Fairfax/Nielson Poll: July 2008

DOMINION POST/STUFF.CO.NZ: Labour  has been thrown a lifeline by today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll showing the gap with National has closed to its narrowest since last year.

Though National would comfortably govern alone on today's poll results, Labour has clawed its way back from a 24-point deficit last month to 16 points today.

That may not be enough to turn around perceptions that the election is a foregone conclusion, but it has arrested a trend in which Labour's support fell below 30 per cent in the same poll last month, a result that shocked many Labour foot soldiers.

Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Labour's recovery to 35 per cent would be a morale boost.

"I've been saying to people for a long time the feeling in the heartland was nothing like 29 or 30 per cent ... our people will be very motivated by these results."

Labour had been warned that its attacks on National leader John Key's credibility, including a holding of Tranz Rail shares and policies such as ACC, would backfire.

But today's poll shows the gap between Mr Key and Miss Clark as preferred prime minister narrowing to seven points, the closest since November, suggesting the attacks are having an effect.

And it reveals a lot of voters - 28 per cent - remain undecided about whom they would prefer as prime minister.

While Mr Key is seen as a safer pair of hands to manage the economy through a downturn, most rate Miss Clark more highly as a "strong" and "capable" leader whom they would trust in a crisis.

Today's results are unlikely to spook National, but they will give it a jolt as it begins to roll out policy and readies itself for government.

Mr Key said the poll showed National was still favoured by one in two voters but National would have to work hard to retain their support.

Though publicly National won't read too much into polls that consistently give it an election-winning lead, plans for its first 100 days in office are starting to take shape behind the scenes.

Insiders have started drafting legislation to implement core promises on law and order and the Resource Management Act.

National seems certain, meanwhile, to mark symbolically the "changing of the guard", should it win the election, by mirroring Labour's 1999 Christmas Eve legislation raising the top rate of tax to 39c.

Legislation is likely to be rushed through before Christmas implementing tax cuts.

National's front bench is also starting to take shape. Along with Mr Key, deputy Bill English and No3 Gerry Brownlee, Simon Power, Nick Smith, Tony Ryall, Judith Collins, Anne Tolley and David Carter are expected to retain their spots.

But Pakuranga MP Maurice Williamson could fall back to make way for fresh blood - either former trade negotiator Tim Groser or Wellington lawyer Chris Finlayson.

The poll questioned 1049 people between July 9 and July 15 and had a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.