Greens worried by National's PR firm

ONE NEWS: The Greens are concerned at reports National is using the services of Australian PR firm Crosby Textor.

National is refusing to confirm or deny claims made by journalist Nicky Hager that the firm is providing support to its leader John Key.

Green Party co-leader Russel Norman says people have a right to know and National should come clean on any dealings with Crosby Textor.

Norman says National should be running a clean campaign and Crosby Textor are renowned for dirty political tactics.

National's sport and children related policy released

ONE NEWS: National's questioning why there needs to be at least eight different government programmes encouraging people to eat healthier and exercise more.

John Key is vowing to re-prioritise the funding spent on anti-obesity campaigns onto programmes aimed at getting children into sport.

The party has released their policy on children and sport, an issue he says is a priority.

Key says sport is an important part of growing up in New Zealand, and not enough of the government's funding is getting through to where it's needed.

An example of bureaucracy is shown by SPARC's budget over the next three years of $315 million, where around a third of that will be spent on administration costs, Key points out.

Key says a National government would bring in a shift in emphasis and reprioritise government funds currently dedicated to a host of bureaucratic anti-obesity campaigns.

He says schools will be supported to ensure they continue to provide physical education classes, but there will not be an increase in the amount of PE classes they need to provide.

You can read John Key's announcement by clicking here.

Māori Party still won't reveal coalition partner

ONE NEWS: The Maori Party will not reveal which of the two major parties it will work with till after the election.

Co-leader Tariana Turia told TV ONE's Agenda programme that any deal would also need the agreement of the party's supporters.
While the Maori Party could take ministerial roles under a National or Labour-led government it would not necessarily be in a formal coalition.

"I mean in the end the most important thing for me is not about the baubles of office to give you power, but to have the power to make a difference and that's my main interest," said Turia.

Turia also confirmed on Sunday that the next term would be her last.

NZ First next to breach Electoral Finance Act

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: New Zealand First will co-operate fully with a police investigation into whether a banner on a private property breached the Electoral Finance Act, leader Winston Peters says.

NZ First is the first party to be reported to the police for allegedly breaching the Electoral Finance Act (EFA) after the Electoral Commission yesterday said the erection of the banner warranted investigation.

National's deputy leader Bill English complained about the banner, which was put up on a Tauranga property and did not include the authorisation of the party's financial agent - as all material deemed election advertising must under the EFA.

The commission's decision said NZ First's financial agent did not respond to its request for comment on the complaint.

Mr Peters today said the apparent breach was the result of an "over-enthusiastic supporter" unaware of the EFA despite the party sending out information on its provisions.

The banner was one that had been used in previous elections.

"We will help the police with their investigation into this incident and provide any information they seek."

However, he said he was still trying to establish all the facts and he was not yet sure a definite breach had taken place.

Mr Peters said the delay in responding to the commission may have been because the party was still trying to gather all the facts.

"However, the law is to be abided and if there has been a breach of the law we will do our utmost to ensure it doesn't happen again and ... that one of our supporters doesn't do that again," he said on Radio New Zealand.

If NZ First, which voted for the law, was prosecuted and found guilty it would pay any fine, he said.

The NZ First matter was one of four decisions released by the commission. The other three complaints were dismissed.

A complaint from The New Zealand Herald's political editor Audrey Young that a National Party flyer "Join the conversation" was an election advertisement was rejected.

It said the leaflet did not encourage people to vote and was described by National as not talking about the election, but about listening to people and developing policy, both of which were legitimate parliamentary activities.

Two other complaints regarding Green Party posters and a billboard were rejected by the commission as inconsequential or not to have been breaches of the EFA.

The commission is dealing with a small barrage of complaints and requests for clarification of the law.

One of these concerns whether logos could be deemed to be election advertising and therefore in need of a promoters statement.

Since the National Party leaflet "Join the conversation" contains logos and has no promoters statement it appears likely the commission will rule that logos alone do not need them either.

- NZPA

NZ Herald Digi-Poll: June 2008

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Labour's support in Auckland has dropped dramatically in the Herald's latest DigiPoll survey after a month in which violence in South Auckland and soaring petrol prices dominated the public's attention.

The June Herald-DigiPoll shows Labour's support in Auckland has dropped to 28.2 per cent - 10 points down from last month when it was sitting on 38 per cent support.

It is also well behind National, which 58 per cent of decided voters in Auckland supported.

National also increased its nationwide support to 54.9 per cent - its highest level since the Herald-DigiPoll survey began - and widened the gap between the two parties from 15 points in May to 22.5 points this month.

Labour's nationwide support has dropped four points since last month to 32.4 per cent, but the drubbing in Auckland - often described as the place elections are won and lost - will be of major concern for the party.

However, Helen Clark's standing in the preferred Prime Minister stakes has not been hurt - she rose to 45 per cent, while John Key dropped one point to 46 per cent.

The polling period took in a month dominated by crime following a spate of homicides and violence in South Auckland. Yesterday, a spokeswoman for the Prime Minister said this had clearly impacted on the polls.

However, she said Helen Clark's leadership on the matter was reflected in the preferred Prime Minister rankings.

National Party leader John Key said Labour's lack of action on violent crime had lost it support.

"This confirms the trend in other polls that people are rejecting Labour's economic management and are frustrated by the increasingly violent society for which it has no answers."

The economy continued to rate as the top issue likely to affect respondents' vote (23.8 per cent).

But public concern about crime saw law and order selected as the next issue most likely to affect voting, rising to nearly a quarter of respondents (23.4 per cent) - up from just 11 per cent in May. It overtook tax cuts (19 per cent) as the second biggest issue.

Among the minor parties, NZ First received a boost to 3.3 per cent - tantalisingly close to the 5 per cent threshold for automatically qualifying for seats in Parliament - after the month's emphasis on crime and the Super Gold Card gains leader Winston Peters secured in the Budget.

The Green Party (5.9 per cent) remained the only smaller party polling over 5 per cent.

This is also the first full DigiPoll survey since the Budget and shows Labour has not reaped any dividends from targeting low- and middle-income earners with its tax cuts package and help under Working for Families.

National has made inroads into one of Labour's strongest support bases - those on low incomes. Among households with incomes under $30,000, 38.6 per cent supported National to Labour's 40 per cent. National was strongly dominant among the middle-income earners, with 54 per cent of those earning $30,000-60,000 and 57 per cent of those earning $60,000-80,000.

However, National has yet to release its policies on key issues including Working for Families, as well as its tax cut package.

The widening gap between the two main parties reflects the results of three other polls released last week by Fairfax, Roy Morgan and One News-Colmar Brunton, which the Prime Minister said were "extreme".

The poll of 1210 respondents was taken between June 6 and 25 and has a margin of error of 2.8 per cent. The results are of decided voters only.

Tanczos smashes watch on departure

STUFF.CO.NZ: One of the first things Nandor Tanczos did when he entered Parliament was buy a watch.

The last thing he did before leaving was to take it off, place it on his desk - and smash it to pieces with a mallet.

"Because when I look at the state of our rivers, our atmosphere and our people, I don't need a watch to tell me what time it is," the departing Green MP shouted, as the handcuff that had chained him to the system shattered across the chamber.

And that was Nandor Tanczos done.

This country's first Rastafarian MP said his goodbyes to Parliament yesterday in a valedictory speech watched by more than 50 friends, family and supporters in the public gallery - and many others around the world via the Internet.

He said he had known what to expect when he came to Parliament, but had still been surprised by the intensity.

"It's life, Jim, but not as we know it."

He had expected "a bunch of bastards", but had been wrong - though he was ashamed by the shenanigans during Parliament's question time and saddened that the national legislature was not shown more respect by its members.

He also launched a few well-aimed shots at the press gallery, describing the journalists who covered Parliament as "buzzards" interested only in the latest "political corpse".

But most of the farewell speech was devoted to the issues that drove him to Parliament in the first place. He urged faster action on climate change and finding alternative energy sources as oil stocks dwindled.

He also hoped for the day when New Zealand became a republic and he called for Maori sovereignty.

The most poignant words were for the people he aimed to represent: the disenfranchised and the different.

"I stood, I guess, to demonstrate that you don't have to be of this world to be effective in it. Be true to oneself, whoever one may be, and take your seat as an equal, whether it's here in the House of Representatives or in the dust of the streets."

After nine years, it was time to cleanse his soul for an MP who resented being shackled to the prison bars of time, and whose time was now over.

Russell Norman enter's parliament

STUFF.CO.NZ/NZPA: Green Party co-leader Russel Norman has been declared elected to Parliament.

Dr Norman replaces Nandor Tanczos, who gave his valedictory speech to Parliament yesterday.

Mr Tanczos was a list MP, and initially intended to quit politics at the election later this year.

He left early so Dr Norman could become an MP ahead of the election campaign.

The chief electoral officer today declared Dr Norman from Wellington elected to Parliament from the Green Party list.

Dr Norman is due to be sworn in on Tuesday.

Colin Espiner: National confusing on “smacking” position

STUFF.CO.NZ – ON THE HOUSE BLOG: Just an update on the "smacking" legislation. I was intrigued today to see National's leader John Key leading off questions in the House today on the timing of a referendum over the issue. National further followed this up with slots during the general debate this afternoon.

I think this is dangerous territory for National. Key appears to believe he can slate the Government for deciding not to hold a referendum on whether or not smacking should be a criminal offence with this year's general election, while at the same time supporting the legislation the referendum seeks to overturn.

Key today accused Prime Minister Helen Clark of "suppressing the will of the New Zealand people" by holding the referendum by postal ballot some time next year, rather than at the election. Does this mean he will follow the "will of the people" and overturn Sue Bradford's child discipline law if National wins the election?

I'm also not sure how not holding the referendum - if indeed one is triggered, and we don't know that yet - with the general election constitutes an affront to democracy, so long as a referendum is still held as soon as possible afterwards.

I take the point that Clark probably doesn't want this issue on the ballot paper in October or November, and that she will be grateful to the authorities for deciding it just isn't possible. It was, however, their decision - not hers.

Politically, however, I can't understand why John Key wants to revive this issue either. It was largely his decision to corral his MPs into line and make them vote for Bradford's bill, and at the time he basked in the glory of the political accord with Labour that made that possible.

Now, just because a few fundementalist Christian groups led by Larry Baldock appear to have forced a referendum on the matter, Key appears to be trying to jump on the populist bandwagon. Well, he can't have it both ways - either he thinks the law is a good one, or he's changed his mind. I'm keen to hear which it is.

Either way, National appears to have decided it does want the matter to become an election issue. I'm not sure how it benefits from this, unless it wants to ensure it's not harmed by having voted for the bill. But given its Labour that is taking all the heat anyway, why didn't National let it lie?

If it's not careful, it will attract the attention of all the flaky proponents of the referendum that Key managed to shrug off last year when he signed up to the legislation. They are the sort middle New Zealand runs from - and National needs middle New Zealand to win the election.

Colin Espiner: Reality biting for petition on “smacking”

STUFF.CO.NZ – ON THE HOUSE BLOG: Sometimes I think God really does have a sense of humour.

On the same day as the Christian far Right marches into Parliament to re-deliver a petition seeking a referendum on the right to return to beating their children, the police release statistics on the operation of the first year of Sue Bradford's S59 Amendment Act.

This is the law, you'll remember, that Family First, failed politician Larry Baldock, radio show host Simon Barnett, and the now defunct Destiny Church political wing decried as "criminalising" ordinary parents. It would, they declared, lead to mums and dads around the country thrown in the slammer for delivering so much as a tap on little Johnnie's bottom.

Such was the hue and cry around this bill that it has been credited with sealing Labour's fate at the polls once and for all. I haven't seen any figures to back this up, but I know even Labour admits privately that it took a big hit to its support by voting for Bradford's bill. (It's ironic that National has escaped unscathed despite also voting for it, but that's another matter.)

So it was with considerable interest that I opened the police report on the number of prosecutions for smacking in the past year. Let's see, the number was…oh yes, here it is. None. That's right, none. How many Mr Baldock? None. Mr Barnett? None. That's right. Police prosecuted no one for smacking their child in the past year.

There was, as was expected, an increase in the number of smacking complaints investigated by police as people tested the new law. It wasn't terribly onerous, however. There was no "home invasion" as Mr Barnett foretold. In total over the past six-month review period of the law, police investigated 13 complaints of smacking. All were determined to be inconsequential.

A further 69 acts of "minor physical discipline" were investigated by police, of which all but four were not prosecuted. Of the four that were, one was withdrawn and three others are proceeding.

How does this compare with before the law took effect? Police haven't released the full-year figures yet so it's not quite an apples-with-apples comparison. But for smacking, the last three months saw one more complaint than in the three months prior to the enactment of the bill.

There were 17 more cases of minor physical discipline and 11 more of child assault than in the three months before the bill was enacted. We need to wait three more months to see the corresponding period last year to exclude "seasonal variations" (apparently these exist according to the police).

So the sky hasn't fallen in and law-abiding parents haven't been prosecuted. So why do we need a referendum? Proponents will say that the relatively high proportion of cases not proceding to prosecution shows many parents have been unnecessarily troubled by the police. They will also say that there is no sign of the bill actually working as intended, which was to stop people beating their children.

It's true that while there is no sign of the police acting heavy-handedly, we don't yet know whether or not the law has led to a reduction in child abuse. It will be some years before enough data is in to make such a call one way or another. Has the act caused people to think twice before smacking their children in public? Some say it has. Again, there are no statistics on this.

Electoral authorities say it's probably too late for this referendum, if it is approved, to take place at this year's election. That means it will have to be held separately. A conservative estimate of the cost of a separate referendum would be $1 million.

Personally I can think of better ways of spending taxpayers' money than a referendum on a law that, while not perfect, closed a defence used by child abusers to avoid prosecution and has not led to any sensible parents being prosecuted.

PM accuses John Key of lack of NZ knowledge

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party leader is defending comments he made about the history of New Zealand.

John Key has been quoted as saying: "New Zealand is not a country that's come through civil war or a lot of fighting internally. We're a country that peacefully came together."

Prime Minister Helen Clark says Mr Key has demonstrated a deep lack of understanding about the history of New Zealand.

But Mr Key says he was talking in the context of the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840, and is not denying that there were violent episodes in the past.

Another National turn around: this time on GP fees

NZPA: The National Party has quietly dropped its plan to scrap the review system which forces doctors to explain fee increases that are above the rate of inflation.

It is unpopular with the medical sector, and health spokesman Tony Ryall confirmed last year a National-led government would abolish it.

The Government immediately accused him of running a secret agenda because it was not in a health policy discussion paper he launched in September.

In a speech to the New Zealand Medical Association (NZMA) last Friday, Mr Ryall said: "What patients will want to know is that the fees they pay are reasonable and will not rise unchecked.

"For this reason we will maintain a GP fee review process and will work with you to reduce associated bureaucracy and cost."

Health Minister David Cunliffe said tonight policy flip-flops were becoming the National Party's trademark.

"Friday's admission from Tony Ryall at a medical conference in Rotorua that it was scrapping plans that would have allowed GP fees to skyrocket is hardly a shock given their track record," he said.

Mr Cunliffe's comments upset the NZMA, which said GP fees were once again being used as a political football.

"It is a scare tactic to the public, and pure electioneering, to suggest that GP fees would rise unreasonably either now or under a future government," said NZMA chairman Peter Foley.

"The expensive and bureaucratic fee review system, introduced by this government, is unnecessary.

"Where it has been applied it has overwhelmingly shown that fee increases have been found to be reasonable."

Labour’s plan for rights of casual workers

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Proposed changes to casual workers' rights could make a huge difference for thousands of workers, say unions.

A bill proposing changes to the Employment Relations Act would include a code of practice for casual labour and expanded powers for labour inspectors to decide the status of an employee.

Council of Trade Unions president Helen Kelly says the Government could change the lives of many vulnerable workers if the change goes ahead.

Ms Kelly says many regular workers are going without the benefits received by permanent staff because they are wrongly defined as casual employees. Ms Kelly says many work in the retail, fast-food and hospitality industries.

Service and Food Workers Union's national secretary John Ryall says there is a widespread problem of casual workers doing regular hours on a long-term basis without the benefits of a permanent job.

"It will allow them to know precisely what their employment status is, by getting a very simple, quick decision from a labour inspector as to whether they are casual, part-time or permanent."

Unions say the proposed legislation could result in thousands being made permanent after being on casual contracts for years.

However, the bill cannot be passed before the election. Labour Minister Trevor Mallard says it may have its first reading before the election, but is warning that a National-led government would vote against it.

National's industrial relations spokesperson Kate Wilkinson says the party's position has not been finalised.

National tried to team up with Labour to get rid of Peters in 1999 - Hooton

STUFF: Former National staffer Matthew Hooton today said the party tried to get Labour to join forces in Tauranga in 1999 to knock Winston Peters out of politics.

Hooton, now a political commentator on Radio New Zealand, said it was not a bad idea for this year's election.

If Mr Peters can win Tauranga back it would ensure the survival of his New Zealand First Party. Without a seat the party needs to secure 5 percent of the party vote - something it has not come near in recent polls.

"There were approaches made from the National campaign to Margaret Wilson's campaign," Hooton said of the 1999 election.

The proposal was along the lines of: "We both know that Winston Peters is a destructive individual in New Zealand politics, how about you send an informal signal, Margaret Wilson, for Labour people to vote for Labour on the list and for me (National's Katherine O'Regan) for the electorate."

Left-wing commentator Laila Harre said Labour made the call to contest.

"It wasn't just her personal decision. It was a Labour decision to try and win that seat and they came close."

The three way competition in 1999 was fierce and Mr Peters only retained the seat by 63 votes.

Hooton said after that experience some Labour supporters may back National in the hope of eliminating Peters this election.

"There is an opportunity to take an important step to be sure that we are rid of Mr Peters."

Harre said Labour would be foolish to do anything to support New Zealand First's chances as the small party was likely to end up in support talks with National.

"For Labour to make it easier for him to win Tauranga would be a dreadful mistake for them in terms of the potential to put forward a Government."

Hooton said National had put up a strong candidate in Tauranga - crown prosecutor Simon Bridges - and he said incumbent MP Bob Clarkson was pushed.

While NZ First could be useful to National after the election: "I think they may actually be doing the right thing and thinking its worth getting rid of him anyway," Hooton said.

Petition for Election Day referendum on smacking

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Family First presented 60,000 new signatures to Parliament today in an attempt to force a referendum on the anti-smacking law.

The group's petition failed in April as it needed 280,275 signatures to force a referendum but fell short after about 18,000 were excluded because they were either illegible, the signatory's date of birth could not be confirmed, or involved people signing multiple times.

Today's petition comes just over a year since Sue Bradford's controversial legislation was passed.

National director of Family First Bob McCoskrie said the extra "stack' of signatures on the petition opposing the anti-smacking law had confirmed politicians failed to listen to the voice of the people.

"If the purpose of the law was not to ban smacking, as promised by the Prime Minister before the last election then the law should explicitly state this," he said.

"It should not be left open to potential persecution of parents through complaints by schools, members of public and children, and investigations by police and CYFS."

Green MP Sue Bradford called on political parties and the voting public to reject calls to turn back the clock.

"I am of course aware, as the petition shows, that there are still all too many people who believe that the right of parents to physically assault their children in the name of discipline is more important than the right of babies and children to grow up free from violence," she said.

A New Zealand Health Survey conducted between October 2006 and November last year found physical punishment was one of the least used forms of discipline with about five per cent of all primary caregivers surveyed agreeing smacking to be an effective form of discipline.

Mr McCroskie said Family First was calling on the politicians to amend the law so that good parents were not criminalised for reasonable and appropriate correction of children.

"We are now seeing clear evidence of good parents being prosecuted in courts for correcting their children in ways that were promised would not be caught under the new law," he said.

Ms Bradford said anecdotal and research based evidence had shown that over the past couple of years increasing numbers of New Zealanders had turned away from using violence in bringing up their children.

"If New Zealand were to reverse last year's law change, we would be an international disgrace among the other 22 nations who have put child protection above parents' rights to assault their children," she said.

PM doesn’t accept huge poll margin

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Prime Minister Helen Clark says three separate polls at the weekend that show Labour trailing National by over 20 per cent are "very extreme" and overstate the Opposition's lead.

A TV One Colmar Brunton poll last night had National on 55 per cent with Labour lagging on 29 per cent support.

That followed Saturday's Fairfax Media poll by AC Nielsen showing National winning 54 per cent of the party vote against Labour's 30 per cent.

The latest Roy Morgan poll also showed a large gap with National's support up two to 52.5 per cent while Labour dropped 0.5 to 31.5 per cent.

But Helen Clark today refused to accept the size of the gap recorded in the polls, which she said were "very extreme".

"I'm all over the country. I believe that the Labour heartland is in very good shape indeed," she said on NewstalkZB.

"Of course we're behind but to say we are behind by those sorts of figures I think is just wrong."

Helen Clark said two of the polls seemed to consistently overstate National's lead.

"The Fairfax poll and Colmar-Brunton have consistently been bad and the Roy Morgan poll seems to be taken of part of a broader consumer poll so not too much notice is taken of that."

She said she expected more people to swing back to Labour closer to the election once they contrasted its planned programme with National's "deafening policy vacuum".

Last night's TV One poll gave National more than enough seats to govern in its own right.

This poll had the Greens on 7 per cent support, the Maori Party 4.4 per cent, while New Zealand First had the backing of 3.2 per cent of voters, meaning it would be out of Parliament unless leader Winston Peters won Tauranga.

National would have 68 seats compared to Labour's 36 seats. The Maori Party would have six seats, the Greens nine seats, and - assuming their leaders held their seats - United Future, ACT and the Progressives would each have a seat.

National leader John Key also had a solid lead in the popularity stakes.

He was the preferred prime minister of 38 per cent of voters, ahead of Miss Clark on 27 per cent. Mr Peters was the preferred prime minister of 4 per cent.

The TV One poll sampled 1000 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

The Greens held the same rating of 7 per cent in Saturday's Fairfax and the latest Roy Morgan poll.

In the Fairfax poll, NZ First was on 3 per cent, the Maori Party 2 per cent, while ACT and United Future both attracted 1 per cent support.

In the Roy Morgan poll, NZ First was on 4 per cent support, the Maori Party had 2 per cent support, as did ACT, while United Future gained just 0.5 per cent backing.

Winston Peters reveals politics worst-kept secret

ONE NEWS: One of the worst kept secrets in politics has been confirmed, with Winston Peters announcing he will stand in his old seat of Tauranga.

He will go up against political newcomer Simon Bridges, in a contest that could be crucial for the future of New Zealand First.

Peters is twice the age of his main opponent and dwarfs him in terms of time in politics and experience.

But both parties are optimistic.

Bridges says he is not phased going against the political big man, and says he will be able to spend more time pressing the flesh than his busy opponent.

"I think the advantage I have, is I'm going to be on the ground everyday, working to earn the support of the people of Tauranga," he says.

The New Zealand First leader is hopeful his prize will be his old job back.

"We're done a lot of work here... we've been a part of it," says Peters.

Peters told 150 party faithful at Mt Maunganui on Sunday afternoon that he would stand.

He told the audience it's a comeback, not for personal glory but to right the wrongs of the last three years of what he called an incompetent incumbent.

The speech was full of sideswipes at National MP Bob Clarkson, who took the seat from Peters.

Peters also listed New Zealand First's achievements for the locals, including the toll free harbour bridge.

In his speech he likened himself to sporting greats Muhammed Ali and Tiger Woods, who also suffered defeats, but triumphed in the end.

Peters was Tauranga MP from 1984 until he lost to Clarkson at the last election.

Peters will be up against National's Simon Bridges, Labour's Anne Pankhurst, the Kiwi Party's Larry Baldock, and independent candidate Gray Eatwell.

Post election, National may be looking to New Zealand First for a coalition deal. On current polling, New Zealand First is only on 3%, meaning no Tauranga seat, no New Zealand First.

But National say they won't make it easy for Peters.

So the fight for the patch begins, with both sides hoping to draw the most votes.

Fairfax Media/Neilson Poll: June 2008

ONE NEWS: The latest Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll shows Labour still lagging behind National by 24 points but Labour supporters appear have no appetite for a leadership coup before the election.

Despite the prospect of an election defeat, more than 80% of people who intend voting Labour don't want a new leader.

Political analyst Barry Soper says the survey confirms his own testing of the mood within the party. He says Labour knows Helen Clark is their best ticket, even if she is not currently polling well.

The poll shows only 5% of Labour voters think Phil Goff would be a better leader.

However Labour has closed the gap on National by three points, recording 30% compared to National's 54%. The Greens sit at 7% while New Zealand First is on 3%.

One News/Colmar Brunton Poll: June 2008

ONE NEWS: There has been another brutal mauling for Labour in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton political poll.

It indicates voters are preparing to throw out the government, amid concerns about violent crime and the cost of living.

National leader John Key hasn't announced a lot of policy lately, but the less he says the more popular National seems to be.

In contrast, Prime Minister Helen Clark is constantly campaigning and unveiling policy, but getting no pay off.

Her latest concern is rising public fear and the spate of recent violent crimes.

All of that, providing more ammunition for National.

National is still defying gravity on 55%, while Labour is only at 29%.

The Greens hold the line at 7%, and the Maori Party picks up a little and gets close to 5%.

National would have unbridled power on these results. 68 seats to National against Labour's 36.

The Maori party would get six seats, and assuming they hold their electorates it's one seat each for United Future, Act and the Progressives.

Key has locked down a solid lead in the preferred Prime Minister rankings also.

At 38% Key is 11 points clear of Clark, and Winston Peters is well behind on 4%.

The poll sampled 1000 eligible voters and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

Peter Dunne speaks to Gordon Campbell

SCOOP: The interesting thing about Mr. Common Sense & Reliable is the body of evidence that indicates he is neither. I'm not talking about Dunne's memorable fit of pique on election night in 2005 ….or actually I am, but only as evidence of an underlying reality, rather than an out-of-character incident. Being sensible is very stressful. 'He seemed so normal,' is after all, an observation that the neighbours of serial offenders routinely make.

With Dunne, it is more a case of serial identities. On the surface, Dunne can seem like a plodding, hyper-rational figure – the Ken Barlow of New Zealand politics. Yet since 1996, Dunne's party lists have zig-zagged in dizzying fashion, often with barely a name recurring between elections. The ethnic minority line-up in 1999 for instance, was markedly different to the neo- Christian line-up he assembled in 2002. For years, Dunne has been willing to hitch his little engine to whatever chain of wagons is available, before chugging off in whatever direction is most likely to deliver him the goods.

The public has sometimes been very surprised by what Mr Sensible has actually delivered. Thanks to the workings of the television worm, Dunne hit his peak during the 2002 election campaign as the Sensible Little Chap, the moderate alternative to a dreaded Labour-Green combination in government. Ironically, the public's sudden infatuation with United Future in 2002 did not save the system from extremism. Quite the contrary - that fling put a bunch of Christian radicals from Dunne's fundamentalist party list into Parliament.

To Dunne's relief, those United Future MPs have since gone down in electoral defeat and/or chosen to pitch their revival tent elsewhere. United Future now face the prospect of re-inventing themselves for this year's election. Once again, it seems to be flip-flopping. For the past six years, Dunne has posed as the steady, reliable hand restraining Labour from going off the rails with any left wing, anti-business agenda – but in 2008, Dunne will be posing as the steady reliable restraint stopping National from going off the rails with a possible right wing, pro-business agenda.

Such a history might have left any other party in Parliament typecast as a bunch of chancers and flakes – yet the myth of steady-as-he-goes somehow endures. Beneath the surface, there is constant movement. Dunne may have been deeply involved in framing the tax outcomes announced in the last two Budgets, but barely before the Budget dust had settled, he was off wooing National for a place in its governing configuration next year.

Such elasticity could be inevitable, the ignoble lot of any small, would-be centrist party. Yet it crops up with regard to some of more the controversial issues before the House as well. In Peter Dunne, the tobacco and gambling industries have what is perhaps their most sympathetic voice in Parliament, during times of need. Scoop political editor Gordon Campbell talked to Peter Dunne last Friday morning.

Read the interview – click here.

A tenth of Kiwis still to be enrolled on electoral roll

NZPA: One in 10 New Zealanders have until Friday to get enrolled on the preliminary electoral roll, Electoral Enrolment Centre Manager Murray Wicks said yesterday.

"Just under 300,000 people are still not enrolled to vote," Mr Wicks said.

"We close the electoral roll on Friday so we can print a preliminary 'check it' electoral roll.

"This is a key step in the electoral process. The printed roll allows people to check their details and is part of the open accessible electoral system in New Zealand."

Printed rolls will be available from July 7. Once the election is called, the final electoral rolls will close for printing approximately one month before election day.

More information available at: www.elections.org.nz.

Simon Bridges to contest Tauranga electorate for National

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National's new Tauranga candidate wants to avoid getting personal in his election campaign.

Simon Bridges, who won selection last night, told the Weekend Herald he did not want a battle with his likely foe, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

"I want to earn votes from Tauranga by presenting a positive, ambitious case, not getting into a slanging match," Mr Bridges said.

Party delegates chose the 31-year-old to replace outgoing MP Bob Clarkson on the first ballot.

Mr Peters is expected to announce his bid for the seat soon, but Mr Bridges said he was "not going to talk about personalities".

"I think people want more dignity from their politicians, and I'm not going to be playing in the gutter."

Mr Bridges said Tauranga residents had voted for change three years ago when they elected Mr Clarkson after 21 years of Mr Peters as their MP.

"People are tired of the politics of the past. Tauranga is now a modern and vibrant city and it wants an MP to match."

Mr Bridges has been a member of the National Party for 16 years and aims to be a long-term representative for the city from inside caucus.

"I think the story of Tauranga has been one of lost opportunity. We haven't had the infrastructural investment we have deserved because we haven't had an MP inside a Government caucus for generations."

For him, this year's election was about "generational change".

Rising living costs were a major issue for young families and seniors in his electorate, and Tauranga residents had told him they wanted firm action on law and order.

Mr Bridges said he had a strong understanding of the latter after working as a Crown prosecutor in the city for the past few years.

He holds a law and arts degree from the University of Auckland, and a Masters in Law from Oxford University.

He plans to resign from his job and work full time on his campaign.

Labour MP Mark Gosche quitting politics at election

ONE NEWS: Veteran Labour MP Mark Gosche is quitting parliament at this election to concentrate on caring for his wife.

Five years ago Carol Gosche suffered a brain aneurysm and since then further tragedy has beset the family, leaving the one time political high-flyer with changed priorities.

The former cabinet minister took time-out after the sudden death of his son in December and Gosche has gone from being at the table with the government's top 20 decision makers to something quite different.

Mark and Carol met as teenagers and have been married more than 30 years. But their relationship took on a new dimension when Carol suffered a major brain haemorrhage.

Now the man who counted former Prime Minister David Lange among his supporters, and who was marked out as a potential Labour leader, is stepping aside.

Gosche has been a significant player in politics and has been the electorate MP in Maungakiekie for the past nine years. In parliament he has had high profile portfolios including transport and housing, as well as being the first person of Pacific Island descent to be in cabinet.

The family suffered another tragedy six months ago when their 24-year-old son Kristian committed suicide.

"I felt I was at my lowest ebb in terms of energy, and you need a lot of energy to be a politician, to be an MP...it made me think, how much do you have inside yourself, for the rest of your working career, and do you want to keep doing this," Gosche says.

"I've always enjoyed the cut and thrust of politics, and at the end of the day, the parliamentary process in the House is a lot to do with theatre and the contest of ideas...and I'll miss that, but...I think we're not all driven by ego, we're not all driven by the so called perks of the job."

He will be walking away from his electorate office and a team he has been part of for a decade.

Staff member John Fenton says Gosche has been through hell in the last five years.

Gosche says he will have wonderful memories of the work he has done.

"I'm only 52, so I've got a working life ahead of me that I've got to concentrate on."

Douglas confirms electorate seat

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The ACT Party founder Sir Roger Douglas will stand in the Auckland electorate of Hunua in this year's election.

The ACT leader Rodney Hide says the former minister of finance has also agreed to accept a high place on the party's list.

The Hunua electorate was newly named after last year's boundary changes and replaces parts of the former Clevedon and Port Waikato electorates.

Labour could have some coalition issues – Matt McCarten

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Until now, it has been assumed Labour has managed the political relationships with other parties under MMP far better than National.

Three years ago, Don Brash completely misunderstood MMP, running National's campaign under a two-party electoral mentality. Despite Act pleading to be their ally, National tried to destroy them. It also went out of its way to launch a red-meat attack on Winston Peters in Tauranga. To reinforce its stupidity, its Maori-bashing hysteria ensured it alienated the Maori Party, too.

Brash lost to Labour by only one MP, yet Helen Clark was able to form a third-term government with, essentially, a 20-seat buffer. To its right, Labour had NZ First and United Future, and, on the left, Jim Anderton's Progressive Party, the Greens and the Maori Party.

Clark had worked out years before that she could keep coalition options open by maintaining polite and collegial relationships with all minor parties. In this happy situation, Labour would be the permanent government under MMP.

However, the ultimatum by Winston Peters and Peter Dunne - that they would not support a Labour-led government if the Greens were in it - set up the situation where Labour's hegemony of the minor parties would ultimately fracture.

At the last election, the Green Party had positioned itself, like the Alliance before it, so the only electoral deal it could do would be with Labour. This effectively made it impotent in any coalition negotiations.

Once Clark had dismissed the Maori Party as the "last cab off the rank", the Greens were screwed. Labour went for the short-term, expedient deal, which, at the time, seemed a master stroke. It kept the Cabinet and, by offering Peters and Dunne ministerial portfolios outside Cabinet, had a comfortable parliamentary majority. The Greens had no choice but to take a few crumbs as a consolation prize.

At the time, Greens co-leader Rod Donald was devastated at what he thought was a betrayal by Labour. The current leadership, after Donald's untimely death shortly after the election, understood clearly that they would not be put in the position of Labour's footstool again.

This term, Green Party MPs have resented the disdain and disrespect with which Labour ministers have treated them. At their conference last week, co-leader Russel Norman laid out the Greens' more aggressive, independent position on coalition matters. On working with either Labour or National, the Greens have formally adopted the same policy as the Maori Party. Norman's attack on Labour and National as tweedle-dee and tweedle-dum is the first salvo in this election.

Under normal circumstances, I would argue this is mere electoral posturing, given that several Green MPs, including Norman, have socialist-left backgrounds. But it is clear their mood is to move to a more centrist and pragmatic electoral position. With Labour now so far behind National in the polls, they won't get enough MPs in Parliament to keep the government jobs even if all the minor parties back them.

United Future and NZ First have positioned themselves to work with either of the two big parties. Jim Anderton and Rodney Hide effectively cancel each other out in the electoral math, because the Progressives are fused at the hip with Labour, as is Act with National.

The Greens felt betrayed last time and won't put themselves at Clark's mercy again. But ultimately the Green Party probably has no choice but to align with Labour, given that its supporters are on the centre-left of the political spectrum. What's more - and without being unkind - I don't think the National Party would have a bar of them. Even with John Key's promotion of a softer National Party, it's safe to say the Green Party is National's "last cab off the rank".

The Maori Party is a real potential for Key if National can't gain enough support from Act and United Future, and assuming NZ First doesn't make it back. The Maori Party is Labour's competitor in the Maori seats and National has decided not to run candidates there. Last time Labour ran a somewhat successful strategy against the Maori Party by saying that a vote for the Maori Party was a vote for National. Given that the Greens, United Future and NZ First take a similar position, this won't have the same impact as last time.

So we are in an ironic position where Labour needs loyal electoral allies. The Maori and the Green parties, which Labour will need to survive, are hedging their bets.

Labour's decision to do a deal with NZ First and United Future has come back to haunt them. Neither is politically viable and won't survive when their leaders retire. The Green and Maori parties, which will survive long term, were alienated and are now taking their revenge.

On election night, Clark may well find herself in the same position as National three years ago. Key will have many coalition options and Clark none. The irony is that her political isolation will have been self-inflicted.

United Future holds conference

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: United Future has released its tax policy at its annual conference in Auckland on Saturday. The party says it wants the top tax rate lowered to 30%.

With just two MPs in Parliament, United Future wants to boost its numbers to five after this year's election.

The party wants income up to $12,000 taxed at 10%, and income between $12,000 and $38,000 taxed at 20%.

The party leader, Peter Dunne, says the policy goes further than the Government's tax cuts announced in last month's Budget.

He says the policy would cost $4.5 billion in a full year.

Mr Dunne says the policy is affordable, simple and fair, and combined with the party's plan to allow parents to split their income for tax purposes, it would deliver more money to families.

Mr Dunne says United Future wants to be seen as a bold party, with fresh ideas, and the ability to reach across the political divide.

He says the party has worked with both National and Labour in the past and insists it could work with either National or Labour after this year's election.

But Mr Dunne says he has been working with National over the past couple of months, and would not have a problem working with them after the election.

In his address on Saturday morning, Mr Dunne also called for a referendum on the future of MMP and the future of the Maori seats in 2010.

He also says it is time to consider a national health insurance scheme for New Zealand, to break what he says is an elective surgery log-jam.

He says Saturday's conference aimed to put forward the party's key issues, so voters can take a fresh look at United Future. About 80 people attended the conference.

Are you a moron? Then don’t vote NZ First

TARANAKI DAILY NEWS & NZPA: Election-year silly season is under way - as one party leader sparred with a "moron" radio listener, another's online presence was labelled "sad" by a teenager.

NZ First leader Winston Peters, standing in for broadcaster Leighton Smith, told NewstalkZB listeners yesterday that he did not want morons voting for his party.

After a listener sent him an e-mail saying he was a lost cause and would soon be out of politics, Mr Peters said there were a lot of morons in New Zealand and they could vote for any party they liked, but he did not want them to vote for NZ First.

National Party leader John Key was at Waitara High School, where he pushed his party's plan to spend $1 billion on "super fast broadband".

This would allow pupils to access his Bebo and Facebook pages at a fraction of the speed, and download movies in seven seconds, he said.

But pupil Jeremy Donoghue, 17, said: "Anyone over 40 that has a Bebo page is a sad, sad man."

When asked if he was friends with Helen Clark, Mr Key said he was not her boyfriend, as a seven-year-old in Auckland had inquired, but they did have a "cordial relationship".

"I kind of see her about."

All parties get broadcasting cash even if they don’t want it

THE DOMINION POST: Six tiny parties that have yet to register and one that does not want the money anyway have been given more than $17,000 to run television and radio advertisements during the election.

The six are among 11 fringe parties each awarded $10,000 to buy advertising slots, a production package worth more than $7000 and one minute of air time in the three-yearly carve-up of funds for broadcast campaigns.

Labour and National will each receive $1 million, the lion's share of the $3.2 million on offer, after each argued before the Electoral Commission that they should get the same amount.

There was a furore in 2005 after Labour was awarded $200,000 more than National, but the commission said in this year's ruling that the parties were now much closer together.

The Greens, Maori Party and NZ First get $240,000 each and ACT, the Progressives and UnitedFuture $100,000 each.

The commission allocates the funding according to the number of votes parties won at the last election, the number of MPs they have and other factors such as polls.

However, it said it had decided to ensure that all parties that applied for funding this year received something. The bigger parties were losing some of their potential allocations to subsidise smaller ones to ensure that the distribution would be fair.

The 11 parties that received the minimum package were: Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party, Democrats for Social Credit, the Libertarianz, the Alliance, the Family Party, Kotahitanga Te Manamotu Hake Tiriti o Waitangi, New World Order, New Zealand Liberals, Residents Action Movement, South Island Party and the Workers Party of New Zealand.

The last six of these have yet to register with the commission and the Libertarianz has said it will not take the cash because it opposes state funding of political parties.

A commission spokesman said the six parties would have to register and submit party lists with the deadline before they could get the funding. If they did not, it would most likely be redistributed to other small parties.

Jeanette Fitzsimons leaving politics by 2011

ONE NEWS: Long time Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons is likely to retire from politics before the 2011 election.

The 63-year-old expects this election campaign to be her last.

Fitzsimons originally wanted to retire after this year's election, but agreed to stay on following the death of co-leader Rod Donald in 2005.

Fitzsimons has been at the helm for 13 years and been in Parliament since 1996, but says she has other things to do.

The Green Party constitution requires a male and female to work as co-leaders.

Sue Bradford and Metiria Turei have been tipped to replace Fitzsimons as party co-leader with Russell Norman.

Nearly 50,000 not enrolled with Maori and youth majority

ONE NEWS: A voter recruitment drive has seen 50,000 voters struck off the electoral roll.

Last month, advertisements went out on the airwaves and hundreds of thousands of enrolment update packs were sent out in an effort to get voters on the electoral role.

But, the Electoral Enrolment Centre says 49,641 voters have been removed because their enrolment packs have been returned as undeliverable.

Electoral Enrolment Centre national manager Murray Wicks says that equates to a complete electorate, or about the same as the winning margin at the last election.

Trouble spots for voter registration include Auckland central, Wellington central, Dunedin North, and the Maori seats of Waiariki and Ikaroa Rawhiti.

In particular, Maori and youth over-represent those voters who have been removed from the roll.

The seven Maori seats stand out as among the worst affected with around 7,000 voters being removed.

Young voters are also prominent, making up 40% of those removed.

This could be bad news for the left as support is traditionally strong in these voter groups for Labour, the Greens and the Maori party.

Wicks says the numbers are not a surprise and are typically what crops up in an election year.

But, he says the numbers are serious and those affected will need to re-enrol so their votes count at this year's election.

"I urge people, if they haven't received their enrolment update pack, to get a form, complete it and send it in to us".

Greens yet to decide on coalition partner

ONE NEWS: The Greens hope their rise in the polls will put them in a powerful negotiating position come election time, but they are still refusing to reveal which of the major parties they might cosy up to.

The Green Party opted not to disclose their preferences at their conference on Sunday, saying they needed more time to see policies.

"We are keeping our powder dry. We will look at their policies and will make an announcement," said party co-leader Russel Norman.

However, they made no secret of their disappointment with Labour.

"It's certainly true that Labour, from our point of view, have not performed as well as we would have wanted them to perform," said Norman.

But the party did not express a preference for National, claiming that both parties are copping out on climate change.

Climate change and environmental issues have traditionally been the domain of the Green Party, but with the world now largely accepting and fearing the notion of climate change, the Greens ideas are being gobbled up by mainstream parties.

Party insiders also say Green MPs have been too caught up in their own pet projects and they need to have a sharper, more focused message in election year.

This message includes an attack "dirty dairying" with the proposal of a new tax on farmers who abuse New Zealand waterways.

In his address on Sunday, Norman outlined the resource levy for commercial water use which would see its revenue used to reduce rates and taxes.

He said it does not constitute privatisation, nor tradeable rights, but says those using a public resource to make a profit should pay a rental for its use.

"It's a discouragement to those people who're wasting water. But to those who are good at using water, they'll end up better off," said Norman.

The tax follows Saturday's conference agenda of food affordability which is shaping up to be the party's battleground issue for the election.

Co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons proposed a cap milk prices so as to combat its soaring costs to consumers, and also called for a Commerce Commission inquiry into rising food prices.

Possible MPs

A job loss is on the cards for Kevin Hague, a potential future MP at number seven on the party list.

Hague, a senior public servant serving as chief executive of the West Coast District Health Board, says he is now negotiating with the board on what happens between now and the election, acknowledging he will have to step down from his role.

Hague says that will probably happen sooner rather than later, but believes he has been supported by the DHB up to now, and is grateful for it.

And, a man known for his involvement in web discussion groups is taking a tilt at parliament.

Software developer Mikaere Curtis can often be found engaged in political debate on the internet. A relative of the Curtis family, charged in connection with the death of toddler Nia Glassie, he has candidly and eloquently discussed abuse in his whanau and others on Public Address and other weblogs.

Now he is putting his money where his mouth is and is standing on the Green Party list, ranked at number 16.

He says it is a chance to get out and engage in civil discussions - something that doesn't always happen in internet forums.

Parliament is also noted for its rough-and-tumble nature, but Curtis believes he will be able to handle the heat if he gets there.

3 News/TNS Poll: May 2008

3 NEWS: Labour was hoping to bounce up, but in fact it has gone down. National is up two to 50, Labour slides three to 38, and the Greens remain steady on 5.8. New Zealand First goes up ever so slightly to 3.9, the Maori party is safe on 2. Act and United Future barely register.

It has been a good month for John Key, in the preferred Prime Minister rankings despite not doing much. He shoots past Helen Clark up six to 35, and Clark drops back three to 29.

And our other data shows Labour's tax cuts simply haven't worked. Key this week took time out to try his hand in a 747 flight simulator. It really captures the moment, National is in complete control.

National has not suffered any turbulence in this poll Key is still hitting the right buttons, even after Michael Cullen's 10.6 billion dollar tax cut giveaway.

The "Colby" budget will give most Kiwi workers between just 12 and 16 dollars a week.

So your verdict on Cullen's tax cuts? The majority, 61 percent say they will be no better off; 26 percent say somewhat better off. But a mere four percent say they will be significantly better off. And with rising food prices, five percent say they will be worse off.

We also asked voters about the size of Cullen's tax cuts; and 45 percent say the tax cuts aren't big enough, 34 percent say they are about right, just 10 percent say Labour shouldn't have reduced taxes as much as it did.

It is a clear message, people are not happy, they wanted more, and they wanted it earlier.

These tax cuts have been nine years coming, and National has done it's best to undermine them, and talk up expectations. And voters do expect Key to do better.

48 percent of voters say if National was in Government it would have expected bigger tax cuts, 39 percent don't believe National can do any better, and 12 percent don't know.

These results put pressure on Key to land bigger cuts but the books are tight, we asked him if he'll commit to a 45 dollar a week tax cut for working kiwis, and he won't.

So Helen Clark thinks her tax cuts delivered but so many households do not. This is proof that even a 10.6 billion cheque to Kiwi households can't stop Labour's slide.

Colmar Brunton Poll May 2008

ONE NEWS: Prime Minister Helen Clark has dismissed the latest political poll showing Labour trailing National by 26 percentage points.

The One News Colmar Brunton poll shows National support increasing to 55%, compared with Labour's 29%.

It also shows National Party leader John Key still as preferred prime minister with an eight point lead over Clark and 6% would prefer to see Winston Peters as prime minister compared with 4% last month.

Helen Clark says the poll is out of line compared with other polls.

Last week's New Zealand Herald Digi-Poll put National slightly further in front of Labour with 51.5% of the party vote compared to Labour's 36.2%.

But the One News poll echoes results in a Fairfax opinion poll taken two weeks ago, which had National with a 27 point lead.

The May One News poll also shows two other smaller parties making a comeback. The Greens have bounced back up to 7% and New Zealand First is getting close to the magic 5% threshold.

A party needs 5% to be allocated a proportional share of seats in parliament.