Fairfax Media-Nielsen Poll Results

THE DOMINION POST: A staggering one in 10 voters are considering a move to Australia as today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll shows Labour struggling to turn around a mood for change.

The The Dominion Post poll puts National 18 points ahead of Labour - a five-point narrowing of the gap on the last Fairfax poll, in February, but still enough for National, on 52 per cent, to govern alone.

A bigger blow for the Government, however, may be the poll's finding that voters are losing faith in Labour as a safe pair of hands, as it faces the fallout from rising food, petrol and power prices against a backdrop of increased mortgage rates, a housing slump and high-profile job layoffs blamed on the high Kiwi dollar.

The Government is dangling tax cuts in next month's Budget as relief for householders - and Finance Minister Michael Cullen has confirmed there will be legislation on Budget night to "lock in" tax cuts before the election - even if they do not come into effect till next year.

But confidence in the economy could prove equally decisive.

Just 33 per cent of voters questioned for today's poll trusted Labour to manage the economy best, compared with 46 per cent who rated National a safer pair of hands.

That may be having an impact on how people feel about their prospects in New Zealand, with one in 10 respondents confirming they are considering a move to Australia in the next 12 months. The finding suggests that National's plan to campaign on narrowing the wage gap with Australia will strike a chord.

In the past year a net 29,900 crossed the Tasman, but on today's poll figures, that number is set to jump.

Dr Cullen said it was no surprise that people were worried about the economy as rising prices coincided with fears about job security for the first time "in a long time".

He was also unsurprised by the high numbers looking at Australia as an alternative, "given the enormous publicity that's been given to migration to Australia".

But he cautioned against an overly optimistic view of prospects there. "Of course confidence has collapsed in Australia as well. I think people better look fairly carefully.

"And inflation is higher in Australia than it is in New Zealand. I think there's still the picture the Australian economy is booming along, whereas they're running into some headwind as well."

Today's poll records a three-point drop for National on the February poll, while Labour is on 34, up two.

National leader John Key remains preferred prime minister on 42 per cent. But Prime Minister Helen Clark has clawed back some support, rising to 33 per cent and narrowing the gap from 15 points to 9.

The Greens were the only other party to break the 5 per cent threshold, with 6 per cent support.

The poll questioned 1068 people f between April 9 and April 22. It has a margin of error of about 3 per cent.