STUFF.CO.NZ: While gamblers predict John Key is three times more likely than Helen Clark to be next prime minister, polling shows National has cause to be nervous.
Online prediction market iPredict has the probability of John Key being next prime minister at 72.45 percent, with Miss Clark rated a 27.55 percent chance.
But the NZPA rolling poll -- the average of the last six published polls -- shows National support slowly ebbing away over the past four weeks.
On August 27, National was polling well enough to win 64 seats in Parliament -- enough to govern alone, if an election was held then.
Today, National was down to 62 seats and would need help from ACT to eke out a majority in the House.
With more than six weeks and a potentially uncomfortable campaign until election day on November 8, any continuation of that trend may see National needing more than just ACT to form a government.
On current polling Labour would win 45 seats, and its allies the Greens seven, and the Progressive Party one -- nine seats fewer than the National-ACT bloc.
The NZPA poll allocated the Maori Party six seats -- based on current polls in the Maori seats -- and United Future just one.
The greatest fear for National would be a Phoenix-like rising from the dead by New Zealand First, which would be eliminated from Parliament on current polling.
Mr Key has ruled out working with NZ First after the election, a move which might bite him if voters decide NZ First leader Winston Peters has been unfairly treated over the donation scandal.
NZ First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 percent of votes cast to return to Parliament.
It is at 2.9 percent and since then Mr Peters has been censured in Parliament over the Owen Glenn donation.
If consummate political survivor Mr Peters engineers a miracle and makes it back to Parliament, Labour might just be able to cobble together an unwieldy majority.
Any further erosion of the National vote would further raise that possibility.
The Greens, on 5.9 percent, are the only minor party above the 5 percent threshold that has to be crossed for a party to hold seats without winning an electorate.
NZPA rolling poll (with seats in brackets)*
Sept 24 Sept 10 Aug 27 Labour 36.1 (45) 36.2 (46) 34.4 (43) National 49.2 (62) 49.3 (62) 50.7 (64) NZ First 2.9 (0) 3.3 (0) 4.0 (0) ACT 1.7 (2) 1.5 (2) 1.3 (2) Greens 5.9 (7) 5.7 (7) 5.8 (7) United Future 0.4 (1) 0.3 (1) 0.4 (1) Maori Party 2.5 (6) 2.6 (6) 2.5 (6) Progressives 0.0 (1) 0.0 (1) 0.0 (1)
* assumes Maori Party win six electorate seats; ACT hold Epsom; United Future hold Ohariu Belmont; Progressives hold Wigram; New Zealand First lose Tauranga -- all outcomes supported by current polling.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment