Greens waltzing to nine seats - poll

STUFF.CO.NZ: On a week when it ruled out helping National form a government, the Green Party has continued to flourish in the polls.

Since the NZPA rolling poll began on August 27, the Green Party has increased its party vote support from 5.8 to 7.0 per cent.

No other party has increased their support by so much, with Labour (up one point) and ACT (up 0.7), the others on the climb.

Translated into seats, the Green Party post-election could have as many as nine MPs - three more than now - and ACT three, one more than in this Parliament.

As the average of the last six published polls, the NZPA rolling poll smooths fluctuations.

It showed National still held the winning edge, with 48.4 per cent support - good for 60 seats in a 124-seat House - ahead of Labour's 35.4.

National ally ACT was on 2.0 per cent, giving them a combined total of 63 seats - enough for a majority, if the NZPA poll was reflected in the November 8 election result.

Labour would take 44 seats, the Greens nine and the Progressive Party one - nine seats fewer than the National-ACT bloc.

Two weeks ago the gap was 14 seats.

NZ First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 per cent of votes cast to return to Parliament.

It is at 2.6 per cent on the party vote, and Tauranga electorate polling has leader Winston Peters behind National candidate Simon Bridges.

The NZPA rolling poll allocated the Maori Party six seats - based on current polls in the Maori electorate seats.

United Future and the Progressives were assumed to hold one electorate seat apiece.

NZPA rolling poll (with seats in brackets)*

Oct 22 - Oct 8 - Sept 24 - Sept 10 - Aug 27

Labour 35.4 (44) - 35.0 (44) - 36.1 (45) - 36.2 (46) - 34.4 (43)

National 48.4 (60) - 50.8 (64) - 49.2 (62) - 49.3 (62) - 50.7 (64)

NZ First 2.6 (0) - 3.0 (0) - 2.9 (0) - 3.3 (0) - 4.0 (0)

ACT 2.0 (3) - 1.6 (2) - 1.7 (2) - 1.5 (2) - 1.3 (2)

Greens 7.0 (9) - 5.6 (7) - 5.9 (7) - 5.7 (7) - 5.8 (7)

United Future 0.6 (1) - 0.2 (1) - 0.4 (1) - 0.3 (1) - 0.4 (1)

Maori Party 2.5 (6) - 2.1 (6) - 2.5 (6) - 2.6 (6) - 2.5 (6)

Progressives 0.0 (1) - 0.0 (1) - 0.0 (1) - 0.0 (1) - 0.0 (1)