EPMU able to list as third party in election campaign

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Major unions with links to the Labour Party have been given permission to list as third parties for the election - after seven months of legal wrangling over their bid to do so.

The Electoral Commission yesterday decided to allow the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union to list as a third party, meaning it can spend up to $120,000 on election advertising for or against a party.

The union had been blocked from listing since January after a complaint it was too closely involved with the Labour Party's internal workings to also list as a third party.

Under the Electoral Finance Act, people or organisations which are involved in the administration of a political party are prohibited from also listing as third parties.

A decision not to allow unions to list could have severely stymied their election year activities, as only those which have registered can spend more than $12,000 on election advertising for or against a political party.

The objection to the EPMU's listing was laid by David Farrar, who has strong links to the National Party and also heads a third party which has campaigned against the Electoral Finance Act.

The commission said it would allow the unions to list on August 4 unless there was a court order against it.

Yesterday, Mr Farrar said he was surprised at the decision, and would consider whether to take further action.

EPMU national secretary Andrew Little said the delay in making the decision had not affected the union's campaigning.

Its campaign on workers' rights focused on issues, rather than parties. But being a third party would give a safety net for any future advertising which could fall under the definition of election advertising.

The union would ensure it was ready to comply with the law's requirements for third parties by the time it was listed.

The decision includes the Maritime Union, the Dairy Workers Union, the Meat Workers' and Related Trades Union and the Service and Food Workers Union, all of which were waiting for the EPMU decision.

NZ Herald Digi-Poll: July 2008

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National has widened its lead in this month's Herald-DigiPoll survey, recording its highest support in a year, while Labour has dropped to just above 30 per cent with the election no more than 3 1/2 months away.

The poll is the first to be completed since New Zealand First leader Winston Peters became embroiled in fund-raising controversies, but his party has gained slightly and his personal rating has dropped only marginally.

National leads Labour by 24.6 percentage points - reversing signs of a Government comeback in other polls.

National has risen half a percentage point since June to 55.4 per cent support, while Labour has dropped 1.6 points to 30.8.

The only other party to get across the crucial 5 per cent threshold to enter Parliament is the Greens, with 5.5 per cent. But New Zealand First, at 4.1 per cent, is edging closer.

National would govern alone if the poll were translated into seats. The election must be held by November 15.

A sizeable number in the sample of 770 voters -14.3 per cent - remain undecided about which party to vote for, and that suggests Labour still has an opportunity to claw its way back.

John Key has a 3.1 per cent lead over Helen Clark in the preferred PM stakes.

The poll began as truck drivers protested against rising road-user charges and Labour sealed its buyback of the railway company.

Prime Minister Helen Clark's attack on National leader John Key's personal shareholding in TranzRail has had no benefit for her party in the poll, and National appears unharmed by the secrecy over its use of controversial Australian political consultants Crosby/Textor.

The economy was at the forefront of people's minds during the month as economic data revealed a quarter of negative growth and fuelled talk that NZ might already be in a recession.

Asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote, 22.9 per cent said the economy.

A spate of homicides and violence in South Auckland in June was clearly still in voters' minds, as law and order was the second most influential issue (17.2 per cent).

Over the past month National has stepped up its policy releases and revealed a plan to open the Accident Compensation Corporation up to competition, get rid of TVNZ's charter, and introduce a 90-day probationary period for recruits to small businesses.

The major planks of National's election plan are yet to be unveiled, however, and Labour has expressed confidence it will close the gap on its rival once policies are on the table.

Still, the DigiPoll survey will not be welcomed by Labour, which had been heartened by three different polls a week ago showing a narrowing gap. Those put National's lead at between 13 and 17 percentage points.

Helen Clark trails Mr Key in the preferred prime minister ratings in the Herald poll but only just. She registers 44 per cent support, compared with the National leader's 47.1 - similar to the June DigiPoll survey.

Mr Peters has 4.9 per cent backing as preferred prime minister, reflecting his potential to get his party over the 5 per cent threshold.

The poll results have a margin of error of 3.5 per cent.

Steven Joyce labelled as a "Hollow Man" by PM

3 NEWS: Steven Joyce, National's 2005 election campaign manager and a millionaire, is to stand on the party's list.

Prime Minister Helen Clark was quick to condemn the nomination, saying Mr Joyce's appointment demonstrated that National still had a far-right agenda it wasn't being honest about.

Party president Judy Kirk dismissed the attack as "just politics".

Ms Kirk said Mr Joyce, along with Melissa Lee, a Korean-born television broadcaster, would get spots as list-only candidates. There are a maximum of five such positions which are usually ranked high on the list.

Mr Joyce, who was also the party's general manager, was one of the key background players featured in Nicky Hager's 2006 book The Hollow Men, which made disclosures about former leader Don Brash's links with the Exclusive Brethren.

The book detailed Mr Joyce's involvement in meetings with the shadowy religious group, in using controversial Australian political strategy company Crosby-Textor and approving billboards such as Iwi-Kiwi.

The book also said Mr Joyce offered to pay for lobby-group Fairtax's direct marketing campaign and went into how donations were gathered.

Miss Clark said the list position "must be a reward for being part of The Hollow Men, raising the money, organising the Brethren.

"What I think it really shows is nothing has changed about the National Party... I think that the selection of Mr Joyce shows that the forces behind the Hollow Men and the new right agenda are as active as they ever were in the National Party."

Ms Kirk told NZPA that Mr Joyce was a fantastic candidate and Miss Clark's remarks were just politics.

Asked about his role in the 2005 election she responded: "We always work within the law and we will continue to do so." And, now that electoral law had changed, National would work within those rules, she said.

After the 2005 election, Mr Joyce went to work for Jasons. The company announced today Mr Joyce was resigning from his Jasons Travel Media chief executive position.

Mr Joyce was former chief executive of RadioWorks New Zealand, a company he co-founded in the late 1980s.

National leader John Key said the party would benefit from Mr Joyce's political and business experience.

"Steven Joyce has over a number of years played an important role in the rejuvenation of the party, and in accepting the board's nomination to stand for Parliament on National's list, this contribution is set to continue in the years ahead."

Jasons' chairman Geoff Burns said Mr Joyce would share his responsibilities between Jasons and politics in the lead-up to the election, particularly until a new chief executive was selected and inducted.

Mr Joyce would stay involved with the company as a consultant to the board and management through the transitional period.

"Through his company Joyce Investments, Steven is our second-largest shareholder," Mr Burns said.

Mr Key said Ms Lee was an outstanding candidate and the list gave an opportunity to select people from diverse backgrounds.

Ms Lee produced and hosted television show Asia Downunder and has recently completed a feature film.

Mr Key has previously said he was keen to have more Asian representation in the party.

"The Asian community plays an increasingly significant role in our country's growth for the future," he said today.

How Labour can win - Therese Arseneau

ONE NEWS: Despite languishing behind National in the polls, Prime Minister Helen Clark still believes Labour can win a fourth term. Her strategy is to get to within 10 percentage points of National by the start of the campaign, and then out-perform National during the campaign.

Is this just political posturing? Perhaps, but here are a few reasons why Labour thinks it can be done.

1) MMP
Labour has been more successful under MMP than National. They know how to win an MMP election and how to operate effectively in an MMP-elected Parliament; by moving closer to the centre; and by nurturing alliances with parties on either side of it. This has been crucial to Labour's successful election and governing strategy.

Some commentators have suggested Labour's success is due to a bias for the left built into MMP. This is incorrect. MMP has most helped Labour by being bias-free, especially in terms of geography. MMP provides an almost exact translation of votes into seats nationwide, and Labour is no longer penalised for having an excess of votes in urban electorates. Every party vote counts.

The bottom line is this - in the last three elections Labour and its allies have received more votes than National and its allies. MMP is merely the vehicle of Labour's recent success. The driver is the growth in votes due to changed demographics and the backlash against unpopular National policies of the 1990s.

2) Labour's core vote
New Zealand has experienced a seachange in party identification. Victoria University political scientists Stephen Levine and Nigel Roberts have conducted pre-election surveys for over 30 years. In 1999, for the first time ever, they found more New Zealanders identified themselves as Labour supporters than National supporters. Labour has maintained this advantage over National in subsequent pre-election surveys.

Party identification is an attachment or loyalty to a political party. It can range from a simple affinity for a party, to a tendency to vote for a party, or even to being a card-carrying party member. Labour often refers to this as its "core vote".

Having a larger core vote does not guarantee Labour election success. This is partly because the number of New Zealanders identifying with a party has declined. Moreover, identifiers do not always vote for 'their' party.

But core supporters could keep Labour in contention. Party identification remains one of the strongest predictors of voting behaviour, a majority of New Zealanders still acknowledge a party identification, and their default position is to remain loyal to their party.

3) The infrequent voter
More than 20% of New Zealand's voting age public does not vote. Roughly half are serial non-voters; the other half intermittent non-voters. The bad news for Labour is that non-voters are mostly Labourites. The 2005 New Zealand Election Study (NZES) found non-voters favoured Labour over National by a margin of 2-1.

But Labour demonstrated in 2005 that pockets of these non-voters can be mobilised. The promise of interest free student loans, National's plans to abolish the Maori seats and fears about the future of state housing provided the motivation. Labour Party President Mike Williams credits the increased turnout for Labour's victory.

People intent on not voting are excluded from polls. Getting some of this vote out could move Labour closer to National than indicated in current polls.

4) National's policies
The 2005 NZES found a majority of New Zealanders surveyed supported a fairly expansive role for government and most preferred increased social spending to tax cuts. More New Zealanders feared the power of 'big business' than trade unions. And most were supportive of owning - either fully or partially - Kiwibank, Landcorp, and the electricity industry. These views seem more in line with Labour's vision of government than National's.

This might explain National's many policy reversals and its promise to leave several key Labour programmes, such as Kiwisaver, interest-free student loans and working for families, intact under a National government. It also explains National's promise not to sell state owned assets in its first term.

National is currently operating in a policy vacuum. Key's decision to abandon the more hard-line policies championed by Don Brash and to move the party towards the centre makes sense in the MMP environment. But it has led to some confusion about what National stands for. At the moment the public has a better idea of what a National government won't do than what it will do.

Eventually though National is expected to announce a more fulsome policy platform, and to more clearly differentiate itself from the current Labour government. Labour is hoping this will give voters cause to pause and question whether they really want a National government.

5) Helen Clark
The Prime Minister is backing herself to outperform John Key in the election campaign. Her leadership has been important in past elections, particularly late in the campaign when she mobilised and reinforced support. She provided the Labour-inclined and undecided voters with a reason to vote Labour.

It is difficult to measure and quantify the impact of leadership on voting choice. Despite the heavy media focus, most election studies find the effect to be small - from 1-4 percentage points - but important if the election is close (as it was in 2005).

6) The dream scenario
Labour's dream scenario depends on a mixture of good management and good luck. Labour must keep its core vote intact and mobilised, and give intermittent voters a reason to show up on election day. National's policies must scare away some of its current soft support, and Clark's leadership must capture these swinging, undecided voters for Labour. Labour would need some help from its friends in the form of post-election backing from the Progressives and Greens. It would also need help from the Maori Party. Even then, it may still require either help from New Zealand First and United Future, and/or some other "luck" - perhaps a major and unexpected issue or two that plays out better for Labour than for National.

Is this scenario realistic? That is the topic of my next column... so stay tuned.

ONE News Political commentator Dr. Therese Arseneau is a Senior Fellow in the School of Political Science and Communications at the University of Canterbury. In the lead-up to this year's election, she will be writing a regular column for onenews.co.nz, examining New Zealand's political landscape.

Alliance Party releases party list

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: The once influential Alliance party has released its list of candidates for the coming election, but has little or no chance of returning to the halls of power.

Co-leaders Kay Murray and Andrew McKenzie take up the first party list two spots. Ms Murray is standing in Dunedin South, while Mr McKenzie is contesting Port Hills.

The party is barely registering in the polls and it would take a political miracle for them to get above the 5 per cent support threshold to return to Parliament.

The party's political high point came in 1999 when several left-leaning parties under the leadership of Jim Anderton was junior partner in a coalition government with Labour.

The Alliance gained 7.74 per cent of the vote and brought 10 MPs to Parliament.

Labour's Helen Clark became Prime Minister, with Mr Anderton her deputy, and a number of Alliance MPs such as Laila Harre became ministers.

Within a year the government had reformed employment law, re-nationalising ACC, setting a new $60,000 tax bracket and announced the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, as well as Kiwibank.

The September 11 attacks and the subsequent invasion of Afghanistan tore the party apart as the government sent troops to join the invading coalition against many Alliance MPs' wishes.

Within six months the party divided into those who backed the invasion - led by Mr Anderton - and those who did not, under Ms Harre.

Mr Anderton formed the Progressives and returned to Parliament by holding on to the Wigram seat.

The Alliance failed to return to Parliament and ceased to become an effective political force.

National to leave Working for Families unchanged

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: National would keep the Working for Families scheme in its entirety if it wins this year's election, says leader John Key.

Last year, National signaled that it might make changes to the Working for Families tax credit scheme, but Mr Key says that will now not happen.

He says National would have preferred a different model, but the complexities that would be added to the scheme did not warrant any changes, which would have netted savings of only about $1 million.

Mr Key says it is very important in such difficult economic times that familes have no change in their incomes.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen has described the move as just another flip-flop by Mr Key, which clearly shows he is not to be trusted.

Dr Cullen says it confirms National will have to borrow to fund its tax cut plan because it had been intending to use savings from Working for Families to pay for it. But Key rejects that suggestion.

National wants party support to change Electoral Finance Act

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party says it would seek multi-party support before making any changes to the controversial electoral finance law.

Leader John Key says if the party leads the next Government it would repeal the Electoral Finance Act but not run roughshod over other parties.

The Labour-led Government has been criticised for forcing through the Electoral Finance Act when it did not have universal support within Parliament.

National has used allegations against Mr Peters over political donations to criticise both New Zealand First and Labour, however Mr Key has also spelled out that the party wants to avoid the political fall-out which has dogged Labour's legislation.

Mr Key says National would seek to reach agreement with all other political parties over its wording.

National announces employment relations policy

ONE NEWS: There are no major surprises in National's employment and industrial relations policy, with party leader John Key confirming a 90-day probation plan for new workers

The plan will allow businesses with less than 20 employees to put new staff on a 90 day probationary period.

Key says it will increase flexibility, let businesses grow, and give young and inexperienced workers a greater chance of getting work.

Labour and the Greens have previously condemned the move saying vulnerable workers will be open to exploitation.

However Key says safeguards, such as good faith provisions and mediation, will be in place to protect workers' rights.

Another feature of National's employment and industrial relations policy is the ability for staff to cash in a week of their annual leave.

Council of Trade Unions president Helen Kelly says the policy attacks the rights of workers.

"National's policy does not mention how they will lift wages, suggests workers could lose the fourth week of annual leave and have pay for statutory holidays cut, and reduces the democratic right of workers to belong to unions," Kelly says.

Labour says the lack of fanfare over Thursday's announcement is evidence that National is trying to put policy out under the radar.

In the past fortnight National has released policies on industrial relations, accident compensation, conservation, broadcasting and arts.

But Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen says the policy releases were not announced with a formal press conference and none have been followed up with an oral question in parliament, which is the usual practice followed by parties.

"John Key's policy releases have been fairly dismal attempts to fend off accusations that he lacks substance," Cullen says. "He (Key) is ordering policies to be released with every attempt made to make them die in the public arena."

National under pressure to announce more policy

DOMINION POST: National is under mounting pressure to start rolling out substantive policy soon as a new poll suggests rising impatience with its refusal to show its hand too early.

The Fairfax Media-Nielsen survey found 55 per cent of voters want to see policy from National now, against 35 per cent who are happy to wait.

Even National voters are split: 49 per cent want details now, against 47 per cent who could wait.

The poll comes as National confirms it has finalised the details of its tax package - and says a deteriorating economy will not make a significant difference to the size of the cuts it plans to implement.

Leader John Key said National had already "nailed down" its flagship tax cut policy but would wait till the first week of the election campaign to unveil it - after the Treasury's pre-election and fiscal update.

National's lack of policy detail has come under increasing scrutiny, but the party's view has been that releasing it too soon would give Labour the upper hand.

Soundings by party strategists, meanwhile, have suggested that, with the election still months away, there are few signs of a clamour in the wider electorate for policy detail.

But today's findings, coupled with Saturday's Fairfax poll finding that Labour has started to claw back its lost support, may force them to revise that view.

Mr Key is unmoved, saying the party has set a timetable and will not change it, though it has been accelerating the release of policy in recent weeks. Health, education and social welfare plans had been "broadly signed off" but would be released in bite-sized pieces rather than a single initiative.

The Fairfax poll put National on 51 per cent, down three points, and Labour on 35, up five, closing the gap from a whopping 24 points last month to 16.

A One News-Colmar Brunton poll had a similar result, while a 3News survey put National on 48 per cent against 35 for Labour.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said the results of the polls were "positive" and "encouraging", but there was clearly more work to do.

She put the small turnaround down to people distinguishing between what events the Government had control over and which they didn't – namely petrol prices and the flow-on effects of the international credit crunch.

National's policy releases had also helped.

"I think we have seen the Opposition more on the backfoot in the last month or so," she said on TVNZ's Breakfast programme.

"They've started to come out with policy that is very unpopular. If there is one thing that has got people galvanised it's their policy to privatise the ACC, that's gone down like the proverbial lead balloon."

Minor parties recorded little change in the latest polls, with the Greens managing to stay above the 5 per cent threshold for seats under MMP and New Zealand First still below it.

National's leader John Key was still more popular as preferred prime minister than Helen Clark, but she was starting to close in on him.

The Government still has a long way to go for it have a fighting chance of winning the election, which must be held by November 15.

Miss Clark has said Labour will regain support when the campaign starts and National has to release its core policies.

If that trend has started now it will be good news for Labour, which for months has had to deal with polls showing National holding as lead of more than 20 points which would give it a landslide win in an election.

- With NZPA

3 News Poll: July 2008

3 NEWS: The National Party could govern with unbridled power on the evidence of tonight's 3 News political poll. However the gap has closed slightly between Labour and National.

The Labour Party's attacks on National leader John Key and the policy of the National party have made some difference, with Labour managing to regain some lost ground.

In the 3 News poll, National looks to be firmly in control at 48 percent, while Labour sits steady at 35 percent.

Meanwhile the Greens have moved up to seven percent, followed by NZ First who nudge up to four percent, and look set to reach the crucial MMP threshold of five percent.

The Maori Party came in at two percent, followed by Act at one percent and trailing at 0.3 percent was United Future.

Using the figures from the poll, in parliament National would govern alone with 62 seats and could get help from Act or United Future if it needed.

Labour would have 45 seats and the Greens would have nine. The Maori Party would have four seats and Progressive one.

Prime Minister Helen Clark has kept the heat on John Key's experience and leadership in the past month and perhaps it has been working.

Mr Key has lost three points in the preferred Prime Minister stakes to come in at 32 percent, while Helen Clark is down one point to 28 percent.

Winston Peters still has his small band of followers, as he comes in at six percent, while National's Bill English manages to come in at three percent.

Last week, Helen Clark responded to a question about John Key and Bill English both being on holiday at the same time, suggesting that National MPs did not work as hard as their Labour counterparts.

However John Key says he feels that she is being ridiculous and makes no apologies for taking a couple of days off to spend some time with his family.

Voters were asked if they felt that Miss Clark's attack on Mr Key was personal or based on policy. Sixty-nine percent responded by saying it was a personal attack, 16 percent felt it was based on policy and the remaining 15 percent said that they did not know.

However, Helen Clark's attacks over the last few weeks have been mostly fair and based on National's rollout of new policy.

Miss Clark is testing John Key's ability to be Prime Minister - which the 3 News poll shows he will likely be in a few months.

Responses:

Watch: 3 News report on poll (3 News 20 July 2008)

Listen: Radio New Zealand's Brent Edwards speaks on both the 3 News and One News poll (Morning Report 21 July 2008)

Act to reduce government services

ONE NEWS: The leader of the Act Party says lower taxes will mean a reduction in government services.

Rodney Hide says closing departments down will ultimately mean more money for taxpayers.

Speaking on TV One's Agenda programme, Hide would not say where he wants to see returning party founder Sir Roger Douglas placed on the party list.

Hide said he thought members would vote to have Douglas in the top three but he would not say his own preference.

The party leader conceded that with Act's current poll ratings -- around 1% in most polls - he had a big job to retain the party's current two seats in parliament.

Hide said he is disappointed in what he says is National's lack of ambition.

"There's no goal, there's no plan, there's not policy, what they're saying is vote for us and we'll do exactly what Helen Clark's doing," says Hide.

He says Act has got 60 candidates and election night will determine the outcome.

NZ First to stop ethnic and racial crime in Auckland - Peters

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The New Zealand First leader, Winston Peters, says the party wants to act to stop racial and ethnic crime in Auckland at the end of the party's annual conference there on Sunday.

In his leader's address, Mr Peters said long term solutions are needed to address the root causes of crime.

He says people who come to New Zealand must be supported to ensure the country's values and basic laws are understood.

In his closing address Mr Peters also said the party will launch a New Zealand Fund, to promote investment in local companies, after the election.

He says New Zealand First wants to put an investment programme in place to reduce foreign ownership of this country.

Mr Peters says it is much more sensible to put funds into rebuilding the nation's future, than the billions of dollars that have disappeared into failed finance companies, and shonky property deals.

He left the conference refusing to answer further questions about a $100,000 donation the businessman, Owen Glenn, made towards his legal costs in 2006.

Earlier Mr Peters said he had not misled the public over the donation.

He had repeatedly denied reports in the New Zealand Herald that the Monaco-based businessman gave money to the political party.

However, on Friday night Mr Peters said he had only just been made aware of the $100,000 donation, which was made through his lawyer Brian Henry.

At the conference on Saturday, Mr Peters said the donation was not illegal and was not made to New Zealand First.

He repeated his calls for the New Zealand Herald to apologise for their claims.

One News/Colmar Brunton Poll: July 2008

ONE NEWS: Labour has had a rare burst of good news with a bounce back in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll.

But the party still has a mountain to climb before the election and for Winston Peters and New Zealand First, the numbers don't stack up.

National has fallen a little in the poll but still has a clear majority over Labour which had a six point lift to take it back into the mid-30s.

National, 52%, is well ahead of Labour on 35% while the Green Party polled 6%. None of the other minor parties reached the 5% threshold this month.

National with 65 seats could still govern alone on these numbers which would leave Labour in opposition with 44 seats, along with the Greens with seven.

Assuming they win their electorate seats the Maori Party (1.7%) would have four seats, Act (1.2%) two and United Future and the Progressives one seat each. Without a seat New Zealand First (2.4%) would be out of parliament. The party

National leader John Key is preferred prime minister on 38% with Helen Clark firmly in second place on 31%. Just 4% think the job should go to the next highest contender, Winston Peters.

The poll is a reality check for National which has begun revealing its policy - including opening up the Accident Compensation Corporation for competition and reintroducing a 90 day trial period for new staff in small firms.

The poll of 1000 eligible voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

Responses

Listen: Radio New Zealand's Brent Edwards speaks on both the 3 News and One News poll (Morning Report 21 July 2008)

Fairfax/Nielson Poll: July 2008

DOMINION POST/STUFF.CO.NZ: Labour  has been thrown a lifeline by today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll showing the gap with National has closed to its narrowest since last year.

Though National would comfortably govern alone on today's poll results, Labour has clawed its way back from a 24-point deficit last month to 16 points today.

That may not be enough to turn around perceptions that the election is a foregone conclusion, but it has arrested a trend in which Labour's support fell below 30 per cent in the same poll last month, a result that shocked many Labour foot soldiers.

Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Labour's recovery to 35 per cent would be a morale boost.

"I've been saying to people for a long time the feeling in the heartland was nothing like 29 or 30 per cent ... our people will be very motivated by these results."

Labour had been warned that its attacks on National leader John Key's credibility, including a holding of Tranz Rail shares and policies such as ACC, would backfire.

But today's poll shows the gap between Mr Key and Miss Clark as preferred prime minister narrowing to seven points, the closest since November, suggesting the attacks are having an effect.

And it reveals a lot of voters - 28 per cent - remain undecided about whom they would prefer as prime minister.

While Mr Key is seen as a safer pair of hands to manage the economy through a downturn, most rate Miss Clark more highly as a "strong" and "capable" leader whom they would trust in a crisis.

Today's results are unlikely to spook National, but they will give it a jolt as it begins to roll out policy and readies itself for government.

Mr Key said the poll showed National was still favoured by one in two voters but National would have to work hard to retain their support.

Though publicly National won't read too much into polls that consistently give it an election-winning lead, plans for its first 100 days in office are starting to take shape behind the scenes.

Insiders have started drafting legislation to implement core promises on law and order and the Resource Management Act.

National seems certain, meanwhile, to mark symbolically the "changing of the guard", should it win the election, by mirroring Labour's 1999 Christmas Eve legislation raising the top rate of tax to 39c.

Legislation is likely to be rushed through before Christmas implementing tax cuts.

National's front bench is also starting to take shape. Along with Mr Key, deputy Bill English and No3 Gerry Brownlee, Simon Power, Nick Smith, Tony Ryall, Judith Collins, Anne Tolley and David Carter are expected to retain their spots.

But Pakuranga MP Maurice Williamson could fall back to make way for fresh blood - either former trade negotiator Tim Groser or Wellington lawyer Chris Finlayson.

The poll questioned 1049 people between July 9 and July 15 and had a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

Govt. wants a two teacher minimum at schools

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Education Minister Chris Carter says sole-charge schools are unsafe and the Government aims to have a minimum of two teachers in every school, if re-elected.

Mr Carter told the School Trustees Association conference in Christchurch on Friday that if he is still Education Minister next year, one of his priorities will be to have no sole-charge schools.

He believes it is not safe for students or teachers to have only one teacher in a school.

"I've been concerned for some time about sole-charge schools. We have 100 sole-charge schools in New Zealand and I wish to move towards having no sole-charge schools at all and that every school to have a minimum of two teachers," he says.

Mr Carter says about 70 extra teachers would be needed to boost staffing.

The minister told the conference another priority if the Government wins this year's election will be an in-depth review of education for children with special needs, even if that means radical reorganisation of special education.

Addressing hundreds of school trustees, Mr Carter appeared to soften his stance on the touchy issue for schools of operational funding.

In a recent spat with a group of North Shore principals over funding, Mr Carter said schools were getting enough money.

But on Friday he said he acknowledges the financial pressure on schools and he will soon announce some options for schools to pay for computer technology - a huge drain on school budgets.

NZ Votes 08 Poll: Updated as at 17 July

NZ VOTES '08: A poll that was posted to the NZ Votes 08 blog page when it was set up has found that while both Labour and National are neck-in-neck, the Act party could be the big decider.

So far, 16 votes have been made. Only Labour (31%), National (31%), Act (18%), Greens (12%) and United Future (6%) make the 5% threshold required for a party to secure seats in Parliament without an electorate seat.

For either Labour or National to gain power under these results, both would need the support of at least Act and United Future or Greens. However a main party could not win without Act. Because Labour and Act are highly unlikely to go together as partners in Government, chances are that National if it forms an agreement between Act and the Greens and/or United Future, then there would be a change of Government at the coming election.

Alternatively, there could be a grand coalition between Labour and National, making the three other minor parties part of the opposition.

If there are major changes to the poll numbers next month, there will be a further poll update then. To vote, see the panel to the right of the main NZ Votes '08 page.

Govt investigating universal student allowance

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Government has confirmed it has asked officials to work out the cost of a universal student allowance.

However, Tertiary Education Minister Pete Hodgson has played down suggestions that the Labour Party will take a promise for such an allowance into the election campaign.

Mr Hodgson says earlier this year, he asked officials to cost a universal student allowance in response to calls by students in the lead-up to the Budget.

He says Labour's policy remains one of moving progressively towards a universal allowance rather than directly to one.

The University Vice-Chancellors Committee says talking about introducing a universal allowance at a cost of $728 million is unhelpful. It says New Zealand is already spending well above the OECD average on student financial support.

Right-wing lobby group the Education Forum says putting money into student support, rather than into funding for tertiary institutions would do nothing to improve the performance of the sector.

The Union of Students Associations says it has lobbied for a universal allowance for the past 10 years.

United Future announce two more candidates

STUFF.CO.NZ: United Future has announced two more candidates for this year's general election.

They are party board member Frank Owen, who will stand in Palmerston North, and Vaughan Smith, who will contest the Wellington Central electorate.

Mr Owen is a former accountant who is now a lifestyle farmer.

Mr Smith has recently finished studies in law, arts and politics and is to yet to set the bar exam.

United Future announce education policy

NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW: United Future wants children to be taught values as well as reading and writing skills.

MP Judy Turner released the party's education policy today.

"We would ensure that all schools implement an integrated character education and civics programme," she said.

"Character education is about incorporating universal values such as honesty, respect for others and the law, tolerance, fairness, caring and social responsibility into a schools culture."

The policy also included:-

* having Playcentre, Kohanga Reo and Pacific Language nests under the 20 hours free early education policy;

* setting a teacher-pupil ratio for Year 1 Students of 1:15 (the current ratio is 1:18) and progressive reduction for Years 2 and 3 to 1:22 and Years 4-8 to 1:25;

* taking up New Zealand Association of Middle Schools (NZAIMS) recommendations including ongoing investment and development of middle years (1 to 7) schooling in New Zealand;

* setting a goal to raise the achievement of boys to the same as girls;

* a universal living allowance for tertiary students and to change the age that parental incomes are considered from 24 to 18;

* increased funding for early identification of children with special needs and disabilities with targeted systematic, intensive and high quality interventions;

* piloting the use of early childhood education centres as contact points for family support services, such as parenting courses, budget advice, health and counselling services;

* funding support staff salaries separately from schools general operations grant, and improving funding for ICT;

* increasing funding to the Ongoing Reviewable Resourcing Scheme (ORRS) which only 1 percent of students were accessing;

Ms Turner said her party supported the Government's policy to raise the school leaving age with the proviso it was accompanied by more career focused training options.

The party thought the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA) needed alterations including:

* that a minimum number of standards for each subject that must be externally assessed be set;

* ensuring there were consistent policies across schools for internal and external reassessment opportunities;

* reviewing the appropriateness of the three achievement grades to consider a more graduated grading system.

Maori Party choose Te Tai Tonga electorate candidate

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: The Maori Party has chosen lawyer Rahui Katene to stand in Te Tai Tonga.

In February Ms Katene missed out to chosen candidate Monte Ohia but selections opened again after his death last month.

The other two nominees were Georgina Haremate-Crawford (Gina) and Hector Matthews.

Te Tai Tonga electorate council co-chairman Raymond Hina said Ms Rahui would be "an excellent representative" for the largest electorate in the country.

Te Tai Tonga covers the South Island, Rakiura (Stewart Island), the Chatham Islands, Wellington and parts of the Hutt Valley.

"Rahui has had extensive experience working in Te Tau Ihu, as a lawyer, Treaty claims consultant, and former claims manager for Crown Forestry Rental Trust," Mr Hina said.

Ms Katene is the daughter of activist John Hippolite.

Maori Party co-leader said the selection was demanding considering the loss of Mr Ohia.

- NZPA

National releases ACC policy, Labour opposes it saying it would lead to privatisation

ONE NEWS: National is opening up accident compensation to private insurance companies if it wins this year's election.
The party has released its much-anticipated policy which will allow insurers to compete with the Accident Compensation Corporation for the multi-million dollar business of compensating injured workers.

ACC receives a claim every 17 seconds for accidents at home, work, while driving or playing sport, paying out $2.4 billion last year in compensation and rehabilitation.

It's big business and National wants private insurers to get a bigger slice of it.

"We think there's lots of other options the private sector might offer, greater entitlements speedier recovery, better service at a lower price. So we think it can make a real difference to the service that both employers and employees get," says John Key, National leader.

Under National, all employers will be able to get coverage from private insurers instead of ACC, essentially giving insurance companies access to an estimated $640 million a year in premium income.

"We're not afraid of a little competition and ACC shouldn't be either," says Key.

Critics say that will undermine New Zealand's state owned accident insurer.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says National's policy will have a devastating impact on ACC because it works on the basis of being a large social scheme.

"And you kick the guts out of it if you take the workers compensation out."

There's already some private involvement as employers can apply to ACC to manage their own workplace accidents. National wants to expand that.

It believes employers will be encouraged to improve safety because if they have a good record, they will get cheaper rates from private insurers.

"Bring in the private insurers and over time people will pay more not less," says Clark.

National is also promising to do a full stocktake of the ACC scheme and to create a new independent disputes tribunal so clients can challenge ACC decisions.

The party believes its plans will reduce the accidents that cause so much physical and financial pain.

Responses

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Listen to John Key speak about National's speak about their ACC policy (from Checkpoint 16 July 2008)

Listen to Maryan Street (ACC Minister) speak about National's ACC policy (from Checkpoint 16 July 2008)

Listen to reaction to National's ACC policy (from Morning Report 17 July 2008)

Son of accident victim running for Parliament with Act

STUFF.CO.NZ / THE PRESS: A Christchurch man whose mother was killed in a car crash when two drivers were allegedly racing is running for Parliament and plans to campaign for harsher penalties for criminals.

Former Christchurch mayoral candidate Aaron Keown said he would run as ACT's candidate for the Waimakariri electorate and would be on the party list, which will be released next month.

Keown said he was asked to run by ACT leader Rodney Hide and party founder Sir Roger Douglas.

Keown's mother, Laureen Reilly, was killed on Main North Road in Christchurch two months ago.

Police believe a Mitsubishi Lancer driven by a 25-year-old man had been dangerously overtaking a Nissan Skyline driven by an 18-year-old man when it crossed the centre line and crashed into the car in which Reilly was a passenger.

Keown said a cousin was killed while working at a Christchurch bottle store more than a decade ago.

He said his traumatic personal experience "gives me a strong position on law and order and crime a perspective that most politicians don't have because they have never been in the victim's shoes".

Keown favoured abolishing concurrent sentences and addressing the "gravy train" of legal aid.

"Every single crime you do, you will have to serve a sentence for, so concurrent sentencing would be gone. If you steal 10 cars you will serve 10 sentences not one," he said.

Keown would also like to see harsher penalties for dangerous drivers. "I think anyone who drives excessively dangerously should lose their licence for life."

Detective Sergeant Andrew Fabish, of the Papanui police, said charges over the Main North Road crash were likely to be laid soon.

United Future after evenings and Sunday ban on telemarketers

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The United Future Party wants to block telemarketers from calling people on Sunday or after 9pm.

It also wants to create a national register, protecting people from receiving calls from telemarketers.

Deputy leader Judy Turner says some people are fed up with being harassed in their homes by companies trying to sell them products they have no interest in.

She says people should be able to be free from advertising in their own homes in the evenings and a "do not call" list would allow people to make that choice.

The policy would apply to all profit-making companies.

No funding cuts to art sector under National

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National says it won't cut the current level of arts funding should the party win this year's election but will be keeping a close eye on how the sector's bureaucrats operate.

National Party Arts, Culture and Heritage spokesman Chris Finlayson said people had raised concerns that his party would reduce funding.

"While in these tighter economic times it is not appropriate to significantly grow funding, it would also be counter-productive to reduce funding," he said.

The creative sector was a source of pride and it was "essential we continue to support creative Kiwis and our creative sector".

Cabinet Minister Jim Anderton said National's commitment to maintain funding at the current level meant a cut in real terms.

"This government has substantially increased arts funding...if spending were kept the same it would amount to even bigger cuts under National because inflation will be much higher under National," he said.

"The same number of dollars will buy less. How is that not a cut?"

Mr Finlayson said National's approach was for "intelligent intervention".

The Music Commission and commitment to Kiwi music through NZ On Air would remain as would the Large Budget Screen Production Grant and the Screen Production Investment Fund.

National would support practical changes in legislative areas like the Copyright Act and updating the Film Commission Act. Mr Finlayson said National would:

* Ensure the Ministry of Culture and Heritage focused "on its core responsibilities";

* reform the Arts Council to improve service delivery;

* improve the Creative Communities scheme and strengthen links between the Arts Council, local authorities, and iwi;

* maintain the PACE scheme and help establish a creative-sector law centre;

* update the Historic Places Act;

* support the National Portrait Gallery through the National Library;

* support the reform of the Authors' Fund;

* require Te Papa to improve the quality of service provided by the National Services Directorate; and

* require all state funding agencies to be far more focused on artists and their needs.

Brian Tamaki not standing for election

3 NEWS: Destiny Church's self-styled bishop Brian Tamaki says he will not be standing for Parliament at this year's election.

Destiny Church was part of attempts to form a united Christian party last year, but the effort fell apart after disagreements between Destiny and independent Christian MP Gordon Copeland.

At the time Mr Tamaki did not rule out a tilt at Parliament.

Prominent Destiny members then went on to form the Family Party.

But a statement of behalf of Mr Tamaki today said he was not a member of any political party and would not be standing for Parliament.

NZ First after ban on violent games

ONE NEWS: New Zealand First is calling for a ban on violent video games as part of a new anti-gang policy.

They want R16 and R18 games off the shelf in a bid to stop them influencing young people.

The party says the games encourage young people to be more violent and join gangs.

"Well if you are going to fill your children in this country with pulp and with mush, why are you surprised the way they react and the way they head off into criminal behaviour," says New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

What do the young people who play these games think?

"I was playing one last week, my mum thinks it's quite violent but I actually don't do those actions, I just take it as a game," says one player.

Some of the footage that ONE News saw was so violent, it was not able to be broadcast.

But experts say the violent on screen images do not translate to real life.

"It would be a very big leap to imply that violent video games are going to inflate gang membership," says John Fenaughty from Netsafe.

The Chief Sensor, who rates these games, says putting R16 and R18 labels on them should make them off-limits to children anyway.

But it's an older audience that appreciates Winston Peters' anti-gang policy.

He is also planning to make gangs illegal, boost drug and alcohol rehab for ex-gang members and to get young people involved in military style training - instead of these games.

National would keep 20 hours free scheme

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party says it will retain the policy of 20 hours free early childhood education if it wins the general election, but will make some changes.

National released its policy on Friday, saying parents are not getting the 20 hours "free" under the current system, so the party will rename it "20 hours ECE".

The party's early childhood spokeswoman, Paula Bennett, says National would also remove the current limit, whereby children can attend a centre for a maximum of six hours a day.

Ms Bennett says the name change does not mean parents may face extra payments in the future, as the current subsidies and fee controls will be retained.

She says if Labour extended the scheme, either to younger children or by increasing the number of hours, National would not match it.

The party estimates the policy will cost about $7 million.

However, Prime Minister Helen Clark says her interpretation of National's policy could see the scheme "gone by lunchtime" and it gives no guarantee to those already making use of the scheme.

Peters: Monetary policy a major election issue

ONE NEWS: Winston Peters this week declared on NZI Business that monetary policy had become the most pressing issue facing New Zealand after climate change and one that would be a key election issue for New Zealand First.

It's hard not to understand where he is coming from.

The Reserve Bank's narrow mandate of fighting inflation has for the last few years kept interest rates and the currency at elevated levels. This has disadvantaged the export sector the very life blood of the country.

Reinforcing the importance of monetary policy right now is the likely recession brought on by high oil and food prices.

Businesses, home owners and investors are now crying out for an interest rate cut, which along with the tax cuts is about the only bright spot on the economic horizon. The problem though is that rising international oil and food prices mean that inflation is very strong and could hit 5%.

That's way outside the Reserve Bank's target band of 1% to 3% over the medium term.

The Bank does have some latitude to look through short term shocks to inflation and will inevitably do this, but it can't look through the second round impacts of imported inflation. So it is clearly caught in a tough bind.

Enter Winston Peters with his renewed calls for changes to the Reserve Bank Act.

He's demanding that the Bank's legislated mandate of price stability be adjusted so more consideration is given in future to things like economic growth and unemployment levels. This would mean the country would have to tolerate higher inflation. How much is a moot point.

Peter's argument is that without a change away from inflation targeting, the economy could lose about 95,000 jobs over the coming couple of years. This is because higher interest rates will restrict economic growth and prevent new jobs being created.

The argument is backed up by the economic forecasters Business and Economic Research Limited.

BERL's Senior Economist Dr Ganesh Nana mounts a strong argument that the world's obsession with inflation targeting is out of data. Dr Nana says New Zealand can now tolerate a little more (not a lot) inflation and we should instead concentrate on growth, helping the export sector and allowing our economy to be more than just one giant dairy farm.

Others such as Dr Don Brash, Brendan O'Donovan at Westpac or Brent Layton from the NZIER, mount equally compelling arguments about the need to keep inflation in check and are quick to remind people of the damage that inflation did to this country when it got away in the 1970s.

They point out that inflation targeting has worked well and that over the last few years we have had strong employment growth, low inflation, and a growing economy.

Never-the-less pressure is mounting on Reserve Bank Governor Allan Bollard to somehow look through high inflation and start cutting rates, possibly as soon as this month. The big drop off in consumer spending, a falling housing market and the weakening job market, will give him some confidence that domestic inflation is going to eventually start to ease.

Firms simply won't be able to pass on rising costs to consumers, because consumers are putting their wallets away.

That should give Bollard some room to move.

However, should the interest rate cuts spark a dramatic fall in the currency (which is entirely possible) then New Zealand could also start importing a lot more inflation through the higher cost of imports goods, in particular petrol.

While the cost of borrowing is dear to the hearts of many Kiwis' I think it's a bit much to expect pointy headed arguments about monetary policy targets to really be a major election campaign issue.

But after the election, should Winston Peters be in a position of power, it could be a different story. He's hinting loud and clear that reform of monetary policy will be a major coalition bargaining tool.

Funnily enough Labour has just started hinting of late that it might now be prepared to consider changes along the lines of Winston Peter's proposals.

National's Finance spokesman Bill English though is firmly against changes to the Monetary Policy Targets Agreement. This could lead to some real fireworks, should National need to do a deal with Winston Peters.

Of course let's not forget the Finance and Expenditure Committee has been quietly considering the monetary policy framework and whether some additional tools are needed to help monetary policy deal with inflation. It's due to report shortly.

There aren't many proven and viable options available to the Committee and it's probably unlikely to come up with anything drastic i.e. a Mortgage Levy, this close to an election.

The elephant in the room here of course is a Capital Gains Tax on housing investments.

It's the view of many economists, export groups, even the OECD that what will really help the Reserve Bank apply monetary policy is some sort of curb on property investments. The recent house price bubble, that saw Kiwis flock offshore for cheap fixed term loans, forced the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates higher for longer than it otherwise might have. The tax advantages real or perceived for housing have also meant less money has been invested in the productive side of the economy.

While housing appears to be self correcting, some argue it would still make sense to prevent a housing bubble from happening again in the future.

But while Winston Peters may be happy to bang on about monetary policy reform, he like other politicians isn't going to go near the scared cow of housing.

Capital gains taxes are an obvious vote loser and it's going to take a brave politician to tackle that issue.

Plus given it's the baby boomers generation that still has the most political clout and most of the investment property, it'll also probably need to be a politician of a different generation.

Watch Winston Peters discusses monetary policy on NZI Business

Nurses urge public to look at health policies before voting

ONE NEWS: Nurses are asking the public to consider politicians' support of health care policies before casting their votes this year.

The New Zealand Nurses Organisation launched its official manifesto in Wellington on Wednesday night.

It asks the government to take a more active role in the implementation of safe staffing issues, the promotion of positive employment relations and the enforcement of the Treaty of Waitangi within the health care system.

Chief executive Geoff Annals says the manifesto paints a picture of what nurses need and encourages all political parties to pick up commonsense policies for improving health.

He says nurses are the largest group of health professionals on the frontline and getting nursing right is fundamental to getting health services right.

At the top of their list is a call for more government support for  safe staffing policies, particularly when it comes to nursing care for the elderly.

Annals says they want a commitment all political parties is to continue and take a stronger role in leading changes across the health and disability sector.

More calls to put sports on free to air television

3 NEWS: Progressive leader Jim Anderton says iconic sports events should be screened on free TV channels with the Government compensating sports bodies for lost revenue.

Speaking at an election year film industry summit organised by Film Auckland tonight, Mr Anderton said some New Zealanders were growing up without seeing live cricket and rugby on TV.

"They can't afford pay television," he said. "The same arguments about seeing ourselves on screen and supporting our local industry that we apply to film and arts also apply to seeing our iconic sporting events on television."

Mr Anderton, who has previously raised the issue, said property rights could not be interfered with.

"But you can buy the rights."

New Zealand could consider anti-siphoning legislation, similar to that in force in Australia where specified major iconic events had to be screened free.

Mr Anderton said sporting bodies affected by lost revenue would need to be compensated but some loss could be reduced by re-auctioning screening rights among free-to-air broadcasters.

"Both cricket and rugby lost viewers when they went to pay TV and participation has inevitably fallen away afterwards. Kids who are not seeing their heroes live on TV are not following them in to sport to emulate them. The world's two largest sports events, the football world cup and the Olympics, won't allow broadcast rights to be monopolised by pay television."

NZPA

Government responds to economist's claims of Govt. spending

ONE NEWS: The government is lashing out at one of New Zealand's most prominent economists who is questioning where money is being spent.

In an ANZ financial report, economist Cameron Bagrie has criticised government spending priorities.

The report says that growth in total departmental spending has increased 7%, while front-line spending in services is up just an average of 5%.

Associate Finance Minister Trevor Mallard says the analysis is unfortunately very lightweight and shows a lack of understanding of what departments' budgets actually pay for.

He says Labour has been reinvesting in the public service, and he is disputing the claim that more funding is going into administration than into the frontline services.

Govt may construct more state housing

ONE NEWS: The government is considering a big boost to state housing construction to help lift the country out of recession.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen made the suggestion in the wake of an influential business opinion survey which points to the downturn lasting longer.

The influential New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Survey shows 18% of companies are already trading less.

While the same number of firms predict trade to continue to decline over the next three months, nearly three quarters expect their costs to rise, and almost half plan to raise their own prices.

Some see it as a form of stagflation, a word used to describe the economy decades ago.

"Stagflation was a popular term in the 1970's where we had both low growth and high inflation," says Brent Layton of NZIER.

While the official figures aren't out yet, even the Treasury is saying there is a possibility we've experienced what it describes as a technical recession. That's when economic growth declines for two consecutive quarters.

Brent Layton, Chief Executive of NZIER says at  this stage it's looking more like 1998, when New Zealand experienced a relatively shallow recession.

In 1998 commodity prices fell sharply in the wake of the Asian financial crisis before recovering.

The government says two billion dollar tax cuts from October will help.

To combat the effects of the great depression, the first Labour government built state houses and now there are hints about a similar initiative.

"The fact that the construction sector is coming off, may give the government the opportunity, and I'll put it no more than that at this stage... to think about  whether we can be somewhat more expansive in terms of trying to promote housing development," says Finance Minister Michael Cullen.

Cullen won't reveal more about the proposal other than to say it could be in place over the next two to three years.

Labour says National will dump Kiwi Saver

ONE NEWS: There is yet another hint that the KiwiSaver retirement scheme will change under a National Government.

Labour claims National MP Shane Ardern let it slip to a community newspaper that small businesses may be given some relief in terms of future employer contributions to their workers' schemes.

National says the MP doesn't speak for the party.  But the Prime Minister says this is another revealing slip-up.

"KiwiSaver they have always opposed, and we've never believed that in their hearts, that they had any intention if they were elected of preserving it," says PM Helen Clark.

Seven hundred thousand New Zealanders are currently signed up to KiwiSaver.

Labour MPs walk to PM's house

ONE NEWS: New Zealand leaders have been putting their stamp on the environment by walking to a key strategy meeting.

At a time when people are struggling to pay the bills the Labour Party wants to look more "in touch".

Earlier this year ministers were accused of being "out of touch" when arriving to meetings in their new BMWs.

But the walk to Tuesday's special caucus was to talk strategy for the party, how to turn Labour's fortunes in the polls.

Some remain sceptical of the poll results.

"We're not convinced those polls are accurate at all, we're waiting for the election," says Tim Barnett, Labour MP.

Others are very aware of Labour's position in the results.

"I think there is a sense of realism, that we've got some way to go given the polls but we haven't given up," says David Parker, Energy Minister.

But the general message to Labour members is to remain positive.

"We're running a marathon and not a sprint that's always been the case," Prime Minister Helen Clark says.

Though, some do admit that Labour is not the race favourite.

"I believe we're the underdog in the elections but underdogs win sometimes. None of the overdogs won the women's tennis at Wimbeldon," says Michael Cullen, Deputy Prime Minister.

Interviews

Listen to the Prime Minister Helen Clark speak to Radio New Zealand's Geoff Robinson (Morning Report, Wed 9/7/08), click here.

National using Parliamentary Services funds to pay for Crosby Textor

NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW/NZPA: National said it uses Parliamentary Services funds for legitimate purposes in the wake of a report suggesting Crosby-Textor invoices are going to leader John Key's parliamentary office.

Last weekend author Nicky Hager reported National had hired Australian political strategy company Crosby/Textor. The company is alleged to use controversial tactics, including push polling, designed to influence voters, for clients.

Today in the Sunday Star-Times Hager said Crosby-Textor invoices in 2007-08 were going to Key's parliamentary office instead of the party.

Hager said this suggested they were being paid with Parliamentary Services money.

National has made a point of saying Parliamentary Service money, which includes a leader's fund, should not be used for election purposes after Labour changed the law on election funding when it was found to have breached the spending rules.

National has a policy of not saying what consultants it uses. However, a spokesman said there had been no wrong-doing.

"We only use Parliamentary services money for legitimate activities not for campaign expenses," he said.

Asked if the funds could be used for consultants he said it would depend on what they were asked to do.

"Hager seems to be saying we've done something improper and that's not true."

Hager wrote The Hollow Men based on 475 stolen or leaked emails from former National leader Don Brash. A police investigation found no evidence of hacking and Hager has always maintained the emails were leaked to him by National Party sources and said those who claimed they were gained by theft should apologise to him.

Hager's story last week, which included diary-type references and dates and details of Mr Key's meetings, prompted the party to raise concerns about security with Parliamentary Services.

National to press on with big tax cuts despite warnings

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National says it will not water down its plans for tax cuts because of the economic slowdown, saying the short-term pain of a hit on the Government's books will pay off in longer-term economic benefits.

Despite Labour saying there is no room for substantial tax cuts without borrowing or cuts to services, National MP Bill English said yesterday the party was still hoping to offer "significant" reductions in tax.

Speaking earlier on TV One's Agenda, he said National was focusing on the longer-term benefits it expected tax cuts to have on economic growth, but effectively admitted there would be a short-term fiscal impact.

"If there's some fiscal impact of them in the short term, that may be worth wearing for the longer-term benefits and that's our focus."

Mr English told the Herald later that his party would not know the state of the Government's books until they were opened before the election, but the current forecasts were for a zero surplus in three years.

"It's possible it could go into the red, but that won't be a reason for us to pull back on tax cuts."

Finance Minister Michael Cullen has repeatedly warned there is no room for larger tax cuts than Labour's own three-year programme unless there is increased government borrowing or cuts to services.

Despite this, National has also not backed away from leader John Key's earlier references to a figure of $50 a week for workers on the average wage.

Mr Key said yesterday $50 was his estimate of the kind of cuts New Zealanders were expecting, "and we are doing our best to meet expectations".

He said the party anticipated announcing its policy at the start of the election campaign "but we remain committed to meaningful tax cuts".

"We've always argued there are two benefits to tax cuts. One is immediate relief they will give to New Zealanders. The other is that it's important for a healthy growing economy."

Mr English said Labour's current policies would come at a cost to the next government, including the purchase of TranzRail and future investment.

"It's not our intention to allow the thrashing around of a dying government to dictate what happens in this country for the next three to five years. There will be some costs to the rather desperate policy choices Labour are making at the moment, but we are not going to let that get in the way."

Labour MPs meeting for brainstorm in Wellington

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: At a meeting in Wellington tomorrow, Labour MPs will try to figure out what they can do to turn the polls around.

The Labour caucus strategy meeting is being held at Premier House.

Prime Minister Helen Clark today predicted National's lead in the polls would start to slip when the election campaign started and said she had no thoughts about handing the leadership to someone else.

The PM was asked today whether she would consider stepping aside to give Labour "a new face" before the election if the polls don't change.

The last four have shown National's support at more than 50 per cent, and its lead over Labour at more than 20 points.

"That's a question I'm not even prepared to contemplate," she said.

"I believe that in the home straight before the election itself the polls will begin to narrow."

Labour has struggled to turn around the polls with many commentators saying it appears that voters have turned their backs on the Government.

Helen Clark said voters knew little about the National Party in terms of personnel and policy.

National, meanwhile, said it was planning to release more policies during the current two week parliamentary recess.

They would primarily be on ACC, employment and workplace relations and small business.

Last week the party's position on ACC hit the headlines after a report by Merrill Lynch said Australian insurers could reap $200 million from moves to open ACC up to private competition.

Deputy leader Bill English told Agenda on TV One that the small business policy would be released. He said a voluntary probation policy for new workers would be part of that.

Last year National leader John Key said the party had no plans to make "major changes" to the Employment Relations Act.

National's previous policy was to create a new act merging the ERA and Employment Contracts Act. It included removing union monopoly bargaining over collective agreements, establishing a 90 day probation period for new workers, changing mediation, adjudication and personal grievance mechanisms and limiting union access to the workplace.

Today National also outlined its broadcasting policy and a party spokesman said more releases were planned in the coming weeks of second tier policy announcements.

National would dump TVNZ's charter

ONE NEWS: Changes are afoot for TVNZ if the National Party has its way.

The party has released a broadcasting policy which would mean fundamental changes for the state broadcaster and its funding arrangements.

National's proposing to do away with TVNZ's programming charter and the $15 million it gets every year to meet its charter commitments.

Instead the money will be allocated to New Zealand On Air with all broadcasters and independent companies able to access it for production purposes.

The policy is only a page long and has no details on future funding plans for any of the state broadcasters.

But National's Broadcasting spokesman Jonathan Coleman doesn't believe it's light on detail.

Coleman says any decisions about funding amounts for TVNZ and RNZ will be made when the Government sets its budget.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Helen Clark is criticising the National Party policy.

Clark says the policy implies National will take a great deal of money off TVNZ, despite the company being required to deliver the charter in the public interest.

She says National states it would continue to fund TVNZ - but won't say say how much would be spent, or where the money would go.

Criticism

NEW ZEALAND HERALD (abridged): Paul Norris, head of broadcasting at Christchurch Polytechnic and a former director of Television NZ news and current affairs, said the policy was the "first step to the sale of TVNZ".

Paul Norris predicted some programmes wouldn't get made if broadcasters were all behaving commercially.

"NZ On Air might think, 'Our objectives require more programmes for minorities - promotion of Maori language and culture and so forth - and we really want a programme about disabilities or something of that sort but we can't get a broadcaster to be interested in that'."

Broadcasting Minister Trevor Mallard said without TVNZ having charter obligations there was little point in keeping it as a state-owned broadcaster.

"The promise to retain ownership rings hollow. This policy is a Trojan horse privatisation down the track."

Mr Mallard was suspicious that a National government would also look to commercialise or even privatise Radio New Zealand.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said the policy would degrade TVNZ's ability to act as a public-interest broadcaster.

Interviews

To hear Jonathon Coleman and Trevor Mallard speak, click here (from Radio NZ's Morning Report 8/7/08)

To hear Paul Norris speak, click here (from Radio NZ's Morning Report 8/7/08)

Your Views: National's 90 day job probation policy

Employers are welcoming moves by the National Party to enable small businesses to employ people for 90 days on a probationary basis and the Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union is against such a policy. The EPMU says it's unfair for workers' rights to depend on the size of the company they work for.

Click here for the full story and then leave your comments below.

Your Views is run by this blog and is a new item that will be appearing throughout the coming months.

Clark not thinking of stepping aside

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Helen Clark says National's lead in the polls will start to slip when the election campaign starts and she isn't even thinking about handing the leadership to someone else.

The Prime Minister was asked on Newstalk ZB this morning whether she would consider stepping aside to give Labour "a new face" before the election if the polls don't change.

The last four have shown National's support at more than 50 per cent, and its lead over Labour at more than 20 points.

"That's a question I'm not even prepared to contemplate," she said when she was asked about the leadership.

"I believe that in the home straight before the election itself the polls will begin to narrow."

Helen Clark said voters knew little about the National Party in terms of personnel and policy.

"I just say 'have a little patience'. As the policy is crowbarred out of the National Party we will start to see all the things that led people to vote Labour in nine years ago," she said.

Helen Clark said National sometimes let policies "slip out" and it seemed to happen when deputy leader Bill English was on television.

"Last year it was privatisation, this year it's the right to fire policy," she said.

National reveals policy allowing businesses to fire staff after 90 days

ONE NEWS: The party behind one of New Zealand's most controversial job laws is putting workers back on notice.

The National Party introduced the Employment Contracts Act 17 years ago. Now, the party has revealed, on TV ONE's Agenda Programme, that it will allow small businesses to fire new staff after 90 days if it gets into power.

Two years ago National MP Wayne Mapp tried to introduce a Private Members Bill which allowed employers to take on staff without the risk of personal grievance procedures.

The unions took to the streets then to fight National's 90-day probation plan for new workers, and they are still against it.

"It means that they wouldn't have any rights, any protections against unfair dismissal, or unfair treatment at work," says Andrew Little, EPMU National Secretary.

Mapp's bill was rejected, but the idea is back on National's agenda.

"People who are on the margins of the labour market need the opportunity to show they can do it. And for small business who are under real pressure - the decision to take someone on is a big decision and a big risk for the business," says Bill English, National Deputy Leader.

National says the 90-day probation period will apply to small businesses with fewer than 20 staff.

And it will be at the discretion of the employer to pick and choose who goes on probation.

Most western countries have probation periods, and employers say it will encourage them to give migrants and people with poor employment records a chance.

But Little says this is not the way to go.

"We want to support small businesses. The way to do that is not to take away the rights of working people."

The policy is also one that the Labour Party will not support.

"We believe that young workers, vulnerable workers deserve protection," says Trevor Mallard, Labour Minister.

National will soon reveal its industrial relations policies and says it will not contain anything too radical, like a return to the controversial Employment Contracts Act.

Government Against Policy

STUFF.CO.NZ: Miss Clark said today the Government totally opposed it.

"At the moment there is a provision in the law for a probation period for new employees, but you don't lose all your rights," she said.

"This takes away the rights of new employees.

"Workers aren't going to give up a job they've had for a while to go and work for another small employer when they're not going to have any rights."

Miss Clark said it would be counter-productive.

"They say this is only going to apply to a business with fewer than 20 employees – this is completely daft," she said on TV One's Breakfast programme.

"Unemployment is at 3.6 per cent. . . we have to take in tens of thousands of people on work permits because we don't have enough people here to do the work."

NZ First to make Reserve Bank Act an election issue

DOMINION POST/STUFF.CO.NZ: NZ First  leader Winston Peters has signalled that changes to the Reserve Bank Act to allow more flexibility in setting interest rates could be a bottom line for his support after the election.

"NZ First will insist the act be amended after the next election - irrespective of who wins it," Mr Peters said yesterday.

He said central bank governor Alan Bollard and his predecessor, Don Brash, had not properly implemented the policy targets agreements, signed by Finance Minister Michael Cullen and by Mr Peters when he was treasurer.

"He's not applying the policy targets agreement, no. You do have to change the act to give it far more force and authority and common sense."

On Wednesday, Associate Finance Minister Trevor Mallard signalled a break with 20 years of consensus by proposing a shift away from interest rates as the sole weapon against inflation.

National finance spokesman Bill English backed the current framework, saying softening the inflation target would ultimately lead to even higher interest rates.

"This is not the time to start tinkering with a monetary framework which is in use worldwide."

Last month he said that, if National won the election, it would not rewrite the policy targets agreements.

Mr Peters yesterday highlighted a new section in the Reserve Bank's statement of intent that said the bank aimed to deepen its understanding of "options for alternative instruments".

Mr Peters said he was encouraged by that, but feared 95,000 jobs would be lost unless it acted soon.

"We advocate a rewrite of the act to enable the governor to take into account the balance of payments, exports, gdp growth and full employment when setting the official cash rate."

The finance and expenditure committee has been investigating options and is expected to report back in the next month. It is considered unlikely to reach a consensus on possible changes.

Mr Mallard has said it was too soon to anticipate the options to be included in Labour's policy.

National's Taranaki candidate quits race in mysterious circumstances

TARANAKI DAILY NEWS/STUFF.CO.NZ: National Party candidate Clem Coxhead has quit the New Plymouth electoral race yesterday in puzzling circumstances.

His bombshell resignation came just four months after he was selected by local party faithful in a public and hard-fought battle.

In a press statement to the Taranaki Daily News, Mr Coxhead said he had stepped down because of "work commitments". He will be helping run his partner's clothing shop in Mangorei Rd, New Plymouth.

However, National Party insiders have told the Taranaki Daily News Mr Coxhead was asked to step aside by party power-brokers at a meeting on Thursday.

Both Mr Coxhead and National Party general manager Mark Oldershaw denied this yesterday.

Mr Oldershaw said Mr Coxhead came to the decision after realising "holding a seat in New Plymouth was a big undertaking".

Talking to the Taranaki Daily News yesterday, surrounded by glittering earrings in the Bella Ladies' Fashions and Accessories shop, the former candidate said he now needed to help the business.

"Things are getting a bit busy so it's better to pull out now and let somebody else in," he said.

"It does seem strange, but as I said I am calling it quits and that's it."

The Taranaki Daily News has also been told that business dealings in Australia could have been behind yesterday's change of mind.

When asked whether that was so, Mr Coxhead said it could be people in Australia who held grudges against him contacting the paper with false information.

"I had a business over there that went in to receivership because of some activities over there that other people were involved in," Mr Coxhead said. "People over there, one of the things they like to do is put pressure on people to muscle in on their business."

He was referring to an airport shuttle business. He also suggested people in the Australian Labour Party held grudges against him.

Mr Coxhead said he was once a campaign manager for the Liberal Party.

"There's some people obviously trying to stir up stuff there, but that's politics," Mr Coxhead said.

"If there is anything over there it could be to do with that."

Mr Coxhead is a former farmer from Opunake and was a real estate salesman when he was chosen for the New Plymouth electorate in February. He said entering politics had been a dream since he was nine years old.

At the time of his selection, the branch was bitterly divided after an attempt to the stack membership with people sympathetic to Waitara leaseholders.

Several high-profile members quit the branch in disgust.

Last night, the president of the New Plymouth branch, Jonathan Marshall, could not be reached by the Taranaki Daily News.

The position for National's new candidate would be advertised from today.

Labour candidate and current New Plymouth MP Harry Duynhoven said Mr Coxhead's resignation was "strange and bizarre. I'm a little surprised".

"It's an interesting situation for them (the National Party) to be in. My understanding is the selection was quite hard fought."

Mr Duynhoven said the loss of his opponent would not change anything for him and he would "continue to do everything I have done for every election".

Clark compares Key with Brash, English

ONE NEWS: With the election still at least three months away, the New Zealand campaign may have begun to get personal.

The Prime Minister  launched a direct attack on opposition leader John Key on Sunday morning, labelling him thin-skinned and an unknown quantity.

Clark says Key has no background in public life, and has spent years outside New Zealand doing heaven knows what.

She suggests he compares poorly with his predecessors, saying Don Brash had presence and authority and despite bad election results, Bill English is a very clever man.

Clark says the National Party leader will hang himself, because while he is a very carefully scripted and managed candidate, he is not good on his feet.

She says gloomy headlines do not bother her, and calls John Key the least of her worries.

Her words come after revelations in the last two weeks that Key and the 2008 National campaign was once again being coached and counselled by Australian political marketing firm Crosby Textor, which the party had remained reasonably circumspect about until that point.

Key is shrugging off the direct attack, simply saying that he and Clark are very different people.

He says while he may not have years of political know-how, he brings a wide range of international and domestic experience to the table.

Key operated outside of New Zealand primarily in the late 1990s. He had worked for a number of local business and finance companies beforehand and then joined Merrill Lynch as head of Asian foreign exchange in Singapore in 1995. He was actively headhunted by the National Party after they learnt of his interest in a political career.

While the accounting and finance sector alone appeared to form the majority of his pre-political career,  Key says he understands the real issues facing New Zealand, and won't be bound up by issues from the 70s and 80s.

New Zealand Morgan Poll: July 2008

NZPA/STUFF.CO.NZ: Another opinion poll has shown National leading Labour by more than 20 points.

The New Zealand Morgan poll, released last night, puts National on 51.5 per cent, down one point compared with the last Morgan survey, and Labour on 30.5 per cent, also down one point.

The gap of 21 points is in line with the results of three polls released last week.

The New Zealand Herald DigiPoll put National's lead at 22.5 points.

TV One's Colmar Brunton poll reported a gap of 26 points and the Fairfax Media poll put it at 24 points.

Tonight's poll showed support for the Greens was up one point to 8 per cent, New Zealand First was unchanged on 4 per cent, the Maori Party was up half a point to 2.5 per cent, ACT was unchanged on 2 per cent and United Future gained half a point to 1 per cent.

The poll analysis said New Zealanders were being squeezed by the rising prices of petrol and food, forcing them to cut back on spending.

Its consumer confidence rating showed a record high number of people, 49 per cent, saying now was a bad time to buy major household items.

Crosby/Textor: How they operate

SUNDAY STAR TIMES/STUFF.CO.NZ: The poster message looks as though it has been scrawled in lipstick.

"How would you feel if a bloke on early release attacked your daughter?"

In another, the blonde, sensible-looking teacher looks accusingly at the camera. There is extensive bruising around her eye and a cut to her lip.

"Under Labour it's not just pupils that get bad marks," reads the message.

These are the dark maestros of modern political campaigning, Australians Lynton Crosby and Mark Textor, in full flight during the 2005 UK elections. Modern parliamentary campaigning doesn't get much more raw, emotional and negative than this.

Now Crosby/Textor are working for John Key too. So just how might they shape National's campaigning style in 2008?

It appears to be an extraordinarily touchy subject for National. Following the Star-Times report last weekend on Crosby/Textor's hiring, Key refused to confirm or deny the company is working for him, despite intense questioning by media over several days.

Key declined a request for an interview with the Star-Times, saying through a spokesman that National's would be a positive campaign.

While Crosby/Textor are known for stirring up deep feelings through their advertising, they are also known for the more mundane but equally essential political art of ensuring discipline within a party. They emphasise restricting messages from the party to a few key lines repeated with monotonous regularity.

There are already signs of a clear focus at work within National. Most strikingly, it is rare to see any other National MP on television apart from Key. Since late last year he has fronted all policy announcements, to the extent there have been any. Senior National MPs, once regular visitors to the Press Gallery with their press releases, have all but disappeared from doing the rounds to promote themselves.

Radio New Zealand has had problems making a programme on National's shadow cabinet because National MPs have refused to be interviewed on their portfolios, saying they have been told they cannot.

And on some rare occasions when senior National MPs do front for comment, the focus still remains on John Key, even bizarrely so. In a June 22 appearance on TVNZ's Agenda programme, National's justice spokesman, Simon Power, managed to introduce John Key into the conversation nine times, with comments such as "as John has said", "as John talked about earlier this year" and "John has said on occasions".

The result has been a transformation in Key's mana and mystique. Last year, many of the public felt they did not know John Key. Now he has been built up so that he rivals Helen Clark in stature.

Whether Crosby/Textor, National's own strategists, or Key himself, are responsible for overseeing the disciplined internal campaign that has brought about that change is not yet known.

Some have attacked investigative journalist Nicky Hager for raising the Crosby/Textor issue in the Star-Times, saying pungent campaigning is simply the nature of politics.

But Auckland University political studies senior lecturer Jennifer Lees-Marshment, who was in the UK for the 2005 campaign, believes the company is a special case.

She says Crosby/Textor have the potential to put a strong, and potentially divisive, imprint on National's election campaign in the next four or five months.

"They use a technique called insights marketing, where communication is developed in response to understanding people's deepest values and fears," says Lees-Marshment.

"They are playing on people's real underlying feelings, the feelings they don't articulate in public."

The technique is imported from commercial marketing, where insights marketing may, for example, be used to drum up fear in order to sell burglar alarms.

Crosby/Textor's 2005 campaign for the Conservatives, under the catchline "Are you thinking what we're thinking", included advertising highlighting concerns over immigration and crime.

But such techniques are not always successful.

Crosby/Textor may have helped Australian Liberal leader John Howard win a string of victories, but the Tories lost in Britain in 2005. And negative campaigning that is too strong can trigger a backlash.

Lees-Marshment questions whether an intensely negative campaign that plays on New Zealanders' fears will be necessary for National, when it is already regularly registering at 50% in the polls.

She says a positive and upbeat campaign makes perfect sense at this stage for National. "Crosby/Textor's history doesn't mean they're going to repeat that approach this time in New Zealand," she says.

However if National does plan to develop attack themes in its campaign, her pick would be that Crosby/Textor will be looking at probing and then exploiting people's fears about the economy.

"They may say, you could lose your house, or you could lose your job. They may say milk has gone up by this amount, meat has gone up by this much."

But aren't these perfectly legitimate political messages to run?

Up to a point, says Lees-Marshment. Where she takes issue with Crosby/Textor is that its advertising can be so simple, and so powerful, that it can stir up fears without offering any solutions. Do too much of that, she says, and you are well on the way to stirring up political disillusionment and disengagement.

There have been leaks to journalists, presumably from National, emphasising that Crosby/Textor have been used by not just Key and former leader Don Brash, but also former National leaders Jenny Shipley and Jim Bolger.

The suggestion is that with such a long pedigree with the National Party, Crosby/Textor have been part of the New Zealand political landscape for many years already.

Former Bolger press secretary Richard Griffin confirms Crosby/Textor have been used by National for many years.

But he says they were not an important part of National's campaigning, in part because their ideas were seen as too extreme.

He says in 1996, they wanted to mount personality-based attacks on National's opponents, despite the fact that was the first MMP election, and National was preparing for the possibility of governing with some of its former political opponents.

"Jim Bolger gave me the impression that he wasn't comfortable with them and they left me with the impression they thought we were all a bit wet behind the ears," says Griffin.

"They were brash, and they were more aggressive than I was used to, and they were more personality-focussed. I was very uncomfortable with the fact they were targeting others in the race that we might well have to talk to after the election, particularly Helen Clark and Winston Peters."

Griffin says Bolger turned down some radio advertisements Crosby/Textor proposed that would have personally attacked Clark and Peters.

"Jim Bolger was continually reminding them, and me, that don't forget this is a new era, and we're going to have to talk to people after the election," says Griffin.

"They didn't quite seem to understand the New Zealand psyche."

And he says that if National is now contemplating using any of Crosby/Textor's more extreme campaigning options, they should think again.

`I think Key's personality will probably win them the election, and they'd be foolish to go past that."

Key being dishonest over TranzRail - Govt.

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Finance Minister Michael Cullen is demanding an explanation from National leader John Key over his past shareholding interests in Tranzrail.

The Government on Wednesday said Mr Key was a Tranzrail shareholder when he commented publicly on Tranzrail in mid-June 2003.

Mr Key told Radio New Zealand he had sold the shares earlier in the year but National has now confirmed they were sold just a week before he made the comments.

Parliamentary records show that two months before that, John Key asked detailed questions in the House about Tranzrail, when he was still a shareholder.

Dr Cullen says the National leader has misled the public and Parliament, and owes explanation.