NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW: National still holds a commanding lead over Labour and NZPA's average of published opinion polls shows that with its allies it would have a majority in Parliament and be able to form a government.
That is what would happen if the poll results turned into election night reality, but there is an important unknown factor -- New Zealand First.
Because it doesn't hold an electorate seat and is polling below 5 percent it wouldn't have any seats, but that could change if Labour supporters vote tactically in Tauranga.
Labour can't win the seat, and if enough of them voted for Winston Peters they could ensure his party stays alive.
Mr Peters is still insisting he can work with either Labour or National after the election, but he appears to be deluding himself.
Nearly every day since the campaign began, National's leader John Key has reaffirmed his decision to have nothing to do with NZ First or Mr Peters -- even if that means staying in opposition.
His latest comments, made on the campaign trail yesterday, included describing Mr Peters as "a walking soap opera".
If NZ First does get back with six or seven seats, the way the numbers stack up changes significantly.
National would be short of a majority and it would be up to the Maori Party to decide which of the main parties forms the next government.
And while NZ First could become National's nemesis, Labour has a problem with its ally the Greens.
It's not about which way they will go, the Greens are committed to supporting a Labour-led government.
But their strength in the polls -- they have climbed to 7.5 percent which means nine seats -- has happened at Labour's expense.
That's why Labour leader Helen Clark has started emphasising the importance of the party vote.
Labour needs the Greens, but it doesn't want to bleed votes to them.
Miss Clark also knows the Greens aren't going to rubber stamp a coalition or support agreement. She's going to have to negotiate policy concessions with them after the election before the deal is signed.
The poll results show National's partner party, ACT, is hovering between two and three seats.
Party leader Rodney Hide is almost certain to win Epsom and ACT won't have to reach the 5 percent threshold for seats.
It has two MPs now, Mr Hide and Heather Roy, and at number three is the former Labour finance minister Sir Roger Douglas.
Miss Clark is using the possibility of Sir Roger being back in Parliament to scare voters with the spectre of a rampant right-wing National/ACT government.
National's leader, John Key, has countered that by ruling out Sir Roger being in his cabinet, or anywhere near it.
Labour's big task in the remaining days before the election is to close the gap on National.
It has been closing, but very slowly. On current polling National stands at 47.9 percent and Labour at 35.2 percent. Labour has to at least move into the high 30s or low 40s to have a genuine prospect of winning a fourth term.
Miss Clark believes that's possible. She thinks the "mood for change" which was clearly evident just a few weeks ago is changing as voters start to realise how badly the international economic downturn could hurt New Zealand.
She is pushing the message that this isn't the time to change the government and rely on an untested administration to take the country through bad times.
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