must be made to ease roading pressures, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions. She says an integrated transport system for freight will help to create an environment in which businesses can prosper.

The Government will also set a new sea freight development unit to promote coastal shipping and collect more information on the industry.

New Zealand Shipping Federation president Rod Grout says coastal shipping has a big role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decongesting roads.

Mr Grout says it will be up to shipping companies to put criteria together to apply for the funding.

Fairfax poll attacked by PM

THE PRESS/STUFF WEBSITE: Prime Minister Helen Clark has launched an attack on Fairfax Media's political opinion poll, claiming it is "way out of line'' and favours National over Labour.

Clark's criticism of the poll, conducted for The Press and other Fairfax titles by respected Australian and New Zealand pollster Nielsen, follows a shocking survey result for the Government at the weekend.

Nielsen's poll of 1091 people, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent, put National on 56 per cent support and Labour on 29 per cent - a gap of 27 points and the party's worst showing since 1996.

The Greens were steady on 6 per cent in the poll , New Zealand First was up two to 5 per cent, the Maori Party slipped one to 2 per cent and ACT and United Future were stuck on 1 per cent.

Clark was offered the opportunity to comment on the poll last Friday before its publication but declined.

However, on her return from overseas yesterday, she came out firing, telling TVNZ's Breakfast that she did not accept the Fairfax poll and Newstalk ZB that it was "totally out of line'' with other polls.

Questioned at her post-Cabinet press conference yesterday, Clark said she stood by her criticism of the poll.

"You could look at a range of polls and draw the conclusion for yourself that it was out of line.''

Asked if she believed it favoured the National Party, Clark said: "That would be the evidence from looking at a range of other polls, yes.''

She cited a recent Insight poll, which Clark said was taken over the same time period, that returned an 11-point margin.

"The Insight one has been rather conservative in estimating Labour's support. Even that, in the same time period, is showing a very different result.''

The Insight poll had National on 51 points and Labour on 35 - still a 16-point gap.

However, Clark maintained even this result was not the feedback that Leg 3Labour was receiving. "It's perfectly obvious that this year's a tough challenge. It's always been a tough challenge,'' Clark said.

"It's made a particularly tough challenge because you have an international economic slowdown, the fallout from the subprime crisis in the United States which has impacted on mortgage rates here without the Reserve Bank lifting a finger, you have a huge spike in oil prices - none of these the fault of the New Zealand Government.''

Clark said she believed New Zealanders would begin comparing Labour and National "and it's my intention that the Labour Party will be very competitive''.

Fairfax group executive editor Paul Thompson said Fairfax believed Nielsen methodology was sound. "I am not surprised by the Prime Minister's comments given what was a very bad result for Labour.''

Finance Minister calls National reckless over tax cuts

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Finance Minister Michael Cullen has gone on the attack as National threatens to hijack his crucial Budget week by hinting it will offer much larger tax cuts than Labour is expected to dish out.

Dr Cullen yesterday called journalists to his office as he tried to discredit statements from National Party leader John Key suggesting National's election-year tax cut offer might be worth as much as $50 a week.

It is possible Dr Cullen's tax cuts - to be announced on Thursday - could be worth about half that figure, and yesterday he criticised Mr Key as "reckless" for making such statements when he hadn't seen the Government's revised fiscal forecasts.

"He's just plucked it out of the air," Dr Cullen said.

"He's shown an inability to be careful about issues which are actually pretty important."

Mr Key's comments appeared to suggest he is keen to come up with a tax cut programme similar to the one he had as National's finance spokesman in 2005, when cuts of $10 to $90 a week were offered to taxpayers.

A lot is riding on Dr Cullen's tax cut package, which will be a three-year programme that he plans to legislate for on Budget night.

Passing legislation immediately will allow him to say the tax cuts are locked in - something he admitted was needed after small changes he announced in 2005 were later canned.

"The difficulty we've had obviously with the 2005 announcement is that we didn't legislate," Dr Cullen said.

"Other priorities took charge after that - I think people want an assurance this time that those cuts are put in place."

The Treasury has put aside $1.5 billion in the Government's accounts for personal tax reductions and the Reserve Bank has also factored a package worth that amount into its thinking on interest rates.

But as the economy turns gloomy, worries about inflationary pressure stemming from tax cuts appear to be subsiding.

Dr Cullen yesterday said the Reserve Bank might well want to revise its views on that in light of changing circumstances in the economy.

Asked if there was room for bigger tax cuts without worrying about inflation, Dr Cullen was coy.

"I could not possibly say that at this point. I'll say it on Thursday afternoon."

Speculation about the likely size of Dr Cullen's tax cut programme centres around $2 billion, stretching to maybe as much as $2.5 billion.

One measure he appeared to rule out was a one-off lump-sum payment - or so-called 'social dividend' - to taxpayers that could be issued with tax threshold adjustments or rate changes.

Dr Cullen said speculation about that had "no basis at all".

The tax cut battle looks to be heading down a similar path to previous years, although the difference is that Dr Cullen is also offering cuts.

Arguments centre on how much is too much, and how much will lead to cuts in social services such as health, education and superannuation.

Dr Cullen said Mr Key should wait for the Government's new fiscal forecasts to see what can actually be done.

"He'll find there isn't a lot of room left after Thursday afternoon."

Phil Goff admits Labour may lose election

ONE NEWS: National believes comments from Cabinet Minister Phil Goff on the Labour leadership were deliberate.

In a television interview due to air on Tuesday night, Goff says if Helen Clark stands aside as leader after the election he would consider putting himself forward for the job.

He also raises the possibility that Labour might lose the election.

The issue has been a hot topic in parliament on Tuesday afternoon.

National Leader John Key says while he's surprised at Goff's actions, he can only conclude he was happy to have his comments in the public domain.

Key is questioning whether Clark can have confidence in Goff.

The National leader says Goff not only thinks it's time for a change, but is also telling people that the Prime Minister's leadership is toast.

But Clark herself pointed out National's recent leadership changes.

She says Key is the fifth leader of National that she has dealt with and there are more leadership issues within National.

Clark says the story is a beat-up.

John Key signalling large tax cuts

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: National Party leader John Key is signalling that his party will offer large tax cuts but says it still has not determined the detail of its policy.

Mr Key says National's 2005 policy - which involved tax cuts ranging from $10 to $92 a week - could be used as a guide to the policy for this year's election.

Radio New Zealand's political editor says Mr Key is being careful to not make any specific promises yet on tax.

He reports Mr Key cannot even give a commitment that National will scrap the top marginal tax rate of 39 cents, but is hinting it is likely to go.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen says Mr Key is irresponsible if he is going to offer large tax cuts.

Dr Cullen - who will deliver a tax cut package in the Budget on Thursday - says that will show the Government's financial position is not as good as it was.

NZ First accuses National of somersault on MMP

ONE NEWS: There has been a scathing response to the National Party and its idea of a referendum on MMP.

National leader John Key says part of its election policy will likely include plans for a referendum in 2011 to see if people want a change, and if they do, a second vote later on.

But critics are accusing Key of trying to go back to old ways and systems simply to get an electoral advantage.

MMP Mixed Member Proportional was introduced in 1996 following a history of a First Past the Post electoral system.

New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters says the reality is you have to ask if MMP is working better than any other system.

He says many people will remember what it was like under first past the post between 1984 and 1996 when parties abandoned their manifestos and governed for the few and the very few.

Peters says National passed laws enabling MMP back in 1993 and it is extraordinary National is now doing a somersault given that all the key players who were there in 1993 are still sitting on the party's front bench.

But Key says it is not about removing a system that disadvantages his party, but rather a continuation of a policy National has had at the past two elections.

He wants to continue MMP but says there is an overwhelming view that people have not had a chance to confirm MMP.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says the government has made the system work fairly well and many more voices have come into the policy and legislation making processes than ever before.

Victoria University political scientist Therese Arseneau says any review of MMP should look into what is wrong with the current system and to fix it.

She says one of the concerns people have is how easy it is for some parties to enter parliament.

Future of MMP in doubt if National wins election

SUNDAY STAR TIMES: National is set to offer voters the chance to ditch MMP.

Leader John Key says his party's election platform is likely to include a two-stage MMP referendum.

Critics say a referendum would deliver what the business elite wanted, but Key said voters wanted to think about MMP and have the chance to reassess the voting system.

National's move comes as the latest Fairfax Media political poll puts the party on track for a landslide election win, with a 27-point advantage over Labour. The poll, which gives National 56% support and Labour just 29%, would make Key prime minister and hand his party a 13-seat majority.

MMP was introduced in 1996 after a two-stage referendum and more than a decade of debate.

Key said the first referendum would be at the 2011 election and would ask voters: "Are you satisfied with MMP as a system or would you prefer a change?" If there was a majority for change, the second referendum would offer a run-off between different voting systems.

The date for the second referendum had not yet been decided.

Key said he personally favoured some proportionality in the voting system.

"I personally would be surprised if we went back to first past the post."

Key said it had been National's policy in 2005 to offer referendums on MMP, and this would simply be a continuation of that policy. Asked for his personal view on the system, he said "some proportionality makes sense, it's a question of under what conditions and how volatile the outcomes can be".

But NZ First leader Winston Peters said he believed Key was putting forward the policy because it was what a "small proportion of the business elite" who were backing the party wanted.

They had funded the 1990s' fight against MMP, they had backed Roger Douglas, Ruth Richardson and Don Brash, and now they were backing Key.

"They have never left off. For them it's a very sound investment. They are like rust that never sleeps. They've got no belief in the democratic process and any device that can remove public opinion from the decision-making process, they are keen on."

Peters said NZ First would not say at this stage whether it would accept a referendum on MMP as part of any post-election coalition negotiations with National.

Greens co-leader Russel Norman said National seemed to want to return to "the good old days, when with a minority of the votes they can control the parliament".

The switch to MMP has seen coalition and minority governments become the norm, and has strengthened the hand of small parties. Women, Maori and minorities are more strongly represented in parliament.

Cross-party negotiation is now part of the daily work of government, but critics say it has been at the cost of strong, decisive decision-making.

Long-term MMP opponent Graeme Hunt said he had been working with businessman Peter Shirtcliffe and others in support of a referendum. He said they had lobbied National and had heard National's decision to back a referendum was due to be announced.

"I'd like to think we have had some influence," Hunt said. "A few of us have been lobbying for a referendum. I'm really thrilled, but I would like to see the timetable advanced. I would like to see it mid-term of the new government"

Shirtcliffe fronted a well-funded campaign against MMP in the lead-up to the 1993 referendum on the electoral system. Hunt would not say who else was involved in the campaign, but said they would be looking to form a broad-based group to advocate a change to MMP.

A UMR Insight Poll commissioned by a group including Hunt, Shirtcliffe and "a couple of private donors" in August last year found two-thirds of New Zealanders wanted a referendum on the future of MMP.

The poll also found that MMP was the most popular voting system, with 42% support, compared to 39% for first past the post.

Hunt said many New Zealanders didn't want to go back to first past the post, but would be happy with a more diluted form of proportionality which would still see a role for small parties.

 

SYSTEMS COMPARED

MMP: Each party's share of the seats in parliament closely matches the party's share of the party vote. Just under half of parliament's 122 MPs are party list MPs. Coalition or minority government and deal-making is the norm, and small parties are represented.

First past the post: All the seats in parliament are directly elected through constituencies. The voting system tends to produce two big, main parties. Majority government and strong government is the norm and smaller parties tend to be squeezed out.

October 18 probable election date – John Key

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Five months today we'll be going to the polls - at least if the whispers in the corridors of power are to be believed.

Several political sources, including National Party deputy leader Bill English, say they have heard October 18 will be Labour's chosen general election date.

Prime Minister Helen Clark is overseas and her office did not return Herald on Sunday calls yesterday.

But National leader John Key said October 18 was "a logical date". November 15 was the last date the election could be held, but waiting that long would make Labour look desperate, he said.

Political science professor Nigel Roberts, of Victoria University, said he had heard October 18 bandied about but warned that the Government might want voters to believe that. "If I were Helen Clark my attitude would be to keep them guessing."

Commentator Bill Ralston said the election would have to be kept away from the Beijing Olympics, between August 8 and August 24.

October has not been a popular month for elections but Ralston said Labour governments usually plumped for warmer election days after midwinter.

By October 18, the country should be well into spring, with daylight saving restarting on September 28.

Schools would have finished the first week of term 4 and people would be positive about the Labour Day weekend starting on Saturday, October 25.

THE PREVIOUS FIVE

Past five election dates:

* September 17, 2005

* July 27, 2002

* November 27, 1999

* October 12, 1996

* November 6, 1993

Read Dr. Michael Cullen’s full pre-Budget speech

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Read Dr. Cullen's full speech to the Canterbury Manufacturers Association. Click here.

National will invest railways, while opposing Govt. Buying Toll NZ

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party says it would invest in the country's railway tracks despite its opposition to the Government's purchase of Toll New Zealand.

The Government intends to spend more than $400 million to upgrade the tracks over the next five years.

The National Party opposed the purchase when it was announced last week, however its policy is not to sell any state-owned assets in a first term in office.

Deputy leader Bill English says the party would be a good steward of the rail system if it forms a government after the election.

He says hundreds of millions of dollars in investment will be required, including in the track, over the next five years.

The Government says National cannot be trusted, given its opposition to buying back the country's rail and ferry assets.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen says the Government will spend much more on upgrading the tracks than it will on buying new trains and rolling stock.

The Government-owned OnTrack, which runs the tracks, has already spent about $200 million.

But over the next five years spending is set to increase to $449 million, to try to lift capacity on key routes.

These include the Auckland to Tauranga line, the coal route between the West Coast and the port of Lyttelton and lines carrying dairy product in Northland.

Green’s announce party list

ONE NEWS: There are no major surprises in the release of the Green Party list for the upcoming election.

Five of the six current MPs feature in the top six, while co-leader Russel Norman is the only new addition at number two.

Nandor Tanczos is the only MP to not feature on the list, as he is quitting parliament.

Metiria Turei has moved up two places on the list to fourth, while Sue Kedgley has dropped back two to sixth.

West Coast District Health Board chief executive Kevin Hague is seventh on the list, campaigner Catherine Delahunty is eighth and law lecturer Kennedy Graham is at ninth. The other newcomers to the top 12 are David Clendon, Gareth Hughes and Steffan Browning.

"New Zealanders have come to expect high standards from the Greens and the calibre of this list stands up to that test," say Greens co-leaders Russel Norman and Jeanette Fitzsimons in a statement.

"The Green list combines experience and passion.

"These are people who care deeply about the future of Aotearoa New Zealand and have a track record of working to make our country and our world a better place."

More information on the candidates can be found on the Green website.

Labour hasn’t lost the election yet - commentator

ONE NEWS: A political commentator believes the National Party is resisting the temptation to sound too radical following their key election year speech.

Leader John Key has addressed party faithful at a regional conference in Dunedin.

Commentator Graeme Hunt says the speech only really puts forward two points of difference between National and the government - its stance on tax cuts, and a focus on the education system and academic standards.

However, he expects the election to be fought on economic issues, and feels the promise of tax cuts could prove tempting for many voters.

He says offering meaningful tax cuts is at least one way the party can differentiate itself from Labour.

Hunt says many New Zealanders are looking at the government's current tax take and do not feel as if they are getting value for money, even when that money is being put back into state services.

However, he feels Labour has far from lost the election, but thinks they will focus more on issues of nationalisation - like the buyout of the national rail network - rather than putting money back into people's pockets.

National promises a crackdown on “P”

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party says it will crack down on gangs making and distributing the drug methamphetamine, or 'P'.

Party leader John Key says National will crack down on gangs making and distributing it.

Mr Key says cabinet papers show efforts to reduce the amount of 'P' are not working and around one in 10 offences are committed by people using the drug.

National also wants to look into banning known 'P' dealers and manufacturers from being released on electronic bail or home detention.

Mr Key says National will give the police more power to listen to gang communications.

However, Justice Minister Annette King says there is already a bill before Parliament to give police greater powers to hunt down gangs.

National chooses its Selwyn candidate

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: National has picked a farmer with a legal background as its candidate for the South Island seat of Selwyn, after a failed legal challenge over the selection process.

Amy Adams, 36, won the nomination in a second selection process after the original candidate, MP David Carter, opted to stand aside in favour of running on the party list alone.

A legal challenge by an unsucessful candidate, who was blocked by the board of the National Party, was thrown out of court earlier in May.

Mrs Adams is a mother of two and runs a 600-acre farm with her husband. She was previously a partner in a Christchurch law firm.

Kiwi Party use Mother’s Day to target voters

ONE NEWS: One of the newest political parties is trying to seize upon Mothers Day as an opportunity to pitch for mums' votes in this year's election.

The Kiwi Party is promising it will give mothers back their parental authority to physically discipline their children by this time next year, something it claims National, Labour, and United Future took away.

Leader Larry Baldock says the party's petition to force a referendum on the anti-smacking bill will be complete within six weeks.

He says the law change has made life difficult for parents who know the difference between a smack, and the kind of abuse everybody is against.

Mr Baldock says mothers all over the country are outraged at the Government interfering in their role as parents.

However, the actual suggestion that life has become more difficult for law-abiding parents under the law reform has been disputed - one December 2007 police report suggested police were investigating one smacking-related complaint on average per week nationwide.

Bob’s departure is Winston’s opportunity – Colin Espiner

STUFF.CO.NZ: This article is from Colin Espiner's On the House blog. The graceful departure of Bob "the Builder" Clarkson from Tauranga provides his nemesis Winston Peters with a golden opportunity to re-take the seat, should he so choose.

Clarkson's announcement today that he won't stand again after all - I think he's changed his mind about three times now - is the right decision, both for National and for the people of Tauranga. It's been clear for a long time now that Clarkson's heart has not been in Parliament, which is not a place that suits everyone.

Like many other one-term MPs who thought they'd be able to "take a message to Wellington" and shake the place up a little, Bob Clarkson has discovered that it just doesn't work like that.

Clarkson, like Mark Blumsky who's also retiring, or Pam Corkery (remember her?) found that while they might be big shots in their own social circle or in local body politics, national politics is a whole different ball game. Just because Clarkson is reputably richer than John Key didn't stop him being a lowly back-bencher whose main function was lobby fodder and to taunt Winston Peters at every opportunity.

Clarkson, a very likeable guy, was nonetheless completely out of his depth in Wellington. Last year he said he thought politics was "more suited to bookworm types" by which I think he meant he thought he wasn't bright enough. Certainly Clarkson is no academic, but you don't have to have a degree in astrophysics to be any good at politics.

What you do have to have, though, is street smarts and an ability to understand what the public is thinking and feeling, plus at least some abilities as a public speaker.

Clarkson was woeful on all these counts. He's probably best known for his outburst against Muslims, which he said should "go back to Islam" and that those who wore burqas could be "crooks hiding guns". He also attempted to run "Good Jokers Unite" evenings in an Upper Hutt pub which were a dismal flop.

Bob Clarkson is in many respects a relic of a bygone political age. He probably would have fitted in better 30 years ago, when there weren't so many Shelias in Parliament and blokes still played pool and smoked outside the Debating Chamber.

Speaking of relics, though, his departure does provide Peters with the opportunity to extend his own political use-by date. While he has not made any firm commitments one way or the other, the loss of Tauranga by 700 votes in 2005 hurt badly and I don't think he would have contested the seat again this time if Clarkson had stayed. Peters had closed his Tauranga office and opened one in Auckland. Talk was that he might find an electorate where National would be accommodating, in much the same way as it is not pushing Rodney Hide terribly hard in Epsom.

But will Peters be able to resist another shot at Tauranga now? I think he'll have a crack. He'd rather go out on his own terms I think, and that would be by stepping down rather than being tipped out. Also he has a better chance there than in any of the Auckland seats. Given NZ First has almost no show of winning 5 per cent in the election, it's the party's best hope of remaining in Parliament.

It will be interesting to see who National chooses to replace Clarkson. Will it choose a relatively low-profile candidate in the belief that giving Peters an easy run could create the prospect of a new coalition partner? That would be a dangerous move. There's no guarantee Peters would support National even though he claims he will talk first to the largest party after the election.

Peters has bad blood with National and a mercurial temper. I don't think Key wants to deal with him unless he has absolutely no choice.

Picking a dull candidate would also send the wrong message. National needs more high-calibre people, particularly if it wants to be in government. Key is going to need some fresh blood, because some of the MPs who followed Clarkson into Parliament in 2005 have been frankly disappointing.

It also needs more women. Never over-represented in National at the best of times, the party is looking increasingly estrogen-lite. I know there is some concern within the party over this, particularly since most of the candidate selections so far have been overwhelmingly aging men.

Whoever decided it was a bright idea to replace the departing Dunedin North list MP Katherine Rich with a white, middle-aged man needs their head read.

This could go some way to being rectified if Amy Adams wins selection in Selwyn, or if National pulls more women into high list placings. But Tauranga would be a good place to start.

Mr Cunliffe previews Govts. Broadband package

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Communications Minister David Cunliffe says the Government will soon outline its own financial package to propel fibre broadband technology to the home, in response to the National Party's $1.5 billion plan.

Mr Cunliffe told the Telecommunications Users Association conference in Wellington on Thursday he had an ambitious plan of his own to tackle the shift from copper wires to fibre within a decade.

He said National's plan would reinforce Telecom's dominance, but ruled out funding and setting up a publicly-funded fibre network company.

The minister said the Government's plan would be competitive, support an open market, and be 'technology neutral'.

"The abiding flaw with what the National Party's talking about, is that a nationwide capital tender can, in effect, only be partnered by one organisation, which sets that up to dictate the terms, and set up a new dominance, and we will avoid that in our design."

National Party finance spokesman Bill English told the conference its $1.5 billion fibre plan will need to make a return.

While there are no details at the moment, Mr English said National's plan will involve partnerships with the private sector.

"Some of the providers I've talked to think that the answer to this is for the government to own the network and expect no return on it so everyone can offer cheap services. Well we ain't gonna do that."

He said that to be competitive and dynamic, there must be some investment pressure.

Mr English also admitted he had been sceptical about the benefits of public investment in telecommunications.

But he told the audience that opening up Telecom's network requires Crown money, as firms will no longer take all the risk, and National recognises that to get investment in fibre sooner rather than later, the Crown needs to front up with the cash.

Bob Clarkson stepping down

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National MP "Bob the builder" Clarkson will not stand at the next election - changing his mind after only a few months ago saying he would stand.

Mr Clarkson headed off New Zealand First leader and incumbent Tauranga MP Winston Peters at the last election.

After vacillating over whether he would stay in politics, Mr Clarkson in January said he would stand again at this year's election.

But today he said he would go.

"I stepped right out of my comfort zone when trying to help National win in 2005 and have watched on in horror at the Labour Government's wastefulness and poor decision-making during my three years in Parliament," he said today.

"I can see that National will win in 2008. It has a very strong team to take the country forward and I am happy to make room for a younger candidate to represent Tauranga in government."

Mr Clarkson, 69, said he was 100 per cent committed to National and its leader John Key, and would support the party's new candidate to "make sure" National held the Tauranga seat at this year's election.

He would keep working as the Tauranga MP until the election.

Mr Key said National wanted to win Tauranga and was moving quickly to select a replacement candidate.

Mr Clarkson had made no secret of the fact he felt Parliament was not for him.

Last year the straight-talking MP said he frequently felt out of place in Parliament, which was much better suited to "bookworm types".

He questioned whether he would be able to achieve much as a backbench MP and said that he was also getting on in age and had other things he wanted to achieve.

He has described himself as an "achievement driven guy".

He liked to build things and it was his background in construction that saw him get the nickname "Bob the builder".

Mr Peters and Mr Clarkson had a tense and acrimonious battle for the Tauranga seat in 2005, with Mr Peters playing a role in the airing of sexual harassment allegations by a former employee of Mr Clarkson.

After Mr Clarkson won the seat, Mr Peters challenged his campaign spending, but Mr Clarkson was found to have stayed within his spending limit.

Mr Peters has been overseas in his role as foreign minister and today is in London.

His spokesman said Mr Peters did not want to comment at this stage, other than to say that his and New Zealand First's decisions were not based on what the National Party was doing.

Mr Peters is expected to stand again in Tauranga, although he has not confirmed this.

National able to choose Selwyn candidate

NZPA / STUFF.CO.NZ: National has cleared the legal hurdles blocking it from choosing a candidate for the South Island seat of Selwyn.

Disgruntled National Party candidate Roger Payne yesterday lost his High Court challenge to the process which saw him shut out of the contest.

Mr Payne won an injunction last month preventing National from proceeding with selection meetings in the new blue-ribbon electorate.

He argued that National had breached the Electoral Act and principles of natural justice by following an undemocratic process.

The High Court judgment said the National Party board was entitled to block candidates it believed were not suitable as long as it was democratically elected.

The party had explained to the court why it did not believe Mr Payne was suitable, but the court said even that was not necessary.

Mr Payne contested the selection of National MP Brian Connell in 2002 and subsequently tried to have the selection overturned by questioning the validity of Mr Connell's CV.

This time Mr Payne was the only one of nine candidates to be dumped from the pre-selection phase without an interview.

The decision means National can go ahead with its delayed Selwyn selection meetings. The selection is a five-way contest after National MP David Carter pulled out after complaints about his selection. He will stand on the party list.

Among those standing are Environment Canterbury councillor Angus McKay and Alex McKinnon, the nephew of former National deputy prime minister Don McKinnon.

Last year Mr Carter, National's agriculture spokesman, was selected unopposed but selection was reopened when 35 party members complained that other candidates were pressured to stand aside.

The Selwyn electorate takes in rural areas of Banks Peninsula, including Mr Carter's farm, and much of Mr Connell's Rakaia electorate, after last year's boundary changes.

Mr Connell is retiring at the next election after spending much of this term suspended from the National caucus.

Budget ’08: Cullen - No tax-free threshold

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Finance Minister Michael Cullen has laid out what voters won't get in tax cuts - but given few clues about what they will get beyond warning they "cannot be huge".

In his first pre-Budget speech, Dr Cullen said the promised tax cuts would not take the form of a tax-free threshold, despite this being his initial preference.

However, he promised all workers would benefit in some way, and indicated middle and low to middle income earners were the main targets of his plans.

In a speech to the Chartered Accountants Institute, he said voters need not expect to have money thrown at them saying "the truth is, tax cuts cannot be huge".

In keeping with his tax cuts test that they should not increase inequalities, he said while Labour recognised the need for some relief across the economy, the need was more acute at the bottom end of the income ladder.

"Spending recklessly on upper and upper-middle income groups would be potentially advantageous but also irresponsible and would detract from what could be provided for all workers."

He said he initially considered a tax-free income threshold which was popular in the wider community, the Labour Party and union movements.

However, he discounted it after officials said it would benefit few on incomes under $18,000 and would cost $3.9 billion by the third year, leaving little for "meaningful relief for those further up the income scale that have missed out on previous rounds of tax relief".

He also downplayed what people could expect from his three-year programme of cuts, which will be announced on May 22.

He said Budget forecasts would show lower growth and tax revenue, which made it harder to balance delivering tax cuts with the need for spending on government programmes and investment in infrastructure.

Nor would polls scare him into spending up large, despite media commentators arguing a decent Budget was one of Labour's last chances for a boost in support.

"We will not buy into media spin that a big-bang Budget is vital to electoral success when delivering such a Budget would be a recipe for economic failure."

He said the lack of tax cuts in previous years had funded policies dear to Labour's heart, such as paying off debt, Working for Families, increasing pensions, a stronger benefit system and investing in government services such as health. It had also enabled the country to better withstand the current global economic pressures.

National's Bill English said Dr Cullen's address sounded like "a legacy speech".

"It's him setting out what he's done before he jumps over the political cliff."

National would remove childhood centres licensing regulations

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party says it will remove the need for early childhood centres to get a second licence if they cater for more than 50 children.

The regulation requiring a second licence has been in place since 1960.

National's associate education spokeswoman Paula Bennett says the regulation is a nonsense and leads to a doubling up of reporting and paperwork.

She says there are already mechanisms in place to make sure classrooms are not overcrowded.

Education Minister Chris Carter says early childhood organisations do not support the change.

Many unaware of upcoming election

NEW ZEALAND HERALD and NZPA: A drive to get voters enrolled for this year's election starts today as a survey reveals that many people are unaware an election is looming.

Retail manager Cynthia Teoh, 37, an immigrant from Singapore, was blissfully unaware the election is looming - even though she has received letters from the electoral commission asking her to enrol.

"I thought they were just standard letters sent out to everyone, how would I know it meant an election was going to be held?" Ms Teoh, who moved to New Zealand in 2006, said. "Besides, I also feel that I don't know enough about New Zealand politics to vote or to even enrol to vote."

Ms Teoh is not alone, and such ignorance and apathy is indeed widespread - and it is against such a backdrop that a nationwide drive starts today to get voters enrolled.

A Research New Zealand study found 55 per cent of Pacific Islanders, 53 per cent of people aged 18 to 24 years, 45 per cent of those of Asian descent and 41 per cent of Maori did not know it was an election year.

The study did not include Pakeha New Zealanders because previous surveys had shown these four groups as "most disengaged with the elections", an Electoral Enrolment Centre spokesperson said.

In 2005, 72 per cent of all eligible voters knew at this stage it was election year, but that has dropped to less than two-thirds for 2008.

National MP Pansy Wong blamed the Electoral Finance Act for contributing to the low level of awareness for this year's election.

"Most MPs, if they're honest, will say that we are frustrated with the act because we don't know what we can and cannot say," she said. "Most are apprehensive about even mentioning that this is election year in their communications and newsletters because it can be interpreted as being part of their campaigning, and this really doesn't help with heightening awareness."

The Electoral Enrolment Centre is preparing to post packs to all those currently enrolled - 92.35 per cent of the estimated eligible population. "Our enrolment drive is a key step to getting New Zealanders ready for the election, but we are doing it at a time when research tells us there are low levels of awareness," Centre national manager Murray Wicks said.

An estimated 237,000 people - 108,800 of them aged 18-24 years - are not enrolled.

People who are 18 or older can enrol, provided they are a New Zealander or permanent resident and have lived in New Zealand for more than one year continuously.

To get an enrolment form or update their details, voters can text their name and address to 3676, visit any PostShop or Citizens Advice Bureau or visit elections.org.nz.

United Future reveals health policy

ONE NEWS: United Future has unveiled it's election year health policy and believes better incentives are needed to keep healthcare workers in New Zealand.

The party says fees for medicine and nursing courses need to be cut and bonding schemes introduced in fields where there are severe staffing shortages.

It's also proposing to attract foreign health workers to New Zealand by setting up a working holiday programme.

United Future's policy also proposes using the private sector to reduce public waiting lists.

"We have long waiting lists for elective surgery, but there is spare capacity in the private health system," says Judy Turner United Future deputy leader.

Turner says there are glaring deficiencies in the New Zealand health system that need urgent fixing up.

She says the cost of healthcare continues to rise at twice the rate of inflation, but the country has a growing ageing population with greater health needs and a declining number of taxpayers.

Turner also says we pay for primary healthcare but subsidise, or make secondary care free - the only OECD nation to do so.

"This is plain nuts," she says.

"Our health policy is based on the principles that prevention is better than cure and people have to take individual responsibility for their healthcare."

Turner says it is difficult to overstate the flood of problems that confront the New Zealand health sector.

She cites obesity and diabetic epidemics the full force of which are yet to hit home.

"Thirty percent of deaths are diet related. Six percent die from lack of fruit and vegetables - three times the road toll."

Alcohol, tobacco and drug abuse are significant contributors to poor health outcomes in New Zealand which also has high incidence of sexually transmitted infections, she says.

The need for an effective, efficient healthcare system is as great, if not greater, than it has ever been, she says.

Download this policy.

Electoral Commission reveals party donation returns

Secret Santas have gifted tens of thousands of dollars to political parties for the last time.

The Electoral Commission last night released party donation returns for 2007, the final year in which parties could receive big money gifts from anonymous donors.

They showed that both Labour and National have shy and generous supporters, with the major parties receiving $230,000 and $553,000 respectively from unidentified individuals or trusts.

All contributions of more than $10,000 must be declared, and Labour's total donations of just over $1 million has been swelled considerably by the majority of its MPs contributing a portion of their salary towards the cost of repaying taxpayer's money Auditor General Kevin Brady found had been unlawfully spent on advertising during the last election.

Prime Minister Helen Clark gave her party $29,099 last year, with her deputy Michael Cullen forking out $24,802. Cabinet Ministers paid between $16,000 and $19,000 to the party, while backbenchers gave between $10,000 and $11,000.

The biggest single donation to Labour was an anonymous offering of $150,000.

National amassed $704,000 in donations. The Waitemata Trust, a secretive organisation which has showered National in cash in previous years, made up the majority of that figure with its $424,100 donation.

Corporates Toll New Zealand ($25,000), Fletcher Building ($20,000) and Westpac ($15,000) gave money to both major parties.

Of the minor parties, the Greens received $181,046 in donations, with their six MPs each gifting the party five-figure sums.

The Maori Party received one $70,000 donation, while United Future and Jim Anderton's Progressive Party received none. The Commission had not received returns from ACT and New Zealand First by yesterday's due date.

New rules contained within the Electoral Finance Act now govern donations to political parties.

Under the new regime, parties can only accept anonymous donations in sums up to $1000 and must publicly disclose all donations of more than $20,000.

Any donors who want to stay anonymous to parties and the public must give sums of more than $1000 to the Electoral Commission to pass on to the parties as a protected donation.

Individuals can only give up to $36,000 and parties can only accept up to $240,000 every three years in protected undisclosed donations.

IN THE MONEY

Labour: $230,000 of donations "on behalf of undisclosed clients" via: Palmer Theron law firm: $150,000, Simpson Grierson: $50,000, Morrison Kent lawyers: $30,000

National: $553,100 in anonymous donations and others through trusts: Waitemata Trust: $424,100, Ruahine Trust: $69,000, Nationalist Trust of Timaru: $20,000, Anonymous: $15,000, Anonymous: $25,000

 

Click here for full donation details.

Act will stand in Māori seats

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Act Party intends to stand candidates in the seven Maori seats in the election, despite its policy to abolish the seats.

It has not contested the Maori electorates since the 1999 general election, but party leader Rodney Hide says it wants to reach out to as many voters as possible.

He says Act has always been upfront about its policies, including the abolition of the Maori seats and opposition to Treaty of Waitangi settlements.

Mr Hide says it has made the decision to stand in the seats, in principle, and now has to find suitable candidates.

Cabinet minister Shane Jones is accusing the Act and Maori parties of conspiring to secure more votes.

He says Act will try to harvest the party vote, while promoting the Maori Party candidates in the seats.

The Maori and Act parties have rejected the claims as ridiculous.