NZ Herald Digi-Poll April 2008

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: National has reopened a wide lead over Labour in the Herald DigiPoll survey, increasing pressure on the Government to produce a strong Budget to change its fortunes.

Labour is keen to avoid expectations running away on it on May 22, but a lot is riding on what it comes up with.

All eyes will be on the tax cuts - and any other surprises the Government might have up its sleeve - to help people struggling with high food, petrol and mortgage costs.

Of the voters polled in the DigiPoll survey, 22.1 per cent rated tax cuts as the issue most likely to influence their vote at this year's election.

That made tax cuts the most influential issue.

Further evidence that people's wallets may decide the election came from the economy's 18.5 per cent rating, making it the second most important issue.

Among Labour voters, tax cuts were also the most influential issue.

However, hospital waiting lists were a close second emphasising the delicate balance Finance Minister Michael Cullen must strike in his ninth Budget between cutting taxes and providing public services.

Dr Cullen was giving nothing away yesterday when asked about what might be done to alleviate the financial pressures households are feeling.

He said no decision had been made yet on the timing and size of tax cuts.

"That decision will be taken when I get the final updated forecast, which is tomorrow [Tuesday] evening," he said.

It is not known how the Government will offer the "timely" relief Helen Clark has spoken of this week, because tax cuts may not come into effect until April 1 next year.

National could govern alone with its 52.1 per cent support in the poll, which also gives John Key his highest rating as preferred Prime Minister of 48 per cent.

Prime Minister Helen Clark gained 45.3 per cent support.

Four weeks ago, Labour had narrowed the gap to 10 points.

But that has blown back out to 14.9 points after a month during which the Prime Minister trumpeted the Chinese free trade agreement, but also had to contend with unwanted distractions from Labour's election year congress.

National has gained 2.2 percentage points in the poll. Labour is down 2.1 points, on 37.2 per cent support.

The Greens will be heartened by their 5.2 per cent poll rating, which makes them the only minor party above the 5 per cent threshold.

New Zealand First failed to get a boost from a month of heavy publicity about free trade, state asset and immigration, and remains on 1.5 per cent.

The Budget is also likely to approve spending on improving broadband internet, something the Government was planning before National last week announced its surprise $1.5 billion plan.

Labour's move - which is likely to involve Government investment in a different form to National's, as well as financial help for a new transtasman cable - is part of a wider attempt to show the party still has the long-term vision needed to lead the country.

But National's deputy leader and finance spokesman, Bill English, last night said voters would be cynical about any attempt to "throw cash" around in the Budget.

"After eight years of lost opportunities, it's going to be hard for Labour to get the public's attention," he said.

The poll of 769 respondents was conducted between April 5 and 26, and has a margin of error of 3.5 per cent. The results are from decided voters only. Undecided voters totalled 6.3 per cent of those polled.

Clem Simich quitting politics

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Deputy Speaker of Parliament and National MP Clem Simich is to quit politics.

Mr Simich entered Parliament in 1992 after the resignation of Sir Robert Muldoon.

A minister in the last National government, he held the police, corrections and racing portfolios and was the minister in charge of the Audit Department.

Mr Simich says he has appreciated his opportunities in Parliament but believes it is the right time to move on.

He will continue as Deputy Speaker until this year's election.

More polls

NZ VOTES 08: The NZ Votes 08 blog has just added a new poll to complement the current poll. This poll will change every week and the results of this poll may be used as part of news articles on the blog. So its time to get ready and start voting!

Govt wants to rush through tax cuts

THE PRESS: The Government is preparing to rush legislation into Parliament locking tax cuts into place before the election.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen has confirmed he will introduce legislation on Budget night locking in his tax cuts, the size, shape and timing of which are being finalised.

The move comes as the latest Fairfax Nielsen poll puts National 18 points ahead of Labour, a five-point narrowing of the gap on February's Fairfax poll but still enough for National, on 52 per cent, to govern alone.

Cullen's move may be an indication that April 1 is the most likely date for tax cuts to kick in, although Cullen insisted that no decisions had been made.

But he effectively conceded that without legislation locking the tax cuts in place, Labour would be opening the door to National campaigning on a platform that voters cannot bank on Cullen delivering, while promising relief through bigger tax cuts of its own.

The so-called "chewing gum" tax cuts of between 67c and $10 a week promised by Cullen in his 2005 Budget were later canned after they were widely derided.

But the Government has had to weigh up the likely inflationary impact of tax cuts and is unlikely to bring them forward while there is a risk they might keep interest rates up higher for longer.

"We want to lock in those tax reductions so people can't say in an election campaign they're not actually there, whatever the date may be," Cullen said. "It's desirable to have a lead time on tax changes anyway, and if you're laying out a programme I think people want to know that programme is actually meant. If an alternative government wants to change that programme, of course, they require the votes in Parliament to do so."

With today's Fairfax poll showing Labour far behind National, the May 22 Budget could be pivotal in turning around public sentiment, as the Government dangles tax cuts as relief for struggling households.

The Government has been tight-lipped on the size, shape and timing of its tax cuts, although Cullen has signalled a three-year package.

Fairfax Media-Nielsen Poll Results

THE DOMINION POST: A staggering one in 10 voters are considering a move to Australia as today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll shows Labour struggling to turn around a mood for change.

The The Dominion Post poll puts National 18 points ahead of Labour - a five-point narrowing of the gap on the last Fairfax poll, in February, but still enough for National, on 52 per cent, to govern alone.

A bigger blow for the Government, however, may be the poll's finding that voters are losing faith in Labour as a safe pair of hands, as it faces the fallout from rising food, petrol and power prices against a backdrop of increased mortgage rates, a housing slump and high-profile job layoffs blamed on the high Kiwi dollar.

The Government is dangling tax cuts in next month's Budget as relief for householders - and Finance Minister Michael Cullen has confirmed there will be legislation on Budget night to "lock in" tax cuts before the election - even if they do not come into effect till next year.

But confidence in the economy could prove equally decisive.

Just 33 per cent of voters questioned for today's poll trusted Labour to manage the economy best, compared with 46 per cent who rated National a safer pair of hands.

That may be having an impact on how people feel about their prospects in New Zealand, with one in 10 respondents confirming they are considering a move to Australia in the next 12 months. The finding suggests that National's plan to campaign on narrowing the wage gap with Australia will strike a chord.

In the past year a net 29,900 crossed the Tasman, but on today's poll figures, that number is set to jump.

Dr Cullen said it was no surprise that people were worried about the economy as rising prices coincided with fears about job security for the first time "in a long time".

He was also unsurprised by the high numbers looking at Australia as an alternative, "given the enormous publicity that's been given to migration to Australia".

But he cautioned against an overly optimistic view of prospects there. "Of course confidence has collapsed in Australia as well. I think people better look fairly carefully.

"And inflation is higher in Australia than it is in New Zealand. I think there's still the picture the Australian economy is booming along, whereas they're running into some headwind as well."

Today's poll records a three-point drop for National on the February poll, while Labour is on 34, up two.

National leader John Key remains preferred prime minister on 42 per cent. But Prime Minister Helen Clark has clawed back some support, rising to 33 per cent and narrowing the gap from 15 points to 9.

The Greens were the only other party to break the 5 per cent threshold, with 6 per cent support.

The poll questioned 1068 people f between April 9 and April 22. It has a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Scoop’s Gordon Campbell interviews Tariana Turia

SCOOP.CO.NZ: Under MMP, small parties are assumed to be niche players with clearly defined identities - but even in a small caucus of MPs, a diversity of personalities and ideological hues will co-exist. If nothing else, the mixture adds volatility to the negotiations, post election.

The Maori Party is no exception. On its good days, its diversity ( Hone Harawira, Dr Pita Sharples, Tariana Turia, Te Ururoa Flavell ) is one of its key strengths. Still, just how the party manages to achieve policy consensus remains something of a mystery to the outside world. Which can be a problem - especially when the media coverage of smaller parties is conducted almost exclusively around their role as pawns or wild cards in the big party game of government formation.

Policy hardly ever enters the frame. As the Canterbury political scientist Therese Arseneau has pointed out, a recent study found that fully 81 % of media stories about smaller parties filed during the 2005 election campaign were about their possible role in the political game. Less than a fifth of those stories actually carried information about their policies - and of 22 front page stories on smaller parties during the campaign, not one was about policy.Scoop has tried to do both. Scoop political editor Gordon Campbell spoke to Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia about her views on a range of policies affecting Maori, and her party's likely positioning, post election.

Campbell: Behind the rhetoric of one nation, one waka, there is still a political reluctance to fund and target programmes to indigenous people, among whom, as the statistics tell us, the health, education and income needs are greatest. How does the Maori Party propose to square that circle?

Turia : I don't believe that we've got one waka, and one nation. If you look at the way the systems in this country have been organised - and Parliament is one of them - then everything is seen through a particular set of eyes. And they're not Maori eyes. Maori people don't have any say how these things are organised, how the state operates, how state departments operate. So I'm not sure about the one waka or the one nation.

Campbell: One waka, one nation is an aspiration. Yet politically, isn't it harder to promote affirmative action policies now, than even at the start of this decade ?

Turia : It is always difficult… Mainly because where [ the Government ] operates programmes that are based on need, they don't trust people to find their own solutions. So what you've got is a lot of money being wasted because you have bureaucracy prescribing how to combat the issues that are confronting various communities - Maori communities, Pacific communities. Other people determine what the solutions will be, and how they will be achieved. You will never achieve them.

Campbell: Maori solutions tend to be highly de-centralised, and communal. Around Parliament, do you personally feel you are paddling upstream in that respect, within a political system that is highly centralised ?

The Foreshore and Seabed Act

Campbell: The contradictions are not all on the pakeha side of the fence. Can you tell me how the Maori Party can support the iwi agreements under the Foreshore and Seabed Act, while at the same time seeking to repeal that same Act. Isn't this a case of decrying the cake and eating it too?

Turia : We're not decrying the cake and eating it too. That's because those iwi have chosen to take advantage of the legislation that the Government has put in place. But both of those iwi who have negotiated with the Government have also said they're opposed to the Foreshore and Seabed legislation. However, its not the Maori Party's responsibility - and nor would we take it on ourselves - to interfere with what iwi decide, to advantage their position. In general, at the end of the day, the Government is dealing with iwi. Particular areas of the foreshore however, belong to hapu. They do not belong to iwi conglomerates.

Taxation And Economic Development

Campbell: Reportedly, half of all Maori are located in the poorest three deciles of New Zealand. Is the right time for personal tax cuts that are bound to deliver their biggest cash benefits to the more affluent people in New Zealand?

Turia :That's true. How we're approaching the whole tax cuts situation is probably different to how we're being read. What we have felt is that those who under $25,000 a year are the ones who should be receiving the tax cut. In fact, we don't feel those people should be paying taxes. $25,000 is the poverty line in this country. If someone is earning $500 a week and their take home pay is $400 a week, and their rent is $250- 300 a week… its obviously very difficult for them.

Campbell: So you oppose sweeping tax cuts across the board ?

Turia : Yes, we're quite specific about that.

Campbell: And for anyone living below a $25,000 poverty level, no tax?

Turia : No tax.

Campbell: Once those tax cuts are enacted, are you concerned they may limit the ability of future governments to redress the injustices that Maori currently experience?

Turia :That's the argument people use. But we consider that a Government that has taken in excess of eight billion dollars of taxpayers money…it makes you wonder how much is really enough.Our whole focus is on families. Our whole focus is on poverty. We have to have that focus, because that's where most of our people are. Now, if we are talking about tax cuts that are meaningful, then the Government should be removing GST on food. The Government should remove GST on all medical services. Those are the kind of tax cuts [we advocate]. I will admit though, we did support lowering the taxes for small business, to the 30 % rate.

Campbell: Is iwi development still the best model for Maori social and economic development?

Turia : We are worried, when we look at our families. Iwi development is important for the overall wellbeing of an iwi…for collective strength. However, we have to get resources as close as possible to where the greatest need is. And its not at the iwi level. It is at the whanau and hapu level, which is the collectives of whanau. That where we want to see the greater focus in future.

Campbell: So what are the best delivery mechanisms to reach that level?

Turia : People are learning how to establish themselves and be collective. There is marae. All marae have an administration group. There is no reason why we can't use marae to reach hapu and iwi. There is no reason why we can't use particular Maori organisations in urban settings to try and get the services, or the opportunities - or even the money - as close as possible to that level.

Campbell: Can you be truly Maori in your business processes and yet be as commercially cut throat as you need to be to be commercially successful ?

Turia : You can be both.

Campbell: So you see no conflict between the cultural values and practices that signify a business as truly Maori and thus worthy of allegiance, and the values needed to succeed in the global economy?

Turia : We are seeing it happen, Though, there was a conference held last year that brought young Maori business leaders together here in Wellington. And it was interesting that they were saying you can't claim to be a Maori business person, if all your practices are non-Maori.

Campbell:The Maori Business Aotearoa Scheme - using Maori trust funds - purports to be a source of scarce venture capital. What's the problem there ?

Turia : Well, the fact of the matter is that money has accrued from money held in trust for the beneficiaries. And what the Maori Trustee fails to do and fails miserably, is to make contact with those beneficiaries. And when beneficiaries do discover they have got money held there, they've got to go to court and they don't have the wherewithal to pay…It's a betrayal of principle, I would say…

Coalition Preferences

Campbell: Given its strong brand identity, doesn't the Maori Party have more to lose than most small parties, by joining or propping up a government led by National or Labour?

Turia : That's something we have to discuss with our constituency. All those arguments have been put to us, about being in the tent and part of decision making and therefore having more influence - and then of losing your identity, through being forced to keep your trap shut and not speak out on issues. Those are really important matters because we can't give away, we cannot lose, the independence of our voice.

Campbell: Exactly my point. Because of the Maori Party's direct and unique link to its constituency, doesn't it have more to lose ?

Turia : We have to be incredibly careful. Its not for me to say what decision the Maori Party will make. We've always said we go back to our constituency.

Campbell: So if say, the National Party said post election that it would continue with its plan to eventually abolish the Maori seats, but would agree in the meantime to repeal the Foreshore and Seabed legislation, would that be an acceptable trade-off?Turia : No.Campbell: So if say, the National Party said post election that it would continue with its plan to eventually abolish the Maori seats, but would agree in the meantime to repeal the Foreshore and Seabed legislation, would that be an acceptable trade-off? So National would have to move on both your key points?

Turia : Number one : we've always said the Foreshore and Seabed issue is the critical one. But you can't reach an agreement, you can't even sit down with anyone if you put on the table that the Maori seats stay, and they say `No."

Campbell: Because it would be a suicide pact?

Turia : Absolutely.

Campbell:But if the Foreshore and Seabed Act is of such prime importance to you, isn't there scope for saying other things are tradable?

Turia : Not the seats.

Campbell:Right now, we have record low numbers of Maori on the welfare rolls. Do you think those figures would have been achieved if National had been the Government during this decade?

Turia : Well, I mean I don't think that's for me to say. I wouldn't know.

Campbell: What I'm asking is, in your opinion, does it make any difference for Maori which major party is on the Treasury benches?

Turia : At the end of the day we see them as pretty much the same. Labour has come pretty much past the centre line from the left, and National has come back to the centre line, from the right. And they're both going for the same vote, so they're both trying to appease the same group of people. Except at both ends of the spectrum they also have these other groups. With National, you have the more wealthy, while with Labour, they've got the poorer people.

Campbell: I'm not doubting the similarities. I'm asking you whether in the welfare outcomes - when it comes to policies that impact on the poor - is it better for Maori to have a Labour led government or a National led government?

Turia : We've got 230,000 children in this country who are living in poverty. We have got families in a worse situation of poverty than they were in 1988. They've both been in government since then….And I would say this : its one thing to be working. But its another thing to be the working poor.

Campbell: Do you agree with the principle that a small party should tell voters beforehand what its coalition preference will be after the election?

Turia : It depends on your kaupapa. It depends on the philosophy that drives you. We have always said and will continue to say and continue to do…that our people will make that decision. We owe it to our people once elected to go back and put all the options before them. They will be the ones who will decide what we put on the table for the negotiables.Just for argument's sake, if Labour got the most seats again at the next election, and we went back to our people and said look they're not prepared to do the foreshore and sea-bed, they're not prepared to entrench the Maori seats..Do you think they're going to say to us hey, we think you should go with them? Even though pre-election, they might have said otherwise.

Campbell: So the prospect with the Maori Party is for a further round of consultation post election, to gain a fresh mandate for whatever options emerge in the negotiations?

Turia : Yes.

Campbell:The Greens want the Foreshore and Seabed law repealed too. Do you think it would be a good idea for both of you to agree on that beforehand as a common condition for either joining or propping up the next government?

Turia : That's not for me to say.. to be deciding what the Green Party should be deciding is their principal bottom line. They may not see it as their main bottom line. Let me put it this way - that's Act's position as well. I mean, how many ways do we go?

Campbell: Well, wouldn't it strengthen your hand then - to have a tacit agreement, if not a formal one that you will all jointly pursue?

Turia : Certainly it makes sense that we would do that. We are certainly talking across parties constantly, about common issues.

Campbell: People talk a lot about small party collaboration. Yet it only seems to be an information sharing exercise, rather than a policy sharing exercise .

Turia : Yes, it is information sharing. As you get further into this year, collaboration might become more policy based.

Work For the Dole

Campbell: Last year , Dr Pita Sharples called for a compulsory work scheme for dole recipients. Is that what the Maori Party will be calling for during this election campaign?

Turia : A compulsory work scheme for dole recipients, but not a work for the dole scheme. What he was talking about was a job creation scheme so that people who were on the benefit would go to work, and they wouldn't just receive the benefit. They would be paid an award rate for the work they were doing. He is not talking about work for the dole - which is what National is talking about.

Campbell: The key difference being that these would be award rate jobs? Won't that only be feasible while we're in a boom economy?

Turia : While there's a [labour] shortage. But they did [work schemes] while the economy was at its worst in the 80s. That's when they had all the job creation schemes. They had Work Skills, they had PEP, TEP…every P you could think of. And now they're out there smoking P, but with no work.

Campbell: Not a raging success, some of those…Turia : I don't agree. The contract work scheme was one of the best schemes we had around at that time. And what that did for gangs - and God help us if we talk about doing anything for gangs - at the time when gangs were actively involved in contract work, we had far, far less trouble with gangs. And it was a great opportunity for them to learn business skills, because they had to tender for those contracts…Also, when PEP and TEP schemes were around a lot of work got done that wasn't able to be afforded by councils.Campbell: So when you talk about the differences between what Dr Sharples and National are proposing on welfare, what parties do you mean when you talk about working together with other parties to break the welfare dependency cycle ?

Turia : I think Labour has been working hard to break the welfare dependency cycle. After all, they're trying to force every woman to go back to work. Both [major parties] have a clear policy of breaking welfare dependency. And of course we're interested in it, probably for very different reasons. Because when you look back at the history of benefits…You can go back to waiata that were written at the time when benefits were given to our people, where Tuini Ngawae made it clear that the impact on the spirit and the soul and the work ethic of the people, [then] our people were opposed to it.

Campbell:And Ngata ?

Campbell: Do you have any concerns about the compulsory aspect of this ? You're saying welfare is bad for Maori, so we have to break the cycle by introducing a compulsory element -

Turia : We're talking Maori unemployed. We're not talking about Maori women on benefits.

Campbell: But it is a toughlove attitude to them?

Turia : Absolutely. Because we can't see any good in it.

Campbell: If this emerged in the context of a National-led government - which has had a history of welfare bashing directed at Maori - wouldn't you risk being seen as the agents of an anti-Maori agenda?

Turia : Yes. I think there are huge risks. But if we are genuine about taking our people forward, setting our sights a lot higher than what we've got them now, and having an expectation that we can achieve them…(shrugs)

Welfare

Campbell: Would it be a good idea for the delivery of welfare to be privatised?

Turia : I'm not sure what `privatised'means, but I've heard John Tamihere talk about this in terms of west Auckland where Te Whanau Waipareira that he heads has talked about managing both the people and their benefits. A lot of people haven't liked it, because they see it as dis-empowering those families. But I know what he wants to do. And he wants to take those people forward ensuring that all the right things are being done for their families. And that. over a period of time, they take them towards being independent. I don't have any difficulty with that, if that's the purpose of it.

Campbell: Well, National has talked about the greater scope for charities and the voluntary sector in welfare delivery. Is this what the Maori Party also has in mind?

Turia : I haven't heard them talking about that. The only person I've heard give a concrete example of what he thinks needs to happen is John Tamihere.

Campbell: Private delivery can sound like we're back in the 19th century, in Victorian England, dispensing charity to the deserving poor. Would you think it advisable to limit any role for the private sector purely to the delivery of welfare, and not let the private or voluntary sector anywhere near the setting of entitlements ?

Turia : Even though we're happy for the Government to do that ?

Campbell: Because - hopefully - that will be done in a neutral fashion.

Turia : And who says we can't be neutral? I've never gone down the track of wanting to manage other peoples' money, or manage their benefits. But I remember at the Employment Summit, some of the proposals put up by a major Maori organisation was around that, of having all the benefits given to them. They would create the work. They would have those people working, and they would pay them.

Campbell: But if you hand it to the private sector - whether its brown or white - you will have people with a loaf of bread in one hand, and an agenda in the other.

Turia : But we hand it to the private sector now. Because we subsidise them hugely to take these people on jobs. So we already do it in one form or other, even though WINZ may be the ones holding onto the putea in the first instance. People are being manipulated now. Go into factories where people are being subsidised. Some employers take the subsidy for a year, take the people, then get rid of them and get another lot. Or take them on as casuals, so they never have to pay them holiday or sick pay.

Immigration:

Campbell:New Zealand is said to need more skilled migrants. How do the Maori party think the Government should go about attracting them?

Turia : Oh look, I'm sick of that argument. I'll be straight up with you. I was involved in employment right back in the 80s. That's the argument they were using then. Not enough skilled people. And they ran all these silly bloody training programmes around the country without thinking of giving those kids apprentice-able skills to fill the gap. Oh no, they weren't prepared to do that. But now they want to bring all these people in, because we don't have enough skilled people in this country.I might have bought it back then, but I don't buy it today. We have 50,000 people coming in here every year. There's only four million of us, total. Half of them through the skilled migrant category. And we still never have enough skilled people. So.. what's happening?

Campbell: So we don't need more migrants, or we should train more people already here?

Turia : We don't have enough doctors, but then we pay the doctors who are working long hours in the hospital $23 an hour, while we're also quite happy to pay $180 for a locum. So you get people falling out of the system, and setting up to be a locum here there and everywhere. Whereas, if they paid doctors properly in the hospital, you wouldn't need people running round being locums

Campbell: Are you saying we can meet our skills needs from inside New Zealand? Turia : Generally, generally that's true. There may well be areas where we do have specific skill shortages, and we should address that. But we should also be investing in many of those people who we have here in this country right now, and give them the opportunity to upskill themselves…Campbell: So the Maori Party is not opposed on principle to New Zealand seeking to attract more skilled migrants?

Turia : No.

Campbell: Maori are the tangata whenua. Even so, isn't there a sense in which we are all migrants, whether from the Pacific or from the world beyond?

Campbell: What's wrong with that argument?

Turia : Well, because I come from three iwi who believe that they've always been here.

Campbell: So the Hawaiki argument doesn't cut any ice?

Turia : The Hawaiki argument is OK for some, if you can tell me where it is. The bottom line is that the Maori people are the first people of this land. The Treaty of Waitangi established that status. And they signed the Treaty of Wajtangi allowing others to come. And they allowed a government to be established to take care of those people. What they didn't anticipate is being taken over. When you open your house to somebody, you don't expect to be relegated to the toilet.

Campbell: Do you and the Maori Party buy into the stance that Winston Peters and his party have towards Asian migration?

Turia : Absolutely I don't. When I look at Asian people and when I think about my own family, who have married Chinese, to me their values, their beliefs, their practices, are probably more like ours than when I stand alongside some Western people. So why would I resent them in any way, coming here? More than I would resent someone else?

Campbell: Because people would assume you would see them as a threat. The latest, in a line of threats, subsequent to the signing of the Treaty.

Turia : Well, we have gone through all the threats. We are still here. We have come out the other end. A lot of us have intermarried. And though people think I have never moved on, most of us have moved on. And we value the relationships that we have.I think that if we do nothing else while we are here, if we can bring about a sense of respect - between people - for difference, and for the different ways that people may view the world, and if that can be encapsulated in the way we put together legislation….then I'll be a happy person.I don't want anything more than that. Its that families be able to take care of themselves, to take care of the ones they love, and that they have sufficient income to be able to live. And that people just learn… to get on with one another. That's really important for this country, as we go forward.

Govt to talk to Treasury before finalising tax cuts

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Government will decide the size and timing of personal tax cuts at the end of next week, once it has received new forecasts from the Treasury.

The forecasts are likely to confirm the economy is slowing more rapidly than anticipated, which means the Government's forecast tax income will also be lower than expected.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen says the Cabinet has agreed on how to cut taxes, but will not decide until next week how big the cuts should be or when they will come into effect.

Dr Cullen says the Government is having to take into account changing economic fortunes. He says those families already receiving tax relief through the Working for Families package will also benefit from across-the-board tax cuts.

National's leader John Key says the party will not release its tax policy until well after the Budget, but he expects to propose a more substantive package.

NZ First chases senior vote

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: New Zealand First is reaching out to the constituency that could decide its fate in this year's election - trumpeting a Budget move to give senior citizens free off-peak public transport and pledging to further raise superannuation payments.

Leader Winston Peters made his push for the senior vote in a speech to Grey Power's annual meeting in Christchurch yesterday, shortly before departing for Europe in his role as Foreign Minister.

Mr Peters revealed next month's Budget would contain funding to ensure holders of the SuperGold discount card he launched last year would be able to travel free on buses, trains and ferries at off-peak times.

Little detail is available yet on how the system will work.

Officials are still working through that and more information appears likely to come in the May 22 Budget.

However, the cost to the Government of the free off-peak transport is understood to be around $18 million a year and it is intended to be available nationwide.

The SuperGold card drew some criticism when it was launched for offering little in the way of useful discounts for senior citizens, but Mr Peters defended it yesterday and said he was still working to try to secure electricity rebates for card holders.

"It is only the beginning, as we said at the launch," he said.

"And we will keep working on this initiative, despite the knockers, because it is right to give something back."

Auckland Regional Council chairman Mike Lee described the idea of free public transport for senior citizens as "laudable", but said he did not want to say too much more until he saw details of how it would work.

Mr Lee said the first he knew of the announcement was a very late tip that Mr Peters was going to say something about public transport.

Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons said the idea was a good one. But "we have to invest in much more frequent, more reliable and more comfortable services if a lot of older people are going to be able to use it".

Outside the public transport move, Mr Peters also said yesterday that he would continue to try to get superannuation raised towards New Zealand First's target of 72.5 per cent of the net average wage in any post-election negotiations.

Payments are now at a level of 66 per cent after Mr Peters secured a rise from around 63 per cent as part of his confidence and money supply agreement with Labour in 2005.

Should New Zealand First reappear in Parliament after this year's election, Mr Peters made it clear he would be pushing for his next agreement to get the superannuation level up to "at least 68 per cent" of the net average wage.

 

WINSTON'S PITCH TO THE AGED

• Free off-peak public transport on buses, ferries and trains.
  
• A funding boost for hearing aids in the Budget.
  
• A push to get superannuation up to at least 68 per cent of the net average wage, from the current 66 per cent. Pledge to make this a central part of any future NZ First confidence and money supply agreement.

National’s $1.5 billion broadband plan

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: National leader John Key says the party will invest $1.5 billion in broadband services over six years if elected to government.

Mr Key told the Wellington Chamber of Commerce that investment was needed to increase economic growth and lift incomes.

Mr Key says National wants to see a fibre-optic connection to almost every home.

The initial goal would be the introduction of fibre-optic cabling to 75% of households, with priority given to business in the first six years.

Mr Key, who acknowledges that private operators have been reluctant to invest in infrastructure, says the plan does not let Telecom and its competitors off the hook. Investment commitments already made must be honoured, he says.

Mr Key says deputy leader Bill English is "highly supportive" of the plan, despite his comments last year that he did not support such a move because it risked crowding out private sector investment.

Mr English went on to say that National would regard such investment as a "last-ditch measure".

Mr Key says Mr English is now fully on board.

The Government describes the plan as "back to the future", saying it will result in Telecom once again having a monopoly.

Communications Minister David Cunliffe says it would be to the detriment of broadband consumers, but National says it would work with all market players to ensure that does not happen, and would use regulation if necessary.

Labour president unlikely to be censured over denial

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The Labour party president looks set to escape censure despite being caught misleading the media.

Mike Williams was asked on TVNZ's Agenda programme about his response to a suggestion from the floor at Labour's Congress earlier this month, that Government pamphlets should be used during electioneering.

He denied saying at the time that using the leaflets would be "a damn good idea".

But TVNZ last night broadcast an audio recording showing Mr Williams used those exact words.

A spokesperson for the Prime Minister says the comment was an off-the-cuff response to an off-the-cuff suggestion, and she has dealt with the matter decisively by saying the use of the leaflets would not happen.

Radio New Zealand's political staff say Labour is blaming the row on a combination of confusion and looseness, but there is no expectation that Mr Williams will face censure.

Mike Williams has been unavailable for comment.

Clark, Labour have comeback in 3 News poll

3 NEWS: The latest 3 News poll provides some welcome relief after months of pain for Prime Minister Helen Clark - her Labour party has made some significant ground on the National Party.

John Key and his party can still govern, but need some help from their friends.

The poll also shows a massive turnaround in an area Clark holds dear to her heart.

John Key reacted this week to what he called "personal attacks" Labour had made against him. To that the Prime Minister indicated Key should just harden up, and the attacks on Key for being a vacuous, empty space appear to be working.

In the latest 3 News poll, National drops 3 to 48, Labour goes up 3 to 38.

The Greens subside slightly to 5.8, Winston Peters' New Zealand First is 3.4, up a nudge but clearly his attacks on immigrants and free trade deals appear to have failed to capture voter's imaginations.

The Maori party is up to 2.9, Act and United Future barely register.

Take those results into Parliament and despite National's 10 point lead - it needs two coalition partners Act and United Future and only just governs with 62 seats.

Labour, the Greens, the Maori party and Jim Anderton's Progressive make 60 - it shows MMP very much favours Labour, Clark and her friends.

And fresh from her China trip, and her party's attacks on John Key - Clark regains her prized preferred Prime Minister trophy after she has been trailing Key for exactly a year.

Clark leaps 4 to 32 and Key slumps 6 to 29 - Winston Peters is up one.

And despite the stolen clichés voters think Clark is performing better than she has for two years – she is up to 62, and down amongst those who think she is doing poorly.

Key's at times muddling leadership has him drop to 52 among those who think he is doing well, and up 4 among those who think he is doing poorly.

So there is a lesson in this for the National Party, it needs to take some positions on policy – that is different to Labour.

It needs to stand for something because the latest poll shows that Helen Clark is not dead yet - in fact the results give her a new spring to her step as she fights to make sure this is not her last dance.

Colmar Brunton Poll April 2008

Results from Colmar Brunton Poll April 2008.

Greens losing support according to poll

ONE NEWS: The latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll sees Labour trailing well behind National and the results suggest the governing party could also lose a key ally.

Labour remains stable on 35% support, but the National Party has extended its support from 50% in the February poll to 54% this time around.

While Labour has stared down the barrel of a nine point deficit many times over the last year, they have always done so with strong support for key ally, the Green Party.

But this poll has seen a dramatic change in fortune for the Greens.

Support for the party, which has sat between 5% and 7% since August last year, has halved to 3.7%. Those figures would see the Greens out of parliament and Labour struggling to stitch together a coalition.

Of the remaining smaller parties the Maori Party is polling at 3.2%, NZ First at 1.5% and Act at 1.1% support.

In the preferred Prime Minister stakes John Key is still the top choice down one point this month to 35% support. Helen Clark is also down, by two points to 29%. Winston Peters is also still hanging around with 4% support.

The latest poll also sees voters getting increasingly pessimistic about the economy, with 57% of those polled expecting the economy to worsen in the next 12 months.

The ONE News Colmar Brunton poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

THE RESULTS

Party Vote

Poll conducted evenings on 12-17 April 2008:

National - 54%

Labour - 35%

Green Party -3.7%

NZ First -1.5%

ACT NZ - 1.1%

Preferred PM

John Key - 35%

Helen Clark - 29%

Winston Peters - 4%

Economic Outlook

"And do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a worse state?"

Better - 23%

Same - 20%

Worse - 57%

Clark pulls plug on leaflets plan

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: Prime Minister Helen Clark has put the kybosh on Labour Party activists distributing pamphlets from Government departments for the likes of KiwiSaver and Working for Families.

And she has publicly admonished her party president for backing it.

"This was a not-so-bright idea which came off the floor at a [Labour congress] workshop, I understand," Helen Clark said yesterday.

"The not-so-bright idea has been thrown off the ninth floor of the Beehive.

"I have said that under no circumstances should canvassers be handing out Government leaflets. They are not campaign material."

The idea was suggested in a campaign strategy workshop run by party president Mike Williams at the Labour congress in Wellington.

It was recorded in detailed notes taken during the session, and later obtained by the Herald.

The notes included the advice, "Hand out pamphlets from Winz and IRD such as Working for Families, KiwiSaver, and say to people National voted against this."

One News claimed last night that Mr Williams endorsed it in the workshop as a "damned good idea".

But Helen Clark said it had shown "poor judgment because it was not campaign material".

"As Mike Williams said in his speech on Friday night, no one dies wondering what I think about things, and he was the beneficiary of such advice again this morning."

Asked if Mr Williams had become a liability, she said: "He is one of my oldest friends and a very diligent worker for the party, but he doesn't always get things right."

Mr Williams offered his resignation this year amid negative publicity over disclosure of an interest-free loan to the party by expatriate business magnate Owen Glenn.

Helen Clark said she had kept informational brochures in her office for constituents since she had been in Parliament, no matter what Government was in power, and all MPs should do the same.

The idea of dishing out departmental literature while campaigning was attacked by National as an example of Labour's strategy to shut down critics through the Electoral Finance Act and use the resources of the Government to publicise its own flagship policies.

NZ First says NZ First would make all National MPs sign election deal

NEW ZEALAND HERALD: New Zealand First would make every single National MP sign up to any agreement it reached with National after the election, NZ First leader Winston Peters said today.

"We could work with either Helen Clark or John Key," Mr Peters said.

"But we do have a proviso about National because of our past experience.

"Like all New Zealanders we want to know exactly where National stands on all the main issues, long before the election campaign.

"And before we could go with National, we would make every single MP in the National caucus sign up to whatever agreement was reached.

"That includes all the right-wingers and ACT look-a-likes that lurk in the shadows," Mr Peters said.

The former National-NZ First coalition fell apart in 1998 when NZ First left Cabinet and prime minister Jenny Shipley sacked Mr Peters. National remained in government when former NZ First MPs, who had split from the party, formed Mauri Pacific and helped prop up the National Government.

Mr Peters today said in speech to the Rotary Club at Taupo that there were some in Labour who had been hesitant at working with NZ First who had come to see the value of an alternative viewpoint.

Some probably still harboured reservations, he said.

"But they have learnt how MMP works and the real question which remains is, has National?"

Most politicians did get MMP and understood its potential, he said.

That was why in the same week both Prime Minister Helen Clark and National leader John Key supported him as foreign minister, despite having different views.

"They understand, like we do in New Zealand First, that MMP means you won't agree on everything but that is not the end of the political world."

But the critical point was that these differences did not prevent parties from working constructively together on issues they agreed on.

Mr Peters said NZ First's agreement on confidence and supply with Labour "gives us room to disagree".

"There is no threat of instability."

While NZ First did not always agree with the Government, the Government "stands firm".

Mr Peters also said the media still seemed to see the world through first-past-the-post glasses and could not see how people with differing views could work together for the good of the country.

"Apparently there was a constitutional crisis in New Zealand last week but fortunately it was confined to a word processor in the parliamentary press gallery."

Mr Peters was referring to reports about his party's stance in opposing the free trade deal with China and his comments that he would say New Zealand could have done better if asked about the trade deal while on overseas business as foreign minister.

He later gave an assurance to the prime minister that he would not criticise the deal while overseas on ministerial duties.

A great new feature to NZ Votes 08

NZ VOTES 08: This blog has just introduced a new feature to its website. Users are now able to vote in a new poll that has been posted to the right of the screen.

Anyone can vote. The poll will remain on the page until Election Day.

Make your views count with the new poll!

NZ Votes hopes to roll out more features to its website in the near future so watch this space!

Key says the economy main election issue

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: State asset sales will not be a defining issue during this year's election because there will not be any, says the National Party.

Leader John Key has ruled out any full or partial sale of state-owned enterprises or Crown-owned companies in the party's first three years if it wins the election.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Helen Clark told Labour Party supporters that asset sales would be "a defining issue".

Mr Key says the economy rather than asset sales will be the critical question of the election, given that interest rates have doubled under the Labour government.

Miss Clark says it is difficult to work out exactly what Mr Key means by his asset sale statement.

She says it is not clear whether there is no long-term plan, no preliminary work to be done, or whether National will spend a term preparing to sell assets in the future.

But Mr Key says there are no plans for preparatory work on asset sales during a first term. He says National will retain ownership of Toll's rail services if the Government buys them before the election.

But if the deal is not concluded, National would not buy the services.

 

Listen to interviews from Radio New Zealand's Morning Report programme.

National’s decision on bulk funding issue pleases teacher unions

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party's decision not to reintroduce the controversial bulk funding of teachers salaries is being welcomed by organisations representing principals and teachers.

Party leader John Key says it is unlikely bulk funding will be part of its programme for this year's election.

Mr Key says the issue of bulk funding is a 1990s argument, and National wants to take a 21st century perspective.

Three years ago the party had called bulk funding the first step towards providing the flexible education system that it said parents wanted.

The party's current education spokesperson Anne Tolley says National is now looking at other ways to provide flexibility.

The teacher unions and the Secondary Principals Council say they are pleased and relieved bulk funding is off the table.

National will not sell off assets in first term

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: The National Party says it will not sell any state-owned enterprises or Crown-owned companies in its first term, if it wins the next election.

National's leader John Key made the announcement a day after Prime Minister Helen Clark told Labour supporters that asset sales is a defining issue.

National has previously talked about the possibility of selling partial stakes in some state assets.

But Mr Key says the sale of state assets is not necessary, and is ruling out total or partial sell-offs in a first term of Government.

He says New Zealand does not have a debt problem, it has a growth problem.

Mr Key says he is not interested in being distracted by tired old debates that achieve nothing, and there are more important areas for National to direct its energies toward.

Miss Clark says National's position is laughable, and it would spend a first term working on preparing assets for sale, then get down to business in a second term.

Airport a defining issue - PM

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Labour leader Helen Clark told the party's Congress on Saturday the decision to turn down a foreign bid for a stake in Auckland International Airport is a "defining issue".

Miss Clark said Labour is campaigning strongly on New Zealand being able to control its own destiny.

"Auckland International Airport is a huge iconic strategic asset for New Zealand. It has to be treated in that way," she said.

Helen Clark told the audience Labour cannot afford to rest on its laurels, and will be rolling out more major policy as the year progresses.

She highlighted the almost 30-year low in unemployment, and said Labour had already delivered big new ideas this year, with the Schools Plus proposal for compulsory education to 18 years old, and a research fund for the food and pastoral sectors.

Helen Clark labelled the National Party's brand "utterly vacuous".

Cullen attacks National at the Labour congress

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Labour's deputy leader has ended the party's election year Congress with a stinging attack on the National Party, and a warning that Labour has a steep mountain to climb.

Michael Cullen has delivered his traditional closing speech in front of about 600 party members.

He said Labour faces an Opposition that is desperate for power, enormously well financed and willing to make any promise, or break any principle, to get into power.

And Dr Cullen says National leader John Key tells people what he thinks they want to know.

He says winning a fourth term is a big ask, and Labour must make sure people understand the difference between it and National.

Labour Party wants to target non-voters

RADIO NEW ZEALAND: Targeting the 200,000 people who did not vote at the last election is a key part of Labour's strategy this year, party president Mike Williams says.

The Labour Party is trying to secure a rare fourth term in power.

About 500 party faithful will attend the three-day Congress in Wellington from Friday, which will focus on campaign strategy and planning.

Mr Williams says he believes Labour managed to get 100,000 extra voters to the polls in 2005.

He says the Labour Party is in good health and has just one electorate candidate left to select, in Waikato.

On average, Labour has now trailed the National Party by 10% or more in the polls for the past year.

However, Radio New Zealand political staff say Labour believes it can close that gap by rolling out a substantial policy programme, and contrasting Helen Clark's leadership experience with that of John Key.

Miss Clark will give her keynote speech on Saturday, fresh from the signing of the historic Free Trade Agreement with China in Beijing this week.

Government wants to improve child support system

NZPA: The Government has admitted inconsistencies with the system for child support payments and says it hopes to come up with a new formula next year.

Revenue Minister Peter Dunne said many liable parents considered the current assessment of child support to be "unfair" and it was timely to reassess the formula, he said.

The system needed to be more responsive to the complexities of shared care, the income levels of both parents and the costs of raising children.

"These are the most commonly identified areas of concern of the many people who write to me and to other MPs about their child support problems," he said in a statement today.

The standard formula for assessing the amount of child support payable by a liable parent was straight-forward and in most cases provided certainty for both parents, he said.

"However, it is based solely on the economic circumstances of the liable parent and his or her ability to provide financial support for the child involved.

"It does not take into account the income of the principal carer of the child.

"Nor does the formula take into account all the parental circumstances surrounding the aged care of children and the associated costs of raising them, and at different ages."

Many liable parents said they incurred considerable costs in providing for their children during often significant periods of contact, but those costs were not recognised under the current formula.

"Some say those costs affect their ability to make the child support payments required of them, placing strain on other financial commitments.

"Ultimately, however, both parents are responsible for supporting their children and it is the child's interests that must predominate."

Mr Dunne said he had asked officials to examine options for a better formula.

Under the current scheme, to share care "substantially equally" a liable parent must care for a child for at least 40 per cent of nights - or if less, prove that he or she meets the shared care test in other specified ways.

That was one of the most contentious features of the scheme, Mr Dunne said.

To make things easier, the wording of the definition could be changed so that parents who do not meet the 40 per cent of nights test but undertake significant care on a daily basis can have the associated costs recognised.

That is one option. Another is to reduced the shared care threshold from 40 per cent of nights, allowing a greater number of liable parents to benefit and pay less in child support.

"A third and more fundamental option than changing the shared care provisions is to adopt an approach that takes account of both parents' income as well as the costs of raising children.

"Such an approach has recently been adopted in Australia and is in use in Norway and part of the United States."

Mr Dunne said he hoped by next year the Government would be able to put forward some soundly based proposals for improving the system.

Watchdog should pursue election law breaches - Nats

NZPA: The National Party has accused the Electoral Commission of sitting on its hands over the Electoral Finance Act, saying it needs to pursue breaches more vigorously.

The commission last week found Labour to be the first political party to have breached the controversial act, by failing to carry proper party authorisation on its taxpayer-funded booklet titled We're Making a Difference.

The National Party had highlighted the booklet in Parliament, but did not complain or forward the material to the commission.

The commission investigated after the New Zealand Herald newspaper forwarded it along with a range of other party literature.

National's deputy leader Bill English today said the commission should investigate any potential breaches it was made aware of and should source the offending material itself, rather than waiting for someone else to do so.

He said National had highlighted a Green Party billboard in Wellington's Ngaio Gorge and a New Zealand First billboard in Tauranga which did not have correct authorisations, but it appeared nothing was being done about them.

That was despite the commission giving the impression it would investigate issues proactively, by making statements to the media about hiring a media monitoring company to keep tabs on parties' activities and saying it was investigating a Labour campaign song CD despite no complaint being made.

National is understood to have held off lodging complaints as it believed the commission would investigate them itself.

Dr Catt today confirmed the commission was not currently investigating the billboards.

She said if National had a problem with an item it should forward material to the commission to investigate.

A complaint was not necessarily needed, but the offending material was.

"In order for us to act on something we need some information that it was published and we need a copy of it," Dr Catt said.

"We'd need some information on it and I'm definitely not hopping on a plane to Tauranga to go and see it."

Dr Catt said the commission had a copy of the Labour campaign song CD – allowing it to investigate it.

However it was waiting to see what law changes – proposed by Mr English – might be made in the near future in relation to authorisations and whether they would be retrospective.

But a National Party spokesman said even if the amendments were accepted, the law change would not be retrospective.

Dr Catt has said the commission is considering whether a Labour Party balloon constitutes election advertising, and is seeking opinions on an ACT Party booklet, distributed to journalists at a party conference, could be deemed advertising.

Both items were forwarded to it by the Herald.

Labour breaches Electoral Finance Act

ONE NEWS: Labour has been the first to break its own electoral finance law, just months after the law has come into effect.

The Electoral Commission has ruled a Labour Party pamphlet is illegal, but they will not have to face up to the police and have been given a warning.

The Electoral Finance Act was meant to stop big money buying elections, but it hasn't stopped Labour from using tax payer money to promote itself.

"At the very first hurdle, the Labour Party having passed the law, have gone out and deliberately broken the law," says John Key.

The pamphlets broke the Electoral Finance Act because they do not have the address of the party secretary on them, which is required under the law.

Labour says the pamphlets were printed and mostly distributed before the new law came into effect and some leftovers were then mistakenly handed out.

"It was a mistake but then I suppose you could say that the handing out of Mr Key's DVD was a mistake because it was printed last year but distributed this year, has no authorisation, doesn't fit within the electoral finance act," says Justice Minister Annette King.

Under that Act, the incident could have been referred to the police, but the Electoral Commission has let Labour off with a warning saying the breach was considered inconsequential.

But the National Party has asked why the Police considered it inconsequential.

"Does she think that spending hundreds of thousands of dollars publishing a booklet designed to get people to vote for the Labour Party is inconsequential or is it only inconsequential when Labour is spending the money?" asked Bill English in Parliament.

In a bizarre twist the Justice Minister's office says it handing out just one pamphlet could have breached the Electoral Finance Act.

Critics say that just goes to show how crazy the law is.

Bill Hodge, a constitutional lawyer and a critic of the Electoral Finance Act says this is one of the unforeseen consequences of the law.

He says there is now considerable uncertainty about the legality of that type of electoral expense and many others.

NZ First divided over Asian immigrants

ONE NEWS: There is division over Asian immigration within the political party that has put it back up for debate.

Peter Brown's views have been labelled racist and despicable and one of his colleagues in New Zealand First is even distancing himself from the deputy leader.

Brown's take on NZ's growing Asian population was designed to spark reaction but List MP Dail Jones appeared wary over his remarks, saying in response to a question about Asian immigration that he had he had "no problem with the situation in New Zealand".

On Wednesday Brown said that if the country is flooded with different cultures and different attitudes "they will go and live in their own little communities and the country will suffer for it".

Some have labelled the comment racist but the party's leader says it is policy.

"A founding principle of New Zealand First was the question of immigration - that it should be economically and socially targeted in the interests of this nation," Winston Peters says.

Fuelling the nation's immigration debate has won the party support in previous elections but there is little political support this time round.

United Future leader Peter Dunne says it's despicable.

"It's election year, it's on cue, it's racist," says Dunne.

Green Party MP Keith Locke says the country must reject Brown's "white supremacist policy of treating European culture as superior to that of other nations".

National MP Tau Henare has linked Brown's comments to the coming election and says he finds them offensive.

"I used to be a member of New Zealand First and I don't want any part of it," Henare says.

Sir Roger returns to haunt – Richard Long

THE DOMINION POST: The return of Roger Douglas. You have to admit to a touch of nostalgia.

 

The architect of the 1980s reforms suddenly looms, Dracula-like, from what everyone assumed was a retirement grave and starts speculating about a Cabinet position, privatisation and a flat tax.

 

It's the best thing Labour have had going for them for a long time.

 

Sir Roger was once one of theirs. But they have now disowned him and demonised him - while keeping most of his reforms - and like to use him to frighten the electorate, like an evil character from the Brothers Grimm.

 

He's lurking in the woods again, Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen warns.

 

He could get loose if National and ACT get elected. But National leader John Key settled that in emphatic terms. Not on his watch, he said.

 

No position in a National Cabinet, no hidden agenda. He even allowed himself to get mildly annoyed - clever politics that.

 

He was buggered if he was going to allow National's policies to be subverted by some right-wing crusade. ACT have always had the subtlety of a sledgehammer. Zealots cannot comprehend that politics is the art of the possible.

 

They were advised by a hot-shot Australian strategist before the 2005 election that as National had stolen most of their voters they needed to shake them loose if they were to improve.

 

Accordingly they sandbagged National at strategic moments. Never mind the effects this would have on the chances of a centreright government: they were dealing with survival.

 

The then National leader, Don Brash, was powerless to deal with this as he was on record as backing ACT economic policies and had even been described by ACT as its tenth MP.

 

Mr Key has none of this baggage and is a genuine centrist. In some countries Sir Roger would have settled into a revered position as the saviour of an economy which was on the rocks and was operating, as Labour leader David Lange noted at the time, like a Polish shipyard.

 

A sheep retention scheme subsidy had produced unmarketable mutton which was ground up and dumped at sea. The Railways were instructed to absorb excess staff to keep unemployment down.

 

The Post and Telegraph Office had a staff the size of a small New Zealand city.

 

Each election year new Post Office branches would sprout in marginal electorates for political reasons, not business demand. In one jump we went from the most regulated economy outside the eastern bloc, to one of the most free.

 

Top income tax rates were slashed from 66 to 33 cents. There is an echo of the Douglas reforms now in Britain, where the Labour Government is in turmoil over the need to close uneconomic post office branches.

 

Twenty years ago Douglas lieutenant Richard Prebble dealt with that problem here. An official observed to Mr Prebble that he would not be able to close all 432 uneconomic branches at once.

 

"Just give me the list, I'll deal with the politics," Mr Prebble famously responded - and promptly closed the lot.

 

As for Sir Roger's proposed flat tax, it is worth recalling that the Labour Cabinet then was unanimously in favour of the radical proposal till Lange took fright and unilaterally abandoned the measure while Sir Roger was overseas.

 

Sir Roger returned to fight for the tax but basically lost the battle on the front page of this newspaper, which published in great detail the findings of an official committee investigation into the effects of such a tax.

 

There were doubts, among other things, whether income maintenance proposals for lower wage earners would work as intended. The report was never intended to see the light of day, but some democratic soul wrapped it in brown paper and sent it to me, to Sir Roger's great chagrin.

 

And that device, I can't help but muse, is a whole lot better than whistleblowing. The whistle-blower in the Hawke's Bay District Health Board saga got restructured out of a job.

 

The Environment staffer who blew the whistle in the Madeleine Setchell case suffered much personal abuse.

 

A whole lot better, it seems to me, to wrap the stuff in brown paper and send it to your favourite reporter. Mind you, I get wistful whenever I think about the 23-cent flat tax that could have been - and the fillip that would have brought the economy.

Climate change shaky for National MPs

ONE NEWS: The heat was on the National Party on Tuesday after senior party figures said they appeared to doubt that climate change exists at all.

Those were their views even though ice caps are melting worldwide and world leaders are trying to find a solution to what many believe is the biggest problem facing the planet, with scientists predicting dire consequences if no action is taken.

Several sources approached ONE News saying both Lockwood Smith and Maurice Williamson told audiences in the last week they did not believe in global warming.

But both Smith and Williamson have refused to confirm the statements and both say they support the National Party's position on global warming when questioned, but have refused to comment on their personal views regarding global warming and climate change.

Transport accounts for 19% of New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions and Maurice Williamson also happens to be National's Transport spokesman.

Michael Cullen says it's a credibility issue for National.

"It's a little bit silly I think for opposition spokespeople in New Zealand to decide that they know better than the vast overwhelming consensus of international scientists," says Cullen.

National's potential coalition partner, ACT, is also sceptical.

Rodney Hide has said that the climate change scenario is overblown.

"The emissions trading scheme that is now before parliament is going to cost us billions of dollars," says Hide.

Tuesday's revelations may cost National some political capital, especially given John Key is only a recent convert to climate change.

But when asked, Key says he was relaxed, saying the party members had a range of views on various subjects and had the right to hold them, but most important was that in the end they stuck to party policy, whatever their personal views.