ONE NEWS: The latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll shows National leader John Key with enough points to head New Zealand's next government, but only just.
The poll, released just two days out from the election, shows the National and Labour blocs evenly matched, with a strong chance of the Maori Party playing a critical role.
On the all important party vote, National is steady on 47%. Labour is holding firm too, but is 12 points behind on 35%.
The Greens have continued their strong run, up one point to 9% while Act has also had a late burst, now up to 2.5%.
New Zealand First looks dead in the water at 2.4%, and the party vote for the Maori Party has fallen away to 1.3%.
With a 122 seat parliament, (needing 62 seats to get a majority), who could form a government on these latest poll results?
Labour would have 43 seats, the Greens are on Labour's side with 12, the Progressives have one seat, but even if you add in the Maori Party's probable four seats, Clark can only muster 60 seats - two seats short of the majority which is required to govern.
The National Party would have 58 seats and if you add in three from Act and one from United Future, then National gets a majority with 62 seats.
If they are able to convince the Maori Party to play ball, it becomes more comfortable with 66 seats.
The poll sampled 1,000 people and has a margin of error of 3.1%.
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